Rep. Marilyn Musgrave's winning percentage has gone down every election since her initial victory in 2002. Any incumbent who wins re-election with 46% of the vote, as Musgrave did in 2006, is in trouble. Her opponent, former congressional aide Betsy Markey, has backers in the environmental community who have already spent heavily on the race. Environmental groups are trying to make Musgrave this year's version of Richard Pombo (R), the former Resources committee chair knocked from his California seat in 2006, and they may just succeed.
House
2006: Musgrave (R) 46, Paccione (D) 43
2004: Musgrave (R) 51, Matsunaka (D) 45
2002: Musgrave (R) 55, Matsunaka (D) 42
President
2004: Bush (R) 58, Kerry (D) 41
2000: Bush (R) 57, Gore (D) 36
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