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| Poll | Date | Sample | Udall (D) | Pearce (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen | 08/20 - 08/20 | 700 LV | 52 | 44 | Udall +8 |
| Rasmussen | 07/24 - 07/24 | 700 LV | 61 | 35 | Udall +26 |
| Rasmussen | 06/19 - 06/19 | 500 LV | 58 | 30 | Udall +28 |
| Rasmussen | 05/14 - 05/14 | 500 LV | 53 | 37 | Udall +16 |
| SurveyUSA | 05/12 - 05/14 | 1827 RV | 60 | 36 | Udall +24 |
| Rasmussen | 04/08 - 04/08 | 500 LV | 54 | 40 | Udall +14 |
| Rasmussen | 02/17 - 02/18 | 500 LV | 50 | 42 | Udall +8 |
| SurveyUSA | 11/16 - 11/18 | 1737 RV | 54 | 40 | Udall +14 |
| Research 2000 | 11/05 - 11/07 | 600 LV | 54 | 37 | Udall +17 |
| Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Assoc (D) | 10/23 - 10/27 | 500 LV | 50 | 33 | Udall +17 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/05 - 01/07 | 514 RV | 55 | 37 | Udall +18 |
Sen. Pete Domenici announced in October 2007 that he would not seek re-election. Now, New Mexico's House delegation will undergo a complete turnover in the 111th Congress, as all three House members gave up their seats to run for Domenici's Senate seat.
GOP Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce duked it out for the Republican nomination, but Pearce narrowly won the June 3 primary, winning 51%-49%. Pearce faces Democratic Rep. Tom Udall in the general election.
Wilson would have been considered vulnerable had she decided to run for re-election, as she held off a challenge in 2006 by only 861 votes. Wilson's district voted for both John Kerry and Al Gore in the last two presidential elections. Pearce's district leans Republican, and the three-term congressman would have likely been heavily favored to win re-election.
Udall, who comes from a political family including two cousins currently in Congress (Mark Udall in Colorado and Gordon Smith in Oregon), escaped a competitive and possibly expensive primary. Although Udall began the race as the favorite to win, both parties are likely to spend a lot of money here, as the general election race should be extremely competitive. Bush won the state by 6,000 votes in 2004 after losing it to Gore in 2000 by just 365 votes.
Senate
2002: Domenici 65, Tristani 35
1996: Domenici 65, Trujillo 30
President
2004: Bush 50, Kerry 49
2000: Gore 48, Bush 48
1996: Clinton 49, Dole 42
Population (2007 est.): 1,969,915
Registered Voters: Dem 526,981 | Rep 350,400 | Other 185,417
Occupation: Blue Collar 22.2% | White Collar 59.9% | Gray Collar 17.9%
Race: White 44.7% | Hispanic 42.1% | Asian 1.0% | Black 1.7%
- Battleground New Mexico - Reid Wilson, RealClearPolitics