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ShareIowa 2nd District - Miller-Meeks vs. Loebsack
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Loebsack (D) | Miller-Meeks (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 51.0 | 46.0 | Loebsack +5.0 |
| Voter/Consumer Res/AFF (R) | 8/31 - 9/3 | 300 RV | 47 | 39 | Loebsack +8 |
Race Analysis
10/27/10 -- This is another badly-underpolled district. The PVI would suggest that no Republican could win here again, but Loebsack doesn't have the profile of a particularly strong incumbent, and he ran three points behind President Obama in 2008. Our bet is that he survives, but not by a particularly large margin.
----------Race Preview---------
For three decades, southeastern Iowa was represented by a mild-mannered Republican congressman named Jim Leach. Notwithstanding the Democratic tilt of the district -- Kerry won 55 percent of the vote in 2004 – Leach managed to hang on through a number of tough re-election efforts. But 2006 proved to be too much even for a congressman with Leach’s moderate record, and he lost to Dave Loebsack, a professor of international relations at Cornell College.
Loebsack has been a reliably liberal vote, but it didn’t hurt him in 2008 against ophthalmologist Mariannette Miller-Meeks; he cruised to a 57 percent to 39 percent victory, though he ran a few points behind Barack Obama. Miller-Meeks is back for a rematch in what looks to be a very different environment. By the end of the second quarter she’d already raised as much as she had in all of 2008; almost half as much as Loebsack. Loebsack starts as the favorite, but there’s real upset potential here.
Previous Election Results
| 2008: Loebsack (D) 57%, Miller-Meeks (R) 39% | 2008: Obama (D) 60%, McCain (R) 39% |
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| 2006: Loesback (D) 51%, Leach (R) 49% | 2004: Kerry (D) 55%, Bush (R) 44% | ||
| 2004: Leach (R) 59%, Franker (D) 39% | 2000: Gore (D) 53%, Bush (R) 43% |
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