![]() | ||
![]() | 5 things to watch at the DNC tonight | |
![]() | Dems challenge McCain’s Western roots | |
![]() | GOP Veep Sheet: Has he or hasn't he? | |
![]() | McCain ad to laud Obama's DNC speech | |
![]() | Obama: The journey of a confident man | |
Email This Page to a Friend | Print This Page
| Poll | Date | Sample | Dole (R) | Hagan (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 08/09 - 08/23 | -- | 42.3 | 41.0 | Dole +1.3 |
| PPP (D) | 08/20 - 08/23 | 904 LV | 39 | 42 | Hagan +3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 08/19 - 08/19 | 614 LV | 40 | 40 | Tie |
| Civitas/TelOpinion (R) | 08/14 - 08/17 | 600 RV | 44 | 41 | Dole +3 |
| SurveyUSA | 08/09 - 08/11 | 655 LV | 46 | 41 | Dole +5 |
If the Democrats are to pick up that coveted 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority, this is a seat they'll likely need to steal. Elizabeth Dole had a tough 2006, when Republicans lost control of the Senate under her NRSC chairmanship watch, but knocking her out of office will be no easy feat.
This seat has been in Republican hands for the last 35 years. A strong challenge to Dole could have come from the term-limited Gov. Mike Easley, one of the seven Democratic congressmen, Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue or Treas. Richard Moore. But Easley and the House delegation decided against it, and Perdue and Moore had their eyes set on the governor's mansion.
Despite this, Democrats should still mount a competitive campaign with state Sen. Kay Hagan, who easily won the May 6 primary. Hagan, who has shown the ability to fundraise, is the niece of the late Lawton Chiles, a three-term U.S. Senator and two-term Governor of Florida.
Dole, running for re-election for the first time, has focused on North Carolina issues during her first term, including her quest for the Lumbee Indians to receive the tribal benefits they have so far been denied. Her attention turned away from North Carolina during the last election cycle, however, as she ran the GOP Senate campaign arm.
The state has voted Republican in the last seven presidential elections, and Dole's recognizable name alone should win her a chunk of votes. Democrats, however, hold a majority of the state's House delegation, and Hagan could benefit from the national tide that looks to be in the Democrats' favor.
Senate
2002: Dole 54, Bowles 45
1996: Helms 53, Gantt 46
President
2004: Bush 56, Kerry 44
2000: Bush 56, Gore 43
1996: Dole 49, Clinton 44
| Poll | Date | Sample | Dole (R) | Hagan (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 08/09 - 08/23 | -- | 42.3 | 41.0 | Dole +1.3 |
| PPP (D) | 08/20 - 08/23 | 904 LV | 39 | 42 | Hagan +3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 08/19 - 08/19 | 614 LV | 40 | 40 | Tie |
| Civitas/TelOpinion (R) | 08/14 - 08/17 | 600 RV | 44 | 41 | Dole +3 |
| SurveyUSA | 08/09 - 08/11 | 655 LV | 46 | 41 | Dole +5 |
| Research 2000 | 07/28 - 07/30 | 600 LV | 50 | 42 | Dole +8 |
| PPP (D) | 07/23 - 07/27 | 823 LV | 49 | 40 | Dole +9 |
| Civitas/TelOpinion (R) | 07/14 - 07/16 | 600 LV | 47 | 38 | Dole +9 |
| Rasmussen | 07/15 - 07/15 | 500 LV | 54 | 43 | Dole +11 |
| SurveyUSA | 07/12 - 07/14 | 676 LV | 54 | 42 | Dole +12 |
| PPP (D) | 06/26 - 06/29 | 1048 LV | 51 | 37 | Dole +14 |
| Civitas/TelOpinion (R) | 06/11 - 06/13 | 600 RV | 48 | 38 | Dole +10 |
| Rasmussen | 06/10 - 06/10 | 500 LV | 53 | 39 | Dole +14 |
| PPP (D) | 05/28 - 05/29 | 543 LV | 47 | 39 | Dole +8 |
| SurveyUSA | 05/17 - 05/19 | 713 LV | 50 | 46 | Dole +4 |
| Civitas/TelOpinion (R) | 05/14 - 05/17 | 800 RV | 45 | 43 | Dole +2 |
| PPP (D) | 05/08 - 05/09 | 616 LV | 48 | 43 | Dole +5 |
| Rasmussen | 05/08 - 05/08 | 500 LV | 47 | 48 | Hagan +1 |
| Research 2000 | 04/28 - 04/30 | 600 LV | 48 | 41 | Dole +7 |
| Rasmussen | 04/10 - 04/10 | 500 LV | 52 | 39 | Dole +13 |
| Rasmussen | 12/19 - 12/19 | 500 LV | 55 | 35 | Dole +20 |
| Research 2000 | 12/16 - 12/18 | 600 LV | 46 | 39 | Dole +7 |