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RCP Senate Ranking: Leans Dem
Senate Race:
Competitive House Races: AK-AL
Key 2006 State Races: Governor
2004 Senate: Knowles (D) vs. Murkowski (R)
| Poll | Date | Sample | Begich (D) | Stevens (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 46.7 | 48.2 | Stevens +1.5 |
| RCP Average | 10/17 - 10/30 | -- | 52.0 | 41.7 | Begich +10.3 |
| Research 2000 | 10/28 - 10/30 | 600 LV | 58 | 36 | Begich +22 |
| Rasmussen | 10/28 - 10/28 | 500 LV | 52 | 44 | Begich +8 |
| Ivan Moore Res. | 10/17 - 10/19 | 500 LV | 46 | 45 | Begich +1 |
Sen. Ted Stevens has never won re-election with less than 66% of the vote. If he is fortunate enough to win this year, it will likely be with far less than that. The six-term senator, who had been under federal investigation for at least a year, was indicted July 29 on seven felony counts of making false statements on his Senate financial disclosure forms. On Oct. 27, he was convicted on all 7 counts, all but crushing his re-election hopes.
After winning the seven-candidate August 26 primary with 64% of the vote, Stevens faces Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, a candidate Democrats feel is a credible and competent challenger to Stevens's throne. Stevens has been a senator almost as long as Alaska's been a state, and voters love the pork he's brought home -- just see how many structures in the state have his name on them.
National Republicans might have felt better about this race had Stevens declined to run for re-election. Still, Alaska has voted Republican for president in 11 of the 12 years its had a vote, and Democratic statewide candidates regularly begin with an uphill challenge. Stevens' conviction, however, makes this seat all but gone.
Senate
2004: L. Murkowski (R) 49, Knowles (D) 46
2002: Stevens (R) 78, Vondersaar (D) 11
1998: F. Murkowski (R) 74, Sonneman (D) 20
1996: Stevens (R) 77, Whittaker (G) 13
President
2004: Bush (R) 61, Kerry (D) 36
2000: Bush (R) 59, Gore (D) 28
1996: Dole (R) 51, Clinton (D) 33
Population (2007 est.): 683,478
Registered Voters: Dem 68,170 | Rep 118,267 | Other 292,899
Occupation: Blue Collar 22.4% | White Collar 60.5% | Gray Collar 17.1%
Race: White 67.6% | Native Am. 15.4% | Hispanic 4.1% | Asian 3.9%
- Dem. Inouye: Stevens Will Return to Senate - Politico
- Stevens: 'I've Not Been Convicted Yet' - Fox News
- Stevens Receives Hero's Welcome in Alaska - New York Times
- Conviction May End Stevens' Career - Kyle Trygstad, RCP
- Ted Stevens Found Guilty In Corruption Case - Associated Press
| Poll | Date | Sample | Begich (D) | Stevens (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 46.7 | 48.2 | Stevens +1.5 |
| RCP Average | 10/17 - 10/30 | -- | 52.0 | 41.7 | Begich +10.3 |
| Research 2000 | 10/28 - 10/30 | 600 LV | 58 | 36 | Begich +22 |
| Rasmussen | 10/28 - 10/28 | 500 LV | 52 | 44 | Begich +8 |
| Ivan Moore Res. | 10/17 - 10/19 | 500 LV | 46 | 45 | Begich +1 |
| Research 2000 | 10/14 - 10/16 | 600 LV | 48 | 46 | Begich +2 |
| Rasmussen | 10/06 - 10/06 | 500 LV | 48 | 49 | Stevens +1 |
| Ivan Moore Res. | 10/03 - 10/06 | 500 LV | 49 | 45 | Begich +4 |
| Ivan Moore Res. | 09/20 - 09/22 | 500 LV | 48 | 46 | Begich +2 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | 09/17 - 09/21 | 601 LV | 47 | 43 | Begich +4 |
| Research 2000 | 09/15 - 09/17 | 600 LV | 50 | 44 | Begich +6 |
| Rasmussen | 09/09 - 09/09 | 500 LV | 48 | 46 | Begich +2 |
| Ivan Moore Res. | 08/30 - 09/02 | 500 LV | 49 | 46 | Begich +3 |
| Rasmussen | 07/30 - 07/30 | 500 LV | 50 | 37 | Begich +13 |
| Rasmussen | 07/17 - 07/17 | 500 LV | 52 | 44 | Begich +8 |
| Research 2000 | 07/14 - 07/16 | 600 LV | 47 | 45 | Begich +2 |
| Rasmussen | 06/16 - 06/16 | 500 LV | 44 | 46 | Stevens +2 |
| Rasmussen | 05/14 - 05/14 | 500 LV | 47 | 45 | Begich +2 |
| Research 2000 | 05/12 - 05/14 | 600 LV | 48 | 43 | Begich +5 |
| Rasmussen | 04/07 - 04/07 | 500 LV | 45 | 46 | Stevens +1 |
| Research 2000 | 12/03 - 12/06 | 600 LV | 47 | 41 | Begich +6 |
- Dem. Inouye: Stevens Will Return to Senate - Politico
- Stevens: 'I've Not Been Convicted Yet' - Fox News
- Stevens Receives Hero's Welcome in Alaska - New York Times
- Conviction May End Stevens' Career - Kyle Trygstad, RCP
- Ted Stevens Found Guilty In Corruption Case - Associated Press
- Conviction Wouldn't Bar Stevens from Senate - CNN
- Stevens's Attorney Calls Case 'Twisted' - The Hill
- Sen. Stevens Ends Testimony; Defense Rests - The Hill
- Senate Might Have Final Say if Stevens Convicted - AP
- Judge Denies Stevens's Bid to Move Trial to Alaska - The Hill
- Prosecution Lays Out Details of Case Against Stevens - The Hill
- AK GOP Has Chance to Retire Stevens, But He Won't Go Quietly - American Spectator
- An Earthquake in Alaska Politics - Michael Barone, US News & World Report
- Democrats Aim For Last Frontier - Reid Wilson, RealClearPolitics