(September 25) The post-Labor Day polls seem to be bringing little good news for Senator Santorum. Like the Gallup poll giving Casey an 18-point lead in late August we don’t put a lot of stock in the IssuesPA/Pew poll showing Casey ahead 23 points, but there is no question that after a tightening to the 5-8 point range in mid-August, the recent polls indicate Casey has restored his double-digit lead. Put simply, this is bad news for Republican chances to hold this seat. Santorum at a minimum needed to keep this race in the 5-8 point range. A 9 – 12 point range (or higher) in the RCP Average in late September, is not good news for an incumbent Senator. The polls are likely to close again, but Casey at this stage holds the definite advantage. (September 6) The Gallup poll indicating an 18 point lead for Casey should be taken with a grain salt. As good as Gallup is with national survey’s their state polling in 2004 was considerably less than stellar, as Gallup’s final polls in the critical toss up states of PA, FL and OH were significantly off the mark. They were calling for a Bush win in Pennsylvania by four, he lost by 2 ½ points (Kerry 50.9% - Bush 48.4%) and Kerry wins in Florida in Ohio by 3 and 4, which he lost by five and two. (FL: Bush 52.1% - Kerry 47.1%, OH: Bush 50.8% - Kerry 48.7%) However, even if Gallup is off by 10 points, that still puts Casey ahead by 8, which isn’t good news for Santorum, reinforcing our point from the beginning that Santorum is simply down by too much. A move back into the low double digits in the next batch of polls would be very bad news for the incumbent’s reelection prospects. (August 21) Strategic Vision is the third poll to peg this race at a 6 point Casey lead, their previous four polls had Casey leads of 10, 9, 10 and 14 points. So it is not just a single poll indicating that Santorum has pulled within 6 points, but three. The next question is whether this is a temporary blip for Santorum and the race will return to a Casey 10 point lead or has the embattled incumbent made gains that he can hold? (August 15 Analysis | August 7 Analysis | July 14 Analysis) | 
Democratic Field
