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ShareNew Mexico 1st District - Barela vs. Heinrich
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Heinrich (D) | Barela (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 51.8 | 48.2 | Heinrich +3.6 |
| Albuquerque Journal | 10/27 - 10/28 | 400 LV | 46 | 49 | Barela +3 |
| Albuquerque Journal | 9/27 - 9/30 | 403 LV | 48 | 41 | Heinrich +7 |
| Daily Kos/PPP (D) | 9/25 - 9/26 | 540 LV | 50 | 43 | Heinrich +7 |
| AAF/Ayers (R) | 8/23 - 8/29 | 400 LV | 49 | 42 | Heinrich +7 |
| Albuquerque Journal | 8/23 - 8/27 | 402 LV | 47 | 41 | Heinrich +6 |
| SurveyUSA | 7/22 - 7/25 | 559 LV | 45 | 51 | Barela +6 |
| PPP (D) | 2/18 - 2/20 | 400 LV | 45 | 36 | Heinrich +9 |
Race Analysis
10/4/2010 -- When Democrats picked up this D+5 district in 2008, most observers assumed that it was theirs for good. But two years later, freshman Martin Heinrich finds himself in a surprisingly tough race. He faces off against Jon Barela, the former Albuquerque Hispano Chamber of Commerce President. The earliest polls showed a very tight race, but recently Heinrich has started to put some distance between himself and Barela. He's still an incumbent under 50 percent, so he has reason to worry, despite his lead and the partisan tilt of the district.
Previous Election Results
| 2008: Heinrich (D) 56%, White (R) 44% | 2008: Obama (D) 60%, McCain (R) 39% |
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| 2006: Wilson (R) 50.2%, Madrid (R) 49.8% | 2004: Kerry (D) 51%, Bush (R) 48% |
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| 2004: Wilson (R) 54%, Romero (D) 46% | 2000: Gore (D) 48%, Bush (R) 47% |
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