Race Summary

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is running for his fifth term in what is usually a GOP-friendly state (though Bill Clinton won twice here). All signs should point to him coasting to re-election, but McConnell, though favored to retain his seat, doesn't appear to be counting on returning to Congress just yet.

By the beginning of 2008, McConnell had already amassed a large amount of fundraising dollars and was running TV ads in Kentucky touting his Senate accomplishments. Most entrenched incumbents don't need to do this at such an early date.

In the general, McConnell is being challenged by Bruce Lunsford, a wealthy businessman who twice came up short in the Democratic primary for governor. He defeated a fellow entrepreneur in the Democratic primary, and should be able to at least somewhat self-finance his campaign against McConnell.

The state just voted out its scandal-plagued Repbulican governor by an 18-point margin in favor of a Democrat. This won't necessarily affect McConnell, but his ties to the unpopular Bush administration could prove fateful. Still, McConnell enjoys a substantial fundraising lead, as well as the advantages of incumbency, that could be too much for a twice-failed statewide candidate to overcome.

Previous Election Results

Senate
2004: Bunning (R) 51, Mongiardo (D) 49
2002: McConnell (R) 65, Weinberg (D) 35
1998: Bunning (R) 50, Baesler (D) 49
1996: McConnell (R) 55, Beshear (D) 43

President
2004: Bush 60, Kerry 40
2000: Bush 57, Gore 41
1996: Clinton 46, Dole 45

Demographics