Race Summary

If the Democrats are to pick up that coveted 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority, this is a seat they'll likely need to steal. Elizabeth Dole had a tough 2006, when Republicans lost control of the Senate under her NRSC chairmanship watch, but knocking her out of office will be no easy feat.

This seat has been in Republican hands for the last 35 years. A strong challenge to Dole could have come from the term-limited Gov. Mike Easley, one of the seven Democratic congressmen, Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue or Treas. Richard Moore. But Easley and the House delegation decided against it, and Perdue and Moore had their eyes set on the governor's mansion.

Despite this, Democrats should still mount a competitive campaign with state Sen. Kay Hagan, who easily won the May 6 primary. Hagan, who has shown the ability to fundraise, is the niece of the late Lawton Chiles, a three-term U.S. Senator and two-term Governor of Florida.

Dole, running for re-election for the first time, has focused on North Carolina issues during her first term, including her quest for the Lumbee Indians to receive the tribal benefits they have so far been denied. Her attention turned away from North Carolina during the last election cycle, however, as she ran the GOP Senate campaign arm.

The state has voted Republican in the last seven presidential elections, and Dole's recognizable name alone should win her a chunk of votes. Democrats, however, hold a majority of the state's House delegation, and Hagan could benefit from the national tide that looks to be in the Democrats' favor.

Previous Elections

Senate
2002: Dole 54, Bowles 45
1996: Helms 53, Gantt 46

President
2004: Bush 56, Kerry 44
2000: Bush 56, Gore 43
1996: Dole 49, Clinton 44

Demographics