New Mexico Senate

Open Seat (R)

Candidates

Tom Udall

Tom Udall (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Steve Pearce

Steve Pearce (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

New Mexico Snapshot

RCP Senate Ranking: Likely Dem

Senate Race:
Presidential Race:

Competitive House Races: NM-1
| NM-2

Key 2006 State Races: Governor | NM-1

2004 President: Kerry (D) vs. Bush (R)

Polling Data

PollDateSampleUdall (D)Pearce (R)Spread
Final Results----61.238.8Udall +22.4
RCP Average09/29 - 10/31--54.339.7Udall +14.6
SurveyUSA10/29 - 10/31664 LV5642Udall +14
Rasmussen10/28 - 10/28500 lv5641Udall +15
Albuquerque Journal09/29 - 10/02659 LV5136Udall +15

See All New Mexico Senate Polling Data

Race Summary

Sen. Pete Domenici announced in October 2007 that he would not seek re-election. Now, New Mexico's House delegation will undergo a complete turnover in the 111th Congress, as all three House members gave up their seats to run for Domenici's Senate seat.  

GOP Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce duked it out for the Republican nomination, but Pearce narrowly won the June 3 primary, winning 51%-49%. Pearce faces Democratic Rep. Tom Udall in the general election.

Wilson would have been considered vulnerable had she decided to run for re-election, as she held off a challenge in 2006 by only 861 votes. Wilson's district voted for both John Kerry and Al Gore in the last two presidential elections. Pearce's district leans Republican, and the three-term congressman would have likely been heavily favored to win re-election. 

Udall, who comes from a political family including two cousins currently in Congress (Mark Udall in Colorado and Gordon Smith in Oregon), escaped a competitive and possibly expensive primary. Although Udall began the race as the favorite to win, both parties are likely to spend a lot of money here, as the general election race should be extremely competitive. Bush won the state by 6,000 votes in 2004 after losing it to Gore in 2000 by just 365 votes.

Previous Election Results

Senate
2006: Bingaman (D) 71, McCulloch (R) 29
2002: Domenici (R) 65, Tristani (D) 35
2000: Bingaman (D) 62, Redmond (R) 38
1996: Domenici (R) 65, Trujillo (D) 30

President
2004: Bush (R) 50, Kerry (D) 49
2000: Gore (R) 48, Bush (R) 48
1996: Clinton (D) 49, Dole (R) 42

Demographics

Population (2007 est.): 1,969,915
Registered Voters: Dem 526,981 | Rep 350,400 | Other 185,417  
Occupation: Blue Collar 22.2% | White Collar 59.9% | Gray Collar 17.9%
Race: White 44.7% | Hispanic 42.1% | Asian 1.0% | Black 1.7%

Recent Commentary & News Stories

- Battleground New Mexico - Reid Wilson, RealClearPolitics

See All New Mexico Senate Commentary & News Stories

Polling Data

PollDateSampleUdall (D)Pearce (R)Spread
Final Results----61.238.8Udall +22.4
RCP Average09/29 - 10/31--54.339.7Udall +14.6
SurveyUSA10/29 - 10/31664 LV5642Udall +14
PPP (D)10/28 - 10/301537 LV5839Udall +19
Rasmussen10/28 - 10/28500 lv5641Udall +15
Rasmussen10/13 - 10/13700 LV5737Udall +20
SurveyUSA10/12 - 10/13568 LV5840Udall +18
Albuquerque Journal09/29 - 10/02659 LV5136Udall +15
Rasmussen10/01 - 10/01700 LV5541Udall +14
SurveyUSA09/29 - 09/30698 LV5839Udall +19
PPP (D)09/17 - 09/191037 LV5737Udall +20
SurveyUSA09/14 - 09/16671 LV5641Udall +15
Rasmussen09/08 - 09/08700 LV5144Udall +7
Rasmussen08/20 - 08/20700 LV5244Udall +8
Rasmussen07/24 - 07/24700 LV6135Udall +26
Rasmussen06/19 - 06/19500 LV5830Udall +28
SurveyUSA05/30 - 06/011869 RV6036Udall +24
Rasmussen05/14 - 05/14500 LV5337Udall +16
SurveyUSA05/12 - 05/141827 RV6036Udall +24
Rasmussen04/08 - 04/08500 LV5440Udall +14
Rasmussen02/17 - 02/18500 LV5042Udall +8
SurveyUSA11/16 - 11/181737 RV5440Udall +14
Research 200011/05 - 11/07600 LV5437Udall +17
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Assoc (D)10/23 - 10/27500 LV5033Udall +17
SurveyUSA10/05 - 01/07514 RV5537Udall +18

All Commentary & News Stories

- Battleground New Mexico - Reid Wilson, RealClearPolitics