(October 19) Today’s Zogby/WSJ online poll gives Corker a sizable 7-point lead. The current InTrade market (Thursday morning) gives a slight edge to Corker with his 51.1 bid compared to Ford’s 45.3 bid. We continue to feel Corker maintains the edge in this state.

(October 12) Tennessee has turned in to real dog fight. Rep. Harold Ford has probably run one of the best campaigns this cycle, and it shows, as he is well positioned to pull off a huge upset in a state the Republicans felt pretty confident about holding. Of the six polls in our current RCP Average, which gives Ford a scant 0.8% lead, all but one has the race within two points. In our earlier analysis we felt Corker still held the edge here because of the conservative leanings of the state, but the longer Ford stays clearly in the mix and doesn’t let Corker pull out to a small lead the more likely the upset becomes.

(October 1) Mason-Dixon’s results at first blush look bad for Republicans as this is a race they had hoped would not be this close. But when looking at Ford 43% - Corker 42%, the question that comes to mind is how is Ford going to get that 43% over 50%? When Corker and the Republicans get their ads cranked up in this race they should have a considerably easier time getting his number to 50% than Ford, given the conservative leanings of Tennessee. Harold Ford has run a very strong campaign to date and is an extremely impressive politician, but his family baggage and the fact his base lies in the western part of the state in Memphis, as opposed to Corker's base in the east is going to work against him in the home stretch. Ford may lead by one point in this poll, but Corker holds the advantage.

Occupation: Blue Collar 30.2% | White Collar 55.6% | Gray Collar 14.2%
Race: White 79.2% | Black 16.3% | Hispanic 2.2% | Asian 1.0%