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Kentucky Snapshot
RCP House Ranking: Leans DemPresidential Race: Obama (D) vs. McCain (R)
Senate Race: Lunsford (D) vs. McConnell (R)*
Competitive House Races: KY-3
Key 2006 State Races: KY-3 | KY-4
2004 Senate: Mongiardo (D) vs. Bunning (R)
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Northup (R) | Yarmuth (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 10/21 - 10/22 | 612 LV | 41 | 57 | Yarmuth +16 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/14 - 10/15 | 613 LV | 41 | 57 | Yarmuth +16 |
| SurveyUSA | 9/5 - 9/7 | 646 LV | 45 | 53 | Yarmuth +8 |
| SurveyUSA | 7/18 - 7/20 | 621 LV | 43 | 53 | Yarmuth +10 |
| SurveyUSA | 6/6 - 6/8 | 646 LV | 40 | 57 | Yarmuth +17 |
Race Summary
It may have been a bigger surprise when John Yarmuth, then a newspaper publisher and columnist, won the Democratic primary in 2006 rather than his general election victory over congresswoman Anne Northup (R). The five-term Republican, who missed six weeks of campaigning that year following the death of her son, was an annual target in this Democratic-leaning district but returns this year to win back her seat.
Previous Election Results
House
2006: Yarmuth (D) 51, Northup (R) 48
2004: Northup (R) 60, Miller (D) 38
2002: Northup (R) 52, Conway 48
President
2004: Kerry (D) 51, Bush (R) 49
2000: Gore (D) 50, Bush (R) 48
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