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ShareIllinois 11th District - Kinzinger vs. Halvorson
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Kinzinger (R) | Halvorson (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 57.3 | 42.7 | Kinzinger +14.6 |
| WeAskAmerica | 10/31 - 10/31 | 829 LV | 55 | 45 | Kinzinger +10 |
| The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D) | 9/28 - 9/30 | 401 LV | 49 | 31 | Kinzinger +18 |
| WeAskAmerica | 8/4 - 8/4 | 1015 RV | 52 | 32 | Kinzinger +20 |
Race Analysis
10/6/10 -- We're 27 days away from Election Day, and Debbie Halvorson finds herself 20 points down in two different polls. It would be a comeback of historic proportions if she managed to win.
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The 11th Congressional District is an irregularly-shaped slice of downstate Illinois and exurban Chicago, cutting across the state from Indiana almost to Iowa, with a salient extending down into Bloomington. It is marginal political territory, casting its votes for Barack Obama and George W. Bush at almost exactly their national average.
The Representative from the 11th is former state Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson. Halvorson won a landslide 58-34 win in 2008 after Representative Jerry Weller decided to retire in the face of scandal. Halvorson has supported most of the Obama administration’s major initiatives, including the stimulus, cap-and-trade and the health care bill.
Halvorson will face off against ex-McLean County (Bloomington) Commissioner Adam Kinzinger, who has managed to raise about half of what the incumbent has raised. There has been a fair amount of polling in the district, none of which is good for Halvorson. We Ask America showed her trailing Kinzinger 42-30, while the Republican polling outfit Public Opinion Strategies shows her trailing at 44-38. These are obviously rough numbers for an incumbent.
Previous Election Results
| 2008: Halvorson (D) 58%, Ozinga (R) 35% | 2008: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 45% |
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| 2006: Weller (R) 55%, Pavich (D) 45% | 2004: Bush (R) 53%, Kerry (D) 46% | ||
| 2004: Wller (R) 59%, Renner (D) 41% | 2000: Bush (R) 50%, Gore (D) 48% |
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