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ShareMaine 1st District - Scontras vs. Pingree
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Pingree (D) | Scontras (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 56.8 | 43.2 | Pingree +13.6 |
| Critical Insights | 10/27 - 10/28 | 295 LV | 41 | 45 | Scontras +4 |
| Critical Insights | 10/13 - 10/17 | 295 LV | 45 | 40 | Pingree +5 |
| Pan Atlantic SMS | 10/11 - 10/15 | LV | 49 | 33 | Pingree +16 |
| Critical Insights | 10/10 - 10/11 | 305 LV | 48 | 33 | Pingree +15 |
| PineTreePolitics/MECPO | 10/4 - 10/7 | 346 LV | 46 | 38 | Pingree +8 |
| Critical Insights | 9/27 - 9/27 | 187 LV | 54 | 26 | Pingree +28 |
| Critical Insights | 9/13 - 9/13 | 316 LV | 53 | 29 | Pingree +24 |
| PPP (D) | 9/2 - 9/6 | 790 LV | 47 | 38 | Pingree +9 |
Previous Election Results
| 2008: Pingree (D) 55%, Summers (R) 45% | 2008: Obama (D) 61%, McCain (R) 38% |
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| 2006: Allen (D) 61%, Curley (R) 31% | 2004: Kerry (D) 5%, Bush (R) 43% |
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| 2004: Allen (D) 60%, Summers (R) 40% | 2000: Gore (D) 50%, Bush (R) 43% |
Race Analysis
10/29/10 -- Pingree is getting hit on her use of a private jet, and polls show her down. All Scontras has to do is peel off ten percent of her supporters from '08 and he wins. It's not a particularly monumental task.
10/27/10 -- Pingree only won with 55 percent of the vote in 2008, and this is a very different year than 2008. A Republican last won this district in 1994, but the polling suggests that an upset by Dean Scontras isn't out of the question. Maine isn't nearly as Democratic as its Presidential voting suggests.
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