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ShareRhode Island Governor - Chafee vs. Caprio vs. Robitaille
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Chafee (I) | Robitaille (R) | Caprio (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 36.1 | 33.6 | 23.0 | Chafee +2.5 |
| RCP Average | 10/21 - 10/25 | -- | 34.3 | 26.3 | 26.3 | Chafee +8.0 |
| NBC 10/Quest Research | 10/23 - 10/25 | 523 LV | 35 | 28 | 25 | Chafee +7 |
| WPRI/Fleming | 10/21 - 10/25 | 500 LV | 33 | 26 | 26 | Chafee +7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/21 - 10/21 | 750 LV | 35 | 25 | 28 | Chafee +7 |
See All Rhode Island Governor - Chafee vs. Caprio vs. Robitaille Polling Data
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Race Analysis
10/28/10 -- Caprio seems to have faded a bit, perhaps as a result of his comments suggesting that President Obama could take his endorsement and "shove it." At the same time, Republican Robitaille seems to be surging a bit, and has even surpassed Caprio in the latest poll.
10/14/10 -- Caprio has gained ground in the race, which is basically still between him and Chafee. It isn't really clear who the Republican is drawing from here; Chafee is arguably running to Caprio's left.
----------Race Preview---------
Rhode Island, our nation’s smallest state, is also probably the most heavily Democratic. The switch to Democratic dominance came abruptly in 1935, when the “bloodless revolution” broke the back of the conservative Republican machine that had managed to dominate the state long after it became a minority (Democrats declared the state Supreme Court and other state institutions still dominated by Republicans vacant, eliminating the inertia that slowed realignment in most other states). Republicans intermittently controlled the state Senate into the 1950s, but the state House and U.S. Senate seats were almost exclusively Democratic from there on out.
Despite this strong Democratic tilt, Republicans can still win the Governor’s mansion, and indeed the Democrats have won only one gubernatorial election since 1984. Republicans typically win by running against the Democratic machine on a reform platform. But after controlling the governor’s mansion for 16 straight years, the reform platform is a bit unconvincing.
Not that the Democrats are likely to win this time around. General Treasurer Frank Caprio is a strong candidate, but the leading candidate in most polls is former Senator Lincoln Chafee. Chafee has shed his Republican label and now considers himself an Independent. Chafee was never really that unpopular, and lost his seat more as part of an effort to “send a message to Washington” as anything else. His candidacy offers Rhode Islanders a way to give the legislature a check without electing a Republican.
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Chafee (I) | Robitaille (R) | Caprio (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 36.1 | 33.6 | 23.0 | Chafee +2.5 |
| RCP Average | 10/21 - 10/25 | -- | 34.3 | 26.3 | 26.3 | Chafee +8.0 |
| NBC 10/Quest Research | 10/23 - 10/25 | 523 LV | 35 | 28 | 25 | Chafee +7 |
| WPRI/Fleming | 10/21 - 10/25 | 500 LV | 33 | 26 | 26 | Chafee +7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/21 - 10/21 | 750 LV | 35 | 25 | 28 | Chafee +7 |
| NBC 10/Quest Research | 10/4 - 10/6 | 492 LV | 33 | 22 | 37 | Caprio +4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/4 - 10/4 | 750 LV | 33 | 22 | 30 | Chafee +3 |
| Brown University | 9/27 - 9/29 | 565 RV | 23 | 14 | 30 | Caprio +7 |
| WPRI/Fleming | 9/22 - 9/26 | 500 LV | 30 | 19 | 33 | Caprio +3 |
| NBC 10/Quest Research | 9/15 - 9/17 | 495 LV | 24 | 13 | 36 | Caprio +12 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/16 - 9/16 | 500 LV | 33 | 23 | 30 | Chafee +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/17 - 8/17 | 750 LV | 32 | 20 | 38 | Caprio +6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/21 - 7/21 | 500 LV | 37 | 23 | 30 | Chafee +7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 5/27 - 5/27 | 500 LV | 35 | 25 | 32 | Chafee +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 4/21 - 4/21 | 500 LV | 33 | 21 | 33 | Tie |
| Rasmussen Reports | 3/25 - 3/25 | 500 LV | 39 | 22 | 28 | Chafee +11 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2/25 - 2/25 | 500 LV | 37 | 19 | 27 | Chafee +10 |
| Brown University | 2/9 - 2/12 | 609 LV | 34 | 12 | 28 | Chafee +6 |
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