This race is probably best characterized as the “sleeper” on our list. It has not generated a lot of buzz from the national press, but many of the fundamentals are there for a Democratic pickup in this district, which stretches from just north of Evanston (home of Northwestern University) in Cook County to Waukegan in Lake County. Incumbent Mark Kirk is just in his third term, both Kerry and Gore won the district in the last two presidential contests and marketing executive Dan Seals has raised enough cash so far to offer a serious challenge. One advantage for Kirk might be the fact that Seals is a little to the left of his party’s median position on two salient issues: he favors a single-payer healthcare system and a withdrawal of troops from Iraq in 1 year.

All in all, it appears that Kirk has the advantage in this race. Indeed, an examination of the “raw scores” on our list shows that there is a sizeable jump between the #7 and #8 spots. This is probably the first spot in our list of incumbent-held Republican districts where it is fair to say that the GOP has an advantage. Of great interest will be Seals’ Q3 fundraising – if he can put the cash together in late Summer/early Fall, this could be a surprise pickup for the Democrats. The district is certainly Democratic enough to be receptive to Seals’ pitch – will he have enough cash to make it?