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ShareNew Hampshire 1st District - Guinta vs. Shea-Porter
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Guinta (R) | Shea-Porter (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 54.0 | 42.4 | Guinta +11.6 |
| WMUR/UNH | 10/27 - 10/31 | 434 LV | 46 | 39 | Guinta +7 |
| The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D) | 10/9 - 10/12 | 407 LV | 47 | 42 | Guinta +5 |
| WMUR/UNH | 10/7 - 10/12 | 339 LV | 48 | 36 | Guinta +12 |
| WMUR/UNH | 9/23 - 9/29 | 237 LV | 49 | 39 | Guinta +10 |
| American Res. Group | 9/22 - 9/26 | 400 LV | 50 | 40 | Guinta +10 |
| WMUR/UNH | 7/19 - 7/27 | 238 LV | 39 | 44 | Shea-Porter +5 |
| WMUR/UNH | 4/12 - 4/21 | 225 LV | 42 | 38 | Guinta +4 |
| PPP (D) | 4/17 - 4/18 | 647 LV | 46 | 45 | Guinta +1 |
| WMUR/UNH | 1/27 - 2/3 | 168 LV | 43 | 33 | Guinta +10 |
Previous Election Results
| 2008: Shea-Porter (D) 52%, Bradley (R) 46% | 2008: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 46% |
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| 2006: Shea-Porter (D) 51%, Bradley (R) 49% | 2004: Bush (R) 51%, Kerry (D) 48% | ||
| 2004: Bradley (R) 63%, Nadeau (D) 37% | 2000: Bush (R) 49%, Gore (D) 46% |
Race Analysis
10/27/10 -- Anti-war activist Carol Shea-Porter won this district in a stunning 2006 upset of Jeb Bradley. She held off Bradley again in the 2008 election. This time, however, she looks to be in big trouble against Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta. She's trailed in almost all of the polls, which is a horrendous place for an incumbent to be at this point in the game. She's the underdog.
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