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ShareDelaware At-Large - Carney vs. Urquhart
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Carney (D) | Urquhart (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 56.8 | 41.0 | Carney +15.8 |
| Monmouth University | 10/25 - 10/27 | 1171 LV | 51 | 44 | Carney +7 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | 10/20 - 10/26 | 797 LV | 53 | 36 | Carney +17 |
| Monmouth University | 10/8 - 10/11 | 790 LV | 53 | 44 | Carney +9 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | 9/27 - 10/3 | 801 LV | 51 | 36 | Carney +15 |
| PPP (D) | 9/11 - 9/12 | 958 LV | 48 | 37 | Carney +11 |
| Daily Kos/PPP (D) | 8/7 - 8/8 | 620 RV | 48 | 30 | Carney +18 |
Race Analysis
The First State, so named because of its 1787 sprint to ratifying the Constitution (it beat out Pennsylvania by five days), is a combination of three states. Downstate in Sussex and Kent Counties, there is a distinct Southern flair; this is the area Joe Biden was referring to in 2008 when he famously declared that if Maryland hadn’t been in the way, Delaware would have gone with the South. Wilmington, at the northern tip, offers up a heavily Democratic city for the state.
The rest of the state is the rest of New Castle County: suburbs of Wilmington and, increasingly Philadelphia. Like most Northern suburbs, it swung toward the Democrats in the 1990s and 2002, but it still shows a willingness to vote for moderate Republican candidates. From 1992 through 2008 it did just that, providing the margin of victory for moderate Republican Mike Castle.
Castle, of course, ran for the Senate in 2010, and lost the primary to the more conservative Christine O’Donnell. But he wasn’t the only moderate to lose. Michele Rollins lost her primary for the open House seat to conservative businessman Glen Urquhart. Urquhart will face off against Lieutenant Governor John Carney. Most polling has shown Carney with a lead, but under 50 percent. Urquhart can win in this environment, but Carney starts as the solid favorite.
Previous Election Results
| 2008: Castle (R) 61%, Hartley-Nagle (D) 38% | 2008: Obama (D) 62%, McCain (R) 37% |
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| 2006: Castle (R) 57%, Spivack (D) 39% | 2004: Kerry (D) 53%, Bush (R) 46% |
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| 2004: Castle (R) 70%, Donnelly (D) 30% | 2000: Gore (D) 55% Bush (R) 42% |
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