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ShareCalifornia Governor - Whitman vs. Brown
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Brown (D) | Whitman (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 53.1 | 41.7 | Brown +11.4 |
| RCP Average | 10/26 - 10/31 | -- | 49.3 | 42.7 | Brown +6.6 | PPP (D) | 10/29 - 10/31 | 882 LV | 51 | 46 | Brown +5 | SurveyUSA | 10/26 - 10/31 | 587 LV | 48 | 37 | Brown +11 | Rasmussen Reports | 10/27 - 10/27 | 750 LV | 49 | 45 | Brown +4 |
See All California Governor - Whitman vs. Brown Polling Data
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Race Analysis
10/26/10 -- With less than a week to go, Whitman has an awful lot of ground to make up here. Some of these pollsters may well be overstating the number of Democrats in the electorate, but even after taking that into account, Whitman is still trailing.
10/20/10 -- Republican polling firm Wilson Research sees a slight lead for Republican Meg Whitman. But every other pollster has seen a slight Democratic lead since mid-September.
10/4/10 -- The first poll taken in the aftermath of the revelation that Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman had hired an illegal immigrant as a housekeeper shows that she may be taking on water. Rasmussen Reports shows Whitman trailing former Governor Jerry Brown 49 percent to 44 percent.
The previous Rasmussen poll had shown Brown up by one point, 47 percent to 46 percent. It is important to note that this movement is well within the poll's error margin, so we should wait to see if other pollsters show similar movement before drawing any hard and fast conclusions.
----------Race Preview---------
California gubernatorial politics are enigmatic. Although Democrats have had a massive registration advantage in California since the 1930s, they’ve only occupied the Governor’s mansion for 24 of the last 80 years. The last Democratic governorship came to a particularly inglorious end, as Gray Davis was recalled from office less than a year after winning re-election to a second term.
Davis was replaced by Republican actor and education activist Arnold Schwarzenegger. Schwarzenegger has had a tumultuous two terms, shifting to the left after being rebuked by voters on several cherished ballot initiatives. He leaves office with approval ratings hovering in the twenties and thirties, which would make a same-party succession nearly impossible in a conventional year.
But 2010 is not shaping up to be a normal year. Republicans have nominated Meg Whitman, the former CEO of eBay, while the Democrats have nominated former Governor Jerry Brown, a fixture in California politics who was first elected statewide in 1970. The fundamentals of the state favor Brown, but the "change factor" favors Whitman, making this a great race to watch.
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Brown (D) | Whitman (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 53.1 | 41.7 | Brown +11.4 |
| RCP Average | 10/26 - 10/31 | -- | 49.3 | 42.7 | Brown +6.6 |
| PPP (D) | 10/29 - 10/31 | 882 LV | 51 | 46 | Brown +5 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/26 - 10/31 | 587 LV | 48 | 37 | Brown +11 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/27 - 10/27 | 750 LV | 49 | 45 | Brown +4 |
| CNN/Time | 10/20 - 10/26 | 888 LV | 51 | 44 | Brown +7 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/21 - 10/25 | 594 LV | 46 | 38 | Brown +8 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 10/23 - 10/23 | 1000 LV | 50 | 41 | Brown +9 |
| Suffolk University | 10/21 - 10/24 | 600 LV | 50 | 42 | Brown +8 |
| PPP (D) | 10/21 - 10/23 | 622 LV | 53 | 42 | Brown +11 |
| Field | 10/14 - 10/26 | 1092 LV | 49 | 39 | Brown +10 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/21 - 10/21 | 750 LV | 48 | 42 | Brown +6 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/15 - 10/18 | 621 LV | 47 | 40 | Brown +7 |
| LA Times/USC | 10/13 - 10/20 | 922 LV | 52 | 39 | Brown +13 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 10/16 - 10/16 | 1000 LV | 48 | 43 | Brown +5 |
| PPIC | 10/10 - 10/17 | 1067 LV | 44 | 36 | Brown +8 |
| Wilson Research (R) | 10/13 - 10/14 | 800 LV | 44 | 45 | Whitman +1 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 10/12 - 10/14 | 448 LV | 48 | 44 | Brown +4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/13 - 10/13 | 750 LV | 50 | 44 | Brown +6 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 10/2 - 10/4 | 448 LV | 50 | 43 | Brown +7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/3 - 10/3 | 750 LV | 49 | 44 | Brown +5 |
| SurveyUSA | 9/30 - 10/3 | 670 LV | 47 | 43 | Brown +4 |
| CNN/Time | 9/24 - 9/28 | 786 LV | 52 | 43 | Brown +9 |
| PPIC | 9/19 - 9/26 | 1104 LV | 37 | 38 | Whitman +1 |
| SurveyUSA | 9/19 - 9/21 | 610 LV | 46 | 43 | Brown +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/20 - 9/20 | 750 LV | 47 | 46 | Brown +1 |
| LA Times/USC | 9/15 - 9/22 | 887 LV | 49 | 44 | Brown +5 |
| Field | 9/14 - 9/21 | 599 LV | 41 | 41 | Tie |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 9/18 - 9/18 | 1000 LV | 45 | 45 | Tie |
| PPP (D) | 9/14 - 9/16 | 630 LV | 47 | 42 | Brown +5 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 9/11 - 9/11 | 1000 LV | 43 | 49 | Whitman +6 |
| CNN/Time | 9/2 - 9/7 | 866 RV | 46 | 48 | Whitman +2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/6 - 9/6 | 750 LV | 45 | 48 | Whitman +3 |
| SurveyUSA | 8/31 - 9/1 | 569 LV | 40 | 47 | Whitman +7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/24 - 8/24 | 750 LV | 43 | 51 | Whitman +8 |
| SurveyUSA | 8/9 - 8/11 | 602 LV | 43 | 44 | Whitman +1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/3 - 8/3 | 750 LV | 43 | 41 | Brown +2 |
| PPP (D) | 7/23 - 7/25 | 614 RV | 46 | 40 | Brown +6 |
| PPIC | 7/6 - 7/20 | 1321 LV | 37 | 34 | Brown +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/12 - 7/12 | 500 LV | 46 | 47 | Whitman +1 |
| SurveyUSA | 7/8 - 7/11 | 614 LV | 39 | 46 | Whitman +7 |
| Field | 6/22 - 7/5 | 1005 LV | 44 | 43 | Brown +1 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 6/25 - 6/27 | 600 RV | 45 | 39 | Brown +6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 6/9 - 6/9 | 500 LV | 45 | 44 | Brown +1 |
| LA Times/USC | 5/19 - 5/26 | 521 LV | 44 | 38 | Brown +6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 5/24 - 5/24 | 500 LV | 45 | 41 | Brown +4 |
| PPP (D) | 5/21 - 5/23 | 921 RV | 48 | 36 | Brown +12 |
| R2000/Daily Kos (D)** | 5/17 - 5/19 | 600 LV | 46 | 42 | Brown +4 |
| PPIC | 5/9 - 5/16 | 1168 LV | 42 | 37 | Brown +5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 4/19 - 4/19 | 500 LV | 44 | 38 | Brown +6 |
| LA Times/USC | 3/23 - 3/30 | 1500 RV | 41 | 44 | Whitman +3 |
| PPIC | 3/9 - 3/16 | 1102 LV | 39 | 45 | Whitman +6 |
| Field | 3/9 - 3/15 | 748 LV | 43 | 46 | Whitman +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 3/15 - 3/15 | 500 LV | 40 | 40 | Tie |
| R2000/Daily Kos (D)** | 3/8 - 3/10 | 600 LV | 45 | 41 | Brown +4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2/15 - 2/15 | 500 LV | 43 | 43 | Tie |
| PPIC | 1/12 - 1/19 | 1223 LV | 41 | 36 | Brown +5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1/19 - 1/19 | 500 LV | 43 | 39 | Brown +4 |
| Field | 1/5 - 1/17 | 958 LV | 46 | 36 | Brown +10 |
| PPIC | 12/1 - 12/8 | 963 LV | 43 | 37 | Brown +6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 11/17 - 11/17 | 500 LV | 41 | 41 | Tie |
| Field | 9/18 - 10/5 | 1005 RV | 50 | 29 | Brown +21 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/24 - 9/24 | 500 LV | 44 | 35 | Brown +9 |
| R2000/Daily Kos (D)** | 8/9 - 8/12 | 600 LV | 42 | 36 | Brown +6 |
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