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ShareNew York 20th District - Gibson vs. Murphy
New York Snapshot
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races: Gov | Sen (Special) | Sen | NY-1 | NY-2 | NY-4 | NY-13 | NY-19 | NY-22 | NY-23 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-27 | NY-29
----------PAST KEY RACES----------
2008: Pres | NY-13 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
2006: Governor | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
2004: President
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Gibson (R) | Murphy (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 54.9 | 45.1 | Gibson +9.8 |
| Siena | 10/23 - 10/25 | 676 LV | 51 | 42 | Gibson +9 |
| Siena | 9/12 - 9/14 | 603 LV | 37 | 54 | Murphy +17 |
| AAF/Ayers (R) | 7/28 - 8/1 | 400 LV | 40 | 45 | Murphy +5 |
Previous Election Results
| 2009: Murphy (D) 50.2%, Tedisco (R) 49.8% | 2008: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 48% |
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| 2008: Gillibrand (D) 62%, Treadwell (R) 38% | 2004: Bush (R) 53%, Kerry (D) 45% |
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| 2006: Gillibrand (D) 53%, Sweeney (R) 47% | 2000: Bush (R) 51%, Gore (D) 45% |
Race Analysis
10/28/10 -- This district sent Republicans to Congress for decades before electing Kirsten Gillibrand in 2006. Gillibrand was re-elected handily in 2008. After her appointment to a Senate seat in 2008, Democrats held onto her district by a few hundred votes. Congressman Murphy's polling was strong early on, but he seems to have faltered down the stretch, and is now in danger of losing.
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