This InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll of the Iowa Republican caucus was conducted Dec. 16-17. The margin of error on the first question is less than 4%, and on the second question is about 5%. Both polls weighted for age and gender.

 

 

 

Note: The first question was asked of likely voters in the Republican caucus. The second question is the same as the first question, but the second question is asked of highly likely voters (based on a series of questions designed to pinpoint those most likely to participate in the caucuses.)

 

 

 

 

 

1.             If the vote for the Republican nominee for president were held today, would you vote for: (likely voters)

 

 

 

Age

Gender

 

Total

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Male

Female

(Base)

(835)

(27)

(96)

(345)

(367)

(395)

(440)

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

Huckabee

27.7

37.0

34.4

27.8

15.8

24.1

23.2

Romney

25.1

25.9

17.7

24.3

33.8

27.3

28.2

Thompson

10.1

.0

14.6

11.3

8.4

13.2

7.3

McCain

8.6

3.7

5.2

9.3

14.4

12.9

9.1

Paul

6.3

18.5

6.3

3.8

4.4

5.1

4.5

Giuliani

5.5

.0

5.2

6.7

6.3

4.8

7.3

Tancredo

3.0

.0

5.2

2.6

2.2

2.5

2.7

Hunter

1.0

.0

.0

1.4

1.9

1.0

1.8

Undecided

12.7

14.8

11.5

12.8

12.8

9.1

15.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.             If the vote for the Republican nominee for president were held today, would you vote for: (highly likely voters).

 

 

 

Age

Gender

 

Total

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Male

Female

(Base)

(418)

(14)

(46)

(189)

(169)

(190)

(228)

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

Romney

28.0

35.7

19.6

27.0

35.5

27.9

31.6

 

Huckabee

25.1

28.6

32.6

26.5

13.6

22.6

21.5

 

Thompson

10.8

.0

15.2

13.8

7.1

15.3

7.0

 

McCain

6.9

.0

2.2

7.4

14.8

11.1

8.3

 

Paul

5.5

21.4

2.2

4.2

4.1

5.3

3.9

 

Giuliani

5.1

.0

4.3

6.3

6.5

5.8

6.1

 

Tancredo

3.7

.0

6.5

3.7

1.8

2.6

3.5

 

Hunter

.5

.0

.0

.5

1.2

.5

.9

 

Undecided

14.4

14.3

17.4

10.6

15.4

8.9

17.1