RealClearPolitics

Arizona Senate Race

Candidates

Jon Kyl (R)* Bio \| Campaign Site	Jim Pederson (D) Bio \| Campaign Site

RealClearPolitics Snapshot

RCP Average: Kyl + 8.6% | RCP Chart
RCP Ranking: Likely Republican
Key State Races: Gov | AZ-1 | AZ-5 | AZ-8

Final Election Results

Kyle (R) 53%, Pederson (D) 44% - Kyle +9%

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Kyl (R)*	Pederson (D)	Und.	Spread
RCP Average	10/25 - 11/02	-	49.3	40.7	6.3	Kyl +8.6
SurveyUSA	10/31 - 11/02	560 LV	53	40	3	Kyl +13.0
Mason-Dixon	10/31 - 11/02	625 LV	49	41	7	Kyl +8.0
Az. Daily Star	10/25 - 10/30	400 LV	46	41	9	Kyl +5.0
See All Arizona Senate Race Polling Data

Previous Election Results

Senate
2000: Kyl 79, Toel 8, Hansen 8
1994: Kyl 54, Coppersmith 40

President
2004: Bush 55, Kerry 45
2000: Bush 51, Gore 45
1996: Clinton 47, Dole 44

Demographics
Registered Voters: Dem 34.6% \| Rep 39.9% \| Other 25.5% Occupation: Blue Collar 21.9% \| White Collar 61.2% \| Gray Collar 16.9% Race: White 63.8% \| Hispanic 25.3% \| Native American 4.5% \| Black 2.9%

Recent Commentary & News Stories

See All Arizona Senate Race Commentary & News Stories

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Kyl (R)*	Pederson (D)	Und.	Spread
RCP Average	10/25 - 11/02	-	49.3	40.7	6.3	Kyl +8.6
SurveyUSA	10/31 - 11/02	560 LV	53	40	3	Kyl +13.0
Mason-Dixon	10/31 - 11/02	625 LV	49	41	7	Kyl +8.0
Az. Daily Star	10/25 - 10/30	400 LV	46	41	9	Kyl +5.0
Zogby Interactive*	10/23 - 10/27	LV	52	44	--	Kyl +8.0
Ariz. State	10/21 - 10/22	1,019 LV	47	41	9	Kyl +6.0
SurveyUSA	10/14 - 10/16	474 LV	48	43	6	Kyl +5.0
N. Ariz. Univ.	10/11 - 10/16	403 LV	49	33	16	Kyl +16.0
Zogby Interactive*	10/10 - 10/16	668 LV	50	44	--	Kyl +6.0
Rasmussen	10/15 - 10/15	500 LV	51	42	5	Kyl +9.0
Behavior Res. Ctr	09/26 - 10/03	625 LV	45	36	17	Kyl +9.0
Zogby Interactive*	09/19 - 09/25		51	44	5	Kyl +7.0
Ariz. State	09/21 - 09/24	882 LV	49	38	11	Kyl +11.0
Rasmussen	09/18 - 09/18	500 LV	50	39	6	Kyl +11.0
SurveyUSA	09/16 - 09/18	472 LV	48	43	7	Kyl +5.0
Harstad Strategic Res. (D)	09/04 - 09/06	802 LV	47	41	12	Kyl +6.0
Zogby Interactive*	08/29 - 09/05	n/a	50	44	6	Kyl +6.0
Ariz. State	08/24 - 08/29	846 RV	46	36	18	Kyl +10.0
Rasmussen	08/24 - 08/24	500 LV	52	35	10	Kyl +17.0
Zogby Interactive*	08/15 - 08/21	n/a	48	44	8	Kyl +4.0
Behavior Res. Ctr	07/08 - 07/21	627 RV	45	27	25	Kyl +18.0
Rasmussen	07/18 - 07/18	500 LV	53	34	8	Kyl +19.0
SurveyUSA	07/14 - 07/16	531 RV	52	40	9	Kyl +12.0
Ariz. State	06/15 - 06/18	384 RV	43	29	28	Kyl +14.0
Rasmussen	05/24 - 05/24	500 LV	52	35	9	Kyl +17.0
Behavior Res. Ctr	05/01 - 05/09	631 RV	40	33	27	Kyl +7.0
SurveyUSA	05/05 - 05/07	570 RV	52	37	10	Kyl +15.0
Rasmussen	04/25 - 04/25	500 LV	51	35	9	Kyl +16.0
Ariz. State	04/20 - 04/23	380 RV	42	31	27	Kyl +11.0
Rasmussen	03/30 - 03/30	500 LV	56	33	5	Kyl +23.0
SurveyUSA	02/24 - 02/26	590 RV	57	33	10	Kyl +24.0
Behavior Res. Ctr	01/05 - 01/13	549 RV	55	26	19	Kyl +29.0
Rasmussen	12/15 - 12/15	500 LV	50	30	14	Kyl +20.0
Behavior Res. Ctr	10/19 - 10/28	539 RV	54	30	16	Kyl +24.0
Ariz. State	10/20 - 10/23	385 RV	50	28	22	Kyl +22.0

All Commentary & News Stories

- AZ: Campaigns Draw Celebrity Participants - Phoenix Business Journal
- In the Senate, Counting to Six - Kirk Victor, National Journal
- AZ: Dems Give Pederson Late $1M Boost - Associated Press
- Bush Shores Up His Base as Democrats Spot Opening - New York Times
- AZ: Edwards Stumps for Dems, Calls for Moral Leadership - Arizona Daily Star
- AZ: Republicans Zero in on Pederson Tax Breaks - Phoenix Business Journal
- AZ: Pederson Finds Momentum in Senate Race - Arizona Republic
- AZ: Pederson Taps his Cash Cache Again - Arizona Daily Star
- AZ: Will Going on the Attack Help Pederson? - Tucson Weekly
- AZ: Kyl Gets Flak on Call for More Troops in Iraq - The Business Journal of Phoenix
- AZ: Terror Report Brings Iraq to Forefront for Kyl, Pederson - Arizona Republic
- AZ: Both Senate Candidates Back Border Fence - Phoenix Bus. Journal
- AZ: NIE Puts Iraq in Forefront for Kyl, Pederson - Arizona Republic
- AZ: Polls Give Leads to Kyl, Napolitano, Hayworth - The Business Journal of Phoenix
- AZ: Wesley Clark to Help Pederson, Mitchell - The Business Journal of Phoenix
- Pederson Ad Criticizing Kyl Misleading on Some Claims - Arizona Daily Star
- AZ: Senate Race Doesn't Dwell on Immigration - Los Angeles Times
- AZ: 'Amnesty' Takes Center Stage in Senate Race - Associated Press
- AZ: Kyl, Pederson Trade Shots - Arizona Republic
- AZ: Ad Paints Kyl as Friend of Big Oil - Tucson Daily Star
- AZ: Pederson Goes After Kyl Directly in New Ads - Arizona Republic
- AZ Senate Poll: Kyl (R) 53% Pederson (D) 34% - Rasmussen Reports
- AZ Senate Poll: Kyl (R) 45% Pederson (D) 27% - Rocky Mounatin Poll
- AZ Senate Poll: Kyl (R) 52% Pederson (D) 40% - Survey USA
- AZ: Senate Race May Be State's Priciest - Arizona Republic
- AZ: Dem Party Hopes Growth Turns to Gains - The Hill
- AZ Senate Poll: Kyl (R) 43% Pederson (D) 29% - KAET-TV
- AZ Senate Poll: Kyl By 17 Over Pederson - Rasmussen Reports
- AZ: Senate Race in U.S. Spotlight - East Valley Tribune
- Democrats See Opportunity in Arizona - New York Times
- AZ Senate Poll:Kyl (R) 40% Pederson (D) 33% - Behavior Research
- AZ: Immigration May Play Key Role in Senate Race - USA Today
- AZ Senate Poll: Kyl (R) 52% Pederson (D) 37% - Survey USA
- AZ: Deep Pockets Fund Kyl, Pederson Campaigns - East Valley Tribune
- AZ Poll: Incumbents Kyl, Napolitano Cruising - Rasmussen Reports
- AZ Senate Poll: Kyl (R) 42% Pederson (D) 31% - KAET
- AZ: McCain Defends Kyl From Critics on Immigration Issue - Phoenix Business Jrnl
- AZ: Kyl Leads Fundraising as Pederson Presses on Immigration - Phoenix Business Jrnl
- Pedersen's Az. Campaign Another Bad Sign for Dems - Robert Byers, Watchman's Words
- AZ: Pederson Fires First Ad Volleys in Senate Race - Phoenix Business Jrnl
- AZ Senate Poll: Kyl by 23 Over Pederson - Rasmussen Reports
- AZ: Pederson Looks to Make Inroads on Border, Security Fronts - Phoenix Business Jrnl
- AZ Senate Poll: Jon Kyl 57% Jim Pederson 33% - Survey USA
- AZ: Politics Probably Not Behind Drug Bust of Senate Candidate's Son - Arizona Republic