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RCP House Ranking: Toss Up
Presidential Race:
Obama (D) vs. McCain (R)
House Races: FL-8 | FL-16 | FL-21 | FL-24 | FL-25
Key 2006 State Races: Gov | FL-13 | FL-16 | FL-22
2004 President: Kerry (D) vs. Bush (R)
2004 Senate: Castor (D) vs. Martinez (R)
| Poll | Date | Sample | M. Diaz-Balart (R) | Garcia (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily Kos/R2000 | 10/20 - 10/22 | LV | 46 | 43 | M. Diaz-Balart +3 |
| Telemundo 51 | 09/27 - 10/01 | 300 RV | 43 | 41 | M. Diaz-Balart +2 |
| Daily Kos/R2000 | 09/23 - 09/25 | LV | 45 | 41 | M. Diaz-Balart +4 |
Cuban voters have historically favored Republicans, but with the rise of a younger generation, that could be changing. If it is, look for evidence in Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart's fast-growing district in suburban and exurban Miami. He faces former county Democratic Party chair Joe Garcia, who has raised an impressive amount of money. Barack Obama will likely outperform previous Democratic candidates, but 2008 might still be too early for the party to take the seat.
House
2006: M. Diaz-Balart (R) 58, Calderin (D) 42
2004: M. Diaz-Balart (R), unopposed
2002: M. Diaz-Balart (R) 65, Betancourt (D) 35
President
2004: Bush (R) 56, Kerry (D) 44
2000: Bush (R) 55, Gore (D) 45
- FL 25: M. Diaz-Balart +3 - Politics Nation
- Diaz-Balart, Garcia Clash -- Cordially - Miami Herald
- Challenges to Diaz-Balarts Draw National Attention - Miami Herald
- Diaz-Balart Ads Attack Joe Garcia - Associated Press