(November 5) Yesterday we moved Chafee to Leans Democrat from Likely Democrat after accumulating reports from Rhode Island that the Chafee camp was increasingly optimistic about their chances of pulling this race out, but the Mason-Dixon poll this morning showing Chafee up a point is a shocker. If this is at all confirmed by any other polling this race has to be considered a toss up.
(October 8) Chafee looks to be in real trouble. He needs to get his RCP Average up to 45%, and soon. We’re skeptical in his ability to do that given he hasn’t polled above 45% in a single poll over the last five months. The general negativity toward President Bush in New England looks to be too much for Chafee to over come this election. The best news he has going for him is Mason-Dixon remains one of the best firms at state polling and they have this race only a one point contest.
(September 13) Chafee's win yesterday is good news for GOP chances of holding the Senate, as the more conservative Laffey would have had no chance of winning the general in November. In our pre-primary analysis we suggested that a "solid win" by Chafee would be good news for GOP prospects of holding this seat. And while 54% - 46% is certainly not an overwhelming result in a primary for an incumbent Senator, given the trends we have seen of incumbents going down in neighboring Connecticut and then earlier this year in Pennsylvania state races, we would characterize last night's margin as a "solid" result for Chafee. Fellow Northeastern, moderate Arlen Specter scraped by in his primary two years ago, 51% - 49%. As the head-on-head polling with state Attorney General Whitehouse indicates (Chafee leads by 0.3% in the latest RCP Average), this race now looks to be a clear toss-up with roughly 50 days remaining. Chafee will get a boost both from his win and the manner in which he won. The fact that hard-core conservatives may be mad with him is not exactly a negative heading into a general election this year in Rhode Island. However, this is clearly a Democratic state in a part of the country where anti-Bush sentiment runs extremely high. Chafee will have to run the better campaign to win. (September 6) One of our reasons for listing this as Leans Democrat is the very real possibility that Chafee doesn’t even make it to the general election contest against Whitehouse. Two new polls taken Monday-Wednesday last week are all over the map, with a Rhode Island College survey giving Laffey a 17 point lead (51% - 34%) and POS survey indicating Chafee ahead by 14 (53% - 39%). Let’s just say that it looks like it is going to be close, with a Laffey win, guaranteeing a Democratic pickup, and even if Chafee holds on we suspect he will be hobbled going into the general. A solid Chafee win next Tuesday, would be good news for GOP prospects of holding this seat. (The POS poll was done for the NRSC, which is not good news for Chafee.)
(August 20) Senator Chafee is still engaged in a primary battle against Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey that will be held September 12. Chafee is favored to win the primary, though it is not a foregone conclusion. Laffey has no chance of winning the general election against former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse.
This race doesn’t garner as much attention as Pennsylvania, Ohio and Montana, but with Santorum closing hard early in PA (though still trailing), Chafee might suddenly be the most vulnerable Senate incumbent. Even though he is by far the most liberal member of the GOP Senate caucus, the intensity of the anti-Bush sentiment in New England -- that Lamont’s win in the Connecticut primary is testament to -- will make his reelection a very hard sell to Rhode Island’s overwhelming Democratic electorate. | 
Democratic Field
