Kentucky Senate

Candidates

Mitch McConnell*

Mitch McConnell* (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Bruce Lunsford

Bruce Lunsford (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMcConnell (R)Lunsford (D)Spread
RCP Average09/15 - 09/30--48.842.3McConnell +6.5
Rasmussen09/30 - 09/30500 LV5142McConnell +9
Mason-Dixon09/22 - 09/25717 LV4544McConnell +1
SurveyUSA09/21 - 09/22672 LV4946McConnell +3
Research 200009/15 - 09/17600 LV5037McConnell +13

See All Kentucky Senate Polling Data

Race Summary

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is running for his fifth term in what is usually a GOP-friendly state (though Bill Clinton won twice here). All signs should point to him coasting to re-election, but McConnell, though favored to retain his seat, doesn't appear to be counting on returning to Congress just yet.

By the beginning of 2008, McConnell had already amassed a large amount of fundraising dollars and was running TV ads in Kentucky touting his Senate accomplishments. Most entrenched incumbents don't need to do this at such an early date.

In the general, McConnell is being challenged by Bruce Lunsford, a wealthy businessman who twice came up short in the Democratic primary for governor. He defeated a fellow entrepreneur in the Democratic primary, and should be able to at least somewhat self-finance his campaign against McConnell.

The state just voted out its scandal-plagued Repbulican governor by an 18-point margin in favor of a Democrat. This won't necessarily affect McConnell, but his ties to the unpopular Bush administration could prove fateful. Still, McConnell enjoys a substantial fundraising lead, as well as the advantages of incumbency, that could be too much for a twice-failed statewide candidate to overcome.

Previous Election Results

Senate
2004: Bunning (R) 51, Mongiardo (D) 49
2002: McConnell (R) 65, Weinberg (D) 35
1998: Bunning (R) 50, Baesler (D) 49
1996: McConnell (R) 55, Beshear (D) 43

President
2004: Bush 60, Kerry 40
2000: Bush 57, Gore 41
1996: Clinton 46, Dole 45

Demographics

Population (2007 est.): 4,241,474
Registered Voters: Dem 57.0% | Rep 36.4% | Other 6.5%
Occupation: Blue Collar 29.7% | White Collar 56.0% | Gray Collar 14.3%
Race: White 89.3% | Black 7.3% | Hispanic 1.5% | Two+ races 0.9%

Recent Commentary & News Stories

- McConnell Leads Big - The Scorecard

See All Kentucky Senate Commentary & News Stories

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMcConnell (R)Lunsford (D)Spread
RCP Average09/15 - 09/30--48.842.3McConnell +6.5
Rasmussen09/30 - 09/30500 LV5142McConnell +9
Mason-Dixon09/22 - 09/25717 LV4544McConnell +1
SurveyUSA09/21 - 09/22672 LV4946McConnell +3
Research 200009/15 - 09/17600 LV5037McConnell +13
VC Research (R)*09/07 - 09/09900 LV5235McConnell +17
SurveyUSA08/09 - 08/11636 LV5240McConnell +12
Research 200007/28 - 07/30600 LV4938McConnell +11
Rasmussen07/29 - 07/29500 LV5242McConnell +10
Rasmussen06/25 - 06/25500 LV4841McConnell +7
VC Research (R)*06/15 - 06/17601 LV5039McConnell +11
SurveyUSA06/13 - 06/16626 LV5046McConnell +4
Rasmussen05/22 - 05/22500 LV4449Lunsford +5
VC Research (R)*05/21 - 05/22600 LV5039McConnell +11
Research 200005/07 - 05/09600 LV4836McConnell +12
VC Research (R)*01/06 - 01/09600 LV5237McConnell +15

All Commentary & News Stories

- McConnell Leads Big - The Scorecard