Race Summary

Two former governors are vying for the chance to succeed John Warner, the distinguished, five-term Republican senator from Virginia.

Mark Warner is considered a successful Democratic governor in a southern, Republican state. This is mostly true, though the increasingly influential Northern Virginia is considered  part of the D.C. metro area rather than part of the South, and it's helping make Virginia more purple than red. Warner worked with a GOP-controlled Legislature to vastly improve the state's budget situation, and his lieutenant governor, Tim Kaine, went on to win the governorship in 2005, thanks in large part to Warner's popularity. It was for these reasons that Warner was viewed by many as a viable candidate for president -- he began running for the office in 2006, but dropped his bid by October of that year.

Jim Gilmore was the immediate predecessor of Mark Warner in the governor's mansion and succeeded George Allen. It was a campaign promise to end Virginia's automobile property tax that got Gilmore elected governor, and he went on to cut taxes throughout his tenure. He, too, flirted with a presidential run, attempting to paint himself as the most conservative of the Republican candidates, but dropped his bid in July 2007. Before Gilmore jumped into the Senate race, Rep. Tom Davis was considered the likely Republican nominee. But after the state GOP decided on a nominating convention rather than a primary, Davis opted against running and announced his expected retirement from the House. Gilmore would have been favored to defeat the more moderate Davis at convention, as it often attracts more conservative supporters.

Gilmore had a more difficult nominating convention than many expected, defeating State Del. Bob Marshall with just 50.3% of the May 31 convention votes. This result could show a split in Gilmore's base and spell trouble for him in November. While Virginia has voted Republican in 10 straight presidential elections, Bush never won more than 54% and in 2006 a Republican senator was ousted. Warner's popularity in the state has continued on since he left office in January 2006; and with the influence the largely-Democratic Northern Virginia has had on recent statewide elections, he is the favorite to win this seat.

Previous Election Results

Senate
2006: Webb (D) 50, Allen (R) 49
2002: J. Warner (R) 83, Spannaus (I) 10
2000: Allen (R) 52, Robb (D) 48
1996: J. Warner (R) 52, M. Warner (D) 47

President
2004: Bush (R) 54, Kerry (D) 45
2000: Bush (R) 52, Gore (D) 44
1996: Dole (R) 51, Clinton (D) 41

Demographics

Population (2007 est.): 7,712,091
Registered Voters: n/a
Occupation: Blue Collar 22.1% | White Collar 63.7% | Gray Collar 14.2%
Race: White 70.2% | Hispanic 4.7% | Asian 3.7% | Black 19.4%