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ShareIllinois Governor - Brady vs. Quinn
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Brady (R) | Quinn (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 46.1 | 46.6 | Quinn +0.5 |
| RCP Average | 10/18 - 10/31 | -- | 44.0 | 39.3 | Brady +4.7 | PPP (D) | 10/30 - 10/31 | 814 LV | 45 | 40 | Brady +5 | FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 10/30 - 10/30 | 1000 LV | 44 | 38 | Brady +6 | Chicago Tribune | 10/18 - 10/22 | 700 LV | 43 | 39 | Brady +4 | Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon | 10/18 - 10/20 | 625 LV | 44 | 40 | Brady +4 |
See All Illinois Governor - Brady vs. Quinn Polling Data
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Race Analysis
11/2/10 7:45am -- Brady has endured a barrage of attacks, and third parties are getting a huge portion of the vote here. But his lead over Quinn is holding up, and he is the favorite today.
10/10/10 -- The polls in this race have recently been all over the place, varying from an 8-point Brady lead to a 6-point Quinn lead. One thing that seems consistent is that the polls show Quinn's base coming home; his average in the polls has improved from the low 30s to the high 30s. Two things could be going on here: the Democrats' advertisements against Brady may be taking their toll, or Quinn could be enjoying a "dead cat bounce." Regardless, an incumbent pulling his numbers up into the high 30s isn't all that much to celebrate.
----------Race Preview---------
Had you asked a political observer 30 years ago whether an open governor’s race in Illinois would be competitive, you’d likely have received a look normally reserved for those who walk off of UFO’s. Illinois has historically been one of the more politically competitive states in the United States, and a governor’s race in Illinois was supposed to be close.
But in recent years it has become more surprising to hear that a Republican was competitive for a seat in Illinois. Even while beset by allegations of ethical impropriety, Governor Rod Blagojevich was able to win re-election handily in 2006 against the lone Republican statewide officeholder. That set off a series of events that led to the current competitive race. In early 2009, Blagojevich was unanimously impeached and removed from office, leaving his Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn in charge of the state.
That’s really the root of Quinn’s problems. It’s not easy to be a governor of any state in these troubling economic times, but adding “Rod Blagojevich’s Lieutenant” to the resume would be a kiss of death in all but the most Democratic states. Of course, Illinois is one of the most Democratic states, and the GOP may have helped the governor by nominating Bill Brady, a conservative downstate state senator. There is a reasonable chance that Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents will come home to Quinn in the end.
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Brady (R) | Quinn (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 46.1 | 46.6 | Quinn +0.5 |
| RCP Average | 10/18 - 10/31 | -- | 44.0 | 39.3 | Brady +4.7 |
| PPP (D) | 10/30 - 10/31 | 814 LV | 45 | 40 | Brady +5 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 10/30 - 10/30 | 1000 LV | 44 | 38 | Brady +6 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 10/23 - 10/23 | 1000 LV | 44 | 39 | Brady +5 |
| Chicago Tribune | 10/18 - 10/22 | 700 LV | 43 | 39 | Brady +4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/20 - 10/20 | 750 LV | 45 | 37 | Brady +8 |
| Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon | 10/18 - 10/20 | 625 LV | 44 | 40 | Brady +4 |
| PPP (D) | 10/14 - 10/16 | 557 LV | 42 | 41 | Brady +1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/12 - 10/12 | 750 LV | 46 | 40 | Brady +6 |
| The Simon Poll/SIU | 9/30 - 10/10 | 758 LV | 38 | 30 | Brady +8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/4 - 10/4 | 500 LV | 46 | 38 | Brady +8 |
| Suffolk University | 9/30 - 10/3 | 500 LV | 37 | 43 | Quinn +6 |
| Chicago Tribune | 9/24 - 9/28 | 600 LV | 38 | 39 | Quinn +1 |
| CNN/Time | 9/24 - 9/28 | 828 LV | 40 | 38 | Brady +2 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 9/25 - 9/25 | 1000 LV | 46 | 36 | Brady +10 |
| PPP (D) | 9/23 - 9/26 | 470 LV | 42 | 35 | Brady +7 |
| WeAskAmerica | 9/13 - 9/13 | 1330 LV | 42 | 32 | Brady +10 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/12 - 9/12 | 750 LV | 50 | 37 | Brady +13 |
| Chicago Tribune | 8/28 - 9/1 | 600 LV | 37 | 32 | Brady +5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/23 - 8/23 | 750 LV | 49 | 41 | Brady +8 |
| PPP (D) | 8/14 - 8/15 | 576 LV | 39 | 30 | Brady +9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/9 - 8/9 | 750 LV | 48 | 35 | Brady +13 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/26 - 7/26 | 750 LV | 44 | 37 | Brady +7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/7 - 7/7 | 500 LV | 43 | 40 | Brady +3 |
| PPP (D) | 6/12 - 6/13 | 552 LV | 34 | 30 | Brady +4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 6/7 - 6/7 | 500 LV | 47 | 36 | Brady +11 |
| R2000/Daily Kos (D)** | 5/3 - 5/5 | 600 LV | 39 | 36 | Brady +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 4/28 - 4/28 | 500 LV | 45 | 38 | Brady +7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 4/5 - 4/5 | 500 LV | 45 | 38 | Brady +7 |
| PPP (D) | 4/1 - 4/5 | 591 LV | 43 | 33 | Brady +10 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 3/8 - 3/8 | 500 LV | 47 | 37 | Brady +10 |
| R2000/Daily Kos (D)** | 2/22 - 2/24 | 600 LV | 32 | 47 | Quinn +15 |
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