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RCP House Ranking: Likely Dem
Presidential Race:
Obama (D) vs. McCain (R)
Governor: Nixon (D) vs. Hulshof (R)
House Races: MO-6 | MO-9
Key 2006 State Races: Senate
2004 President: Kerry (D) vs. Bush (R)
| Poll | Date | Sample | Nixon (D) | Hulshof (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 58.4 | 39.5 | Nixon +18.9 |
| RCP Average | 10/14 - 11/2 | -- | 55.3 | 39.3 | Nixon +16.0 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/30 - 11/2 | 674 LV | 54 | 39 | Nixon +15 |
| Research 2000 | 10/20 - 10/23 | 800 LV | 55 | 41 | Nixon +14 |
| Rasmussen | 10/14 - 10/14 | 700 LV | 57 | 38 | Nixon +19 |
Facing what would have been a competitive general election challenge from Attorney General Jay Nixon, Gov. Matt Blunt announced in January he would not seek re-election, citing the desire to spend more time with his family.
Blunt's exit sparked a close primary campaign between 9th District Rep. Kenny Hulshof and Treasurer Sarah Steelman, and Hulshof emerged victorious with a 4-point win in the August 5 primary. Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder initially entered the race, but dropped out two weeks later, deciding instead to run for re-election.
Nixon has been gearing up for this race far longer than Hulshof and did not face a competitive primary. This gives Nixon an edge, though this promises to be a close contest.
Notable fact: The two most recent governor's race losers both went on to win election to the Senate. In 2006, the loser of the 2004 election for governor, Claire McCaskill, knocked off the incumbent Senator and loser of the 2000 election, Jim Talent.
Governor
2004: Blunt 51, McCaskill 48
2000: Holden 49, Talent 48
President
2004: Bush 53, Kerry 46
2000: Bush 50, Gore 47
1996: Clinton 48, Dole 41
| Poll | Date | Sample | Nixon (D) | Hulshof (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 58.4 | 39.5 | Nixon +18.9 |
| RCP Average | 10/14 - 11/2 | -- | 55.3 | 39.3 | Nixon +16.0 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/30 - 11/2 | 674 LV | 54 | 39 | Nixon +15 |
| PPP (D) | 10/31 - 11/2 | 1343 LV | 58 | 38 | Nixon +20 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/25 - 10/26 | 672 LV | 55 | 38 | Nixon +17 |
| Research 2000 | 10/20 - 10/23 | 800 LV | 55 | 41 | Nixon +14 |
| Rasmussen | 10/14 - 10/14 | 700 LV | 57 | 38 | Nixon +19 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/11 - 10/12 | 546 LV | 56 | 34 | Nixon +22 |
| PPP (D) | 10/11 - 10/12 | 1009 LV | 52 | 39 | Nixon +13 |
| SurveyUSA | 9/23 - 9/24 | 705 LV | 54 | 37 | Nixon +17 |
| Research 2000 | 9/22 - 9/24 | 800 LV | 51 | 42 | Nixon +9 |
| Research 2000 | 9/15 - 9/18 | 800 LV | 50 | 43 | Nixon +7 |
| Rasmussen | 9/11 - 9/11 | 700 LV | 54 | 39 | Nixon +15 |
| PPP (D) | 8/13 - 8/17 | 750 LV | 48 | 42 | Nixon +6 |
| Rasmussen | 8/7 - 8/7 | 700 LV | 53 | 42 | Nixon +11 |
| Research 2000 | 7/7 - 7/10 | 800 LV | 52 | 35 | Nixon +17 |
| Rasmussen | 7/7 - 7/7 | 500 LV | 49 | 38 | Nixon +11 |
| PPP (D) | 7/2 - 7/5 | 723 LV | 47 | 37 | Nixon +10 |
| Rasmussen | 6/3 - 6/3 | 500 LV | 54 | 34 | Nixon +20 |
| Rasmussen | 5/6 - 5/6 | 500 LV | 54 | 34 | Nixon +20 |
| Rasmussen | 3/24 - 3/24 | 500 LV | 48 | 37 | Nixon +11 |
| Rasmussen | 2/11 - 2/11 | 500 LV | 48 | 30 | Nixon +18 |