RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Georgia Governor

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Candidates

Nathan Deal (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Roy Barnes (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Georgia Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races: Senate | GA-2 | GA-8 | GA-12

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Deal (R)	Barnes (D)	Spread
Final Results	--	--	52.9	43.1	Deal +9.8
RCP Average	10/24 - 10/28	--	48.0	40.5	Deal +7.5
Mason-Dixon	10/26 - 10/28	625 LV	47	40	Deal +7
Landmark (R)	10/26 - 10/26	1686 LV	49	42	Deal +7
Insider Advantage	10/24 - 10/24	2119 LV	47	41	Deal +6
Rasmussen Reports	10/24 - 10/24	750 LV	49	39	Deal +10

See All Georgia Governor - Deal vs. Barnes Polling Data

Race Analysis

10/10/10 -- Sure enough, Barnes' numbers have remained mired in the low 40s, while Deal is starting to approach 50 percent. This isn't over by a longshot, but it really looks as if Barnes is just the wrong candidate running in the wrong year.

----------Race Preview---------

From January 12, 1872 through January 12, 2003, Georgia had nothing but Democratic governors. The state didn’t have a Republican base, and Democratic primaries were usually decided on a friends-and-neighbors basis, rather than on the basis of ideological or geographical splits, so the Republican Party had to be built from scratch. And so, the GOP grew in urban Atlanta, spread to suburban Atlanta, and only in 2002 broke through to the rural reaches of the state.

That year, Sonny Perdue ousted Roy Barnes, who had been mentioned as a possible presidential contender. Perdue is term-limited in 2010, and both Republicans and Democrats had high-profile fights for the nomination. For the Democrats, former Governor Barnes is making a comeback bid, and handily defeated Attorney General Thurbert Baker in the primary. On the Republican side, former Secretary of State Karen Handel lost narrowly to Congressman Nathan Deal.

The $64,000 question in the race is Barnes. Most polling has shown Barnes getting about 44 percent of the vote, close to the 46 percent he received in 2002, while the crosstabs tend to show Barnes has already solidified his Democratic base, while independents and Republicans are in flux. This probably leaves the Republicans with the most room for growth. There’s a reasonable chance that, come November, Georgians will ultimately remember why they fired Barnes in the first place (see also Ronnie Musgrove in the 2008 Mississippi Senate race).

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Deal (R)	Barnes (D)	Spread
Final Results	--	--	52.9	43.1	Deal +9.8
RCP Average	10/24 - 10/28	--	48.0	40.5	Deal +7.5
Mason-Dixon	10/26 - 10/28	625 LV	47	40	Deal +7
Landmark (R)	10/26 - 10/26	1686 LV	49	42	Deal +7
Insider Advantage	10/24 - 10/24	2119 LV	47	41	Deal +6
Rasmussen Reports	10/24 - 10/24	750 LV	49	39	Deal +10
SurveyUSA	10/21 - 10/24	601 LV	49	39	Deal +10
Landmark (R)	10/19 - 10/19	3277 LV	47	39	Deal +8
Insider Advantage	10/18 - 10/18	507 LV	45	40	Deal +5
Insider Advantage	10/10 - 10/10	522 LV	49	41	Deal +8
Rasmussen Reports	10/6 - 10/6	750 LV	50	41	Deal +9
Insider Advantage	9/27 - 9/27	412 LV	45	37	Deal +8
Rasmussen Reports	9/21 - 9/21	500 LV	45	39	Deal +6
Insider Advantage	9/16 - 9/16	632 LV	42	42	Tie
Mason-Dixon	9/13 - 9/15	625 LV	45	41	Deal +4
SurveyUSA	9/10 - 9/12	599 LV	49	38	Deal +11
Insider Advantage	8/18 - 8/18	554 RV	45	41	Deal +4
Rasmussen Reports	8/11 - 8/11	500 LV	51	42	Deal +9
Rasmussen Reports	7/21 - 7/21	500 LV	49	43	Deal +6
Rasmussen Reports	5/20 - 5/20	500 LV	47	40	Deal +7
Rasmussen Reports	4/22 - 4/22	500 LV	46	39	Deal +7
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**	4/5 - 4/7	600 LV	42	44	Barnes +2
Rasmussen Reports	3/17 - 3/17	500 LV	43	40	Deal +3
PPP (D)	2/26 - 2/28	596 LV	38	43	Barnes +5
Rasmussen Reports	2/18 - 2/18	500 LV	43	37	Deal +6