Maryland Governor - Ehrlich vs. O'Malley
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Ehrlich (R) | O'Malley (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 42.3 | 55.8 | O\'Malley +13.5 |
| RCP Average | 10/11 - 10/24 | -- | 40.5 | 51.3 | O\'Malley +10.8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/24 - 10/24 | 750 LV | 42 | 52 | O\'Malley +10 |
| Washington Post | 10/19 - 10/22 | 1434 LV | 40 | 54 | O\'Malley +14 |
| Baltimore Sun/OpinionWorks | 10/15 - 10/20 | 798 LV | 38 | 52 | O\'Malley +14 |
| Gonzales Research | 10/11 - 10/16 | 816 LV | 42 | 47 | O\'Malley +5 |
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Race Analysis
10/10/10 -- O'Malley seems to have stormed out to a substantial lead, somewhere around eight points. It's not time to put a fork in Ehrlich by any stretch of the imagination, but he needs to start closing that gap, quickly, if he is going to have a chance at winning here.
----------Race Preview---------
Maryland is increasingly a city-state – all of its districts are partially in either metropolitan Washington, D.C. or Baltimore. The state has long been a Democratic stronghold. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, a Democratic machine in Baltimore combined with voters on the culturally southern eastern shore to form a Democratic majority. In the later 20th century, the Democrats lost the eastern shore, but found increasingly receptive voters in the suburbs of D.C. Post Civil War, the state has elected only six Republican governors, and only one has managed a second term.
The last Republican Governor, Bob Ehrlich, won an open seat against Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, a disappointing candidate for Democrats, in 2002. Ehrlich had a tempestuous relationship with the Democratic legislature, and in 2006 he was defeated by Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley.
O’Malley’s approval ratings declined after imposition of a tax hike and other measures designed to balance the state’s budget. Ehrlich announced his intention to seek a rematch earlier this year. Both men are below 50 percent in the polls, and since both are incumbents of sorts, the usual “incumbent rule” may not apply.
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Ehrlich (R) | O'Malley (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 42.3 | 55.8 | O\'Malley +13.5 |
| RCP Average | 10/11 - 10/24 | -- | 40.5 | 51.3 | O\'Malley +10.8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/24 - 10/24 | 750 LV | 42 | 52 | O\'Malley +10 |
| Washington Post | 10/19 - 10/22 | 1434 LV | 40 | 54 | O\'Malley +14 |
| Baltimore Sun/OpinionWorks | 10/15 - 10/20 | 798 LV | 38 | 52 | O\'Malley +14 |
| Gonzales Research | 10/11 - 10/16 | 816 LV | 42 | 47 | O\'Malley +5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/4 - 10/4 | 750 LV | 41 | 49 | O\'Malley +8 |
| Washington Post | 9/22 - 9/26 | 730 LV | 41 | 52 | O\'Malley +11 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/15 - 9/15 | 750 LV | 47 | 50 | O\'Malley +3 |
| OpinionWorks | 8/13 - 8/18 | 600 LV | 41 | 47 | O\'Malley +6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/17 - 8/17 | 750 LV | 47 | 47 | Tie |
| Gonzales Research | 7/13 - 7/21 | 807 LV | 42 | 45 | O\'Malley +3 |
| PPP (D) | 7/10 - 7/12 | 569 RV | 42 | 45 | O\'Malley +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/8 - 7/8 | 500 LV | 47 | 46 | Ehrlich +1 |
| Magellan Strategies (R) | 6/29 - 6/29 | 752 LV | 46 | 43 | Ehrlich +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 6/8 - 6/8 | 500 LV | 45 | 45 | Tie |
| Washington Post | 5/3 - 5/6 | 851 RV | 41 | 49 | O\'Malley +8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 4/20 - 4/20 | 500 LV | 44 | 47 | O\'Malley +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2/23 - 2/23 | 500 LV | 43 | 49 | O\'Malley +6 |
| Gonzales Research | 1/13 - 1/17 | 816 RV | 39 | 48 | O\'Malley +9 |
| Clarus Research | 10/30 - 11/5 | 637 RV | 40 | 47 | O\'Malley +7 |
| Gonzales Research | 9/8 - 9/17 | 833 RV | 38 | 49 | O\'Malley +11 |