MUHLENBERG COLLEGE /MORNING CALL

 

2010 Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Tracking Poll

 

 

RELEASE #14 – May 16, 2010

FIELDING PERIOD – May 12-15, 2010

SAMPLE – 430 Democratic Likely Voters in Pennsylvania

MARGIN OF ERROR - +/- 5% at 95% Level of Confidence

TOTALS MAY NOT EQUAL 100% DUE TO ROUNDING

 

 

METHODOLOGY: Beginning on May 2, 2010 and ending on May 16, 2010, The Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion and the Morning Call will be releasing daily results from their statewide Democratic primary tracking poll. The results are drawn from telephone surveys of likely Democratic voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Each dayÕs release will be based on the results of interviews conducted during the previous four days. For example, the initial release on Sunday, May 2nd was produced from interviews conducted between April 28th and May 1st. While the total sample size will alternate from day to day because of varying completion rates, the average sample sizes will be approximately 400. Precise margins of error will be identified with each release and average around +/-5% at a 95% level of confidence.

 

All interviews will be conducted by individuals who have been trained in standard interviewing procedures. The sampling frame for this research is a list of registered democratic voters from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. To determine if an individual is a likely voter the Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll uses a three step process. First, the individual must be registered to vote as a Democrat in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. This is validated through the use of registered voting records. Second, the individual must identify their likelihood of voting in the May, 2010 election as either ÒdefiniteÓ or Òvery likely.Ó Finally, the individual must have voted in the last mid-term election in which they were eligible to vote. For example, if voter was registered during the last mid-term election in 2006, voted in that election, and is currently registered as a Democrat in Pennsylvania they are included in the sampling frame for the study.

 

If an individual meets these three requirements they are identified as a likely voter. If they do not meet all three of the requirements they are excluded from participation. All registered Democratic voters who meet the likely voter criteria specified above have an equal chance of being selected for inclusion in the poll. Voters are chosen at random through a computerized selection process.

 

The data gathered through our interviewing process is statistically weighted to insure that the sample reflects the primary voters in terms of age, race, gender and region of the state. The weighting process is required because different segments of the population respond to interview requests in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men and older individuals are more likely to be reached than their younger counterparts

 

TRACKING POLL RESULTS –MAY 15, 2010

 

Key Findings

 

  1. The contest for the Democrat Party nomination for U.S. Senator is deadlocked with incumbent Senator Arlen Specter and Congressman Joe Sestak both polling at 44% two days before the May 18th Pennsylvania Primary Election..

 

  1. Allegheny County executive Dan Onorato holds a 24 point lead over his nearest challenger State Senator Anthony Williams in the race to be the Democratic Party nominee for Pennsylvania Governor.

 

Senate Race (Including Leaners)

 

 

5/02

5/03

5/04

5/05

5/06

5/07

5/08

5/09

5/10

5/11

5/12

5/13

5/14

5/15

5/16

Specter

48%

49%

46%

48%

45%

43%

42%

42%

42%

43%

45%

44%

45%

44%

44%

Sestak

42%

40%

42%

40%

40%

43%

44%

46%

47%

47%

45%

44%

43%

43%

44%

Other/Not Sure

11%

11%

12%

11%

14%

13%

14%

12%

11%

10%

9%

12%

12%

12%

11%

 

 

 

GovernorÕs Race (Including Leaners)

 

 

5/02

5/03

5/04

5/05

5/06

5/07

5/08

5/09

5/10

5/11

5/12

5/13

5/14

5/15

5/16

Onorato

41%

39%

36%

34%

34%

35%

35%

36%

35%

33%

37%

39%

39%

38%

39%

Wagner

5%

6%

8%

8%

9%

8%

8%

8%

10%

9%

9%

9%

11%

11%

10%

Hoeffel

6%

7%

9%

11%

12%

11%

10%

8%

8%

10%

8%

11%

11%

10%

9%

Williams

8%

7%

9%

9%

8%

10%

9%

12%

15%

15%

15%

14%

14%

14%

15%

Other/Not Sure

40%

41%

38%

37%

39%

36%

38%

36%

32%

34%

30%

27%

25%

26%

26%

 

 

 

Favorability Ratings for Senatorial and Government Candidates

 

Arlen Specter

 

 

5/02

5/03

5/04

5/05

5/06

5/07

5/08

5/09

5/10

5/11

5/12

5/13

5/14

5/15

5/16

Favorable

58%

58%

55%

57%

56%

54%

52%

50%

52%

52%

54%

53%

57%

58%

59%

Unfavorable

31%

32%

33%

29%

30%

34%

34%

36%

35%

34%

35%

36%

33%

31%

30%

Not Sure

10%

10%

12%

14%

13%

13%

14%

14%

13%

15%

12%

11%

10%

10%

10%

 

Joe Sestak

 

 

5/02

5/03

5/04

5/05

5/06

5/07

5/08

5/09

5/10

5/11

5/12

5/13

5/14

5/15

5/16

Favorable

45%

43%

45%

42%

44%

48%

51%

52%

55%

56%

55%

54%

52%

52%

51%

Unfavorable

12%

12%

11%

14%

13%

13%

14%

13%

14%

10%

9%

11%

13%

15%

18%

Not Sure

44%

45%

44%

45%

43%

39%

35%

35%

31%

33%

36%

34%

35%

33%

31%

 

Dan Onorato

 

 

5/02

5/03

5/04

5/05

5/06

5/07

5/08

5/09

5/10

5/11

5/12

5/13

5/14

5/15

5/16

Favorable

45%

42%

42%

40%

38%

40%

38%

39%

42%

40%

44%

44%

46%

45%

47%

Unfavorable

5%

6%

6%

10%

10%

11%

10%

9%

11%

11%

13%

12%

11%

12%

12%

Not Sure

49%

52%

52%

51%

52%

49%

52%

51%

48%

49%

43%

44%

43%

44%

42%

 

Jack Wagner

 

 

5/02

5/03

5/04

5/05

5/06

5/07

5/08

5/09

5/10

5/11

5/12

5/13

5/14

5/15

5/16

Favorable

21%

19%

22%

19%

19%

19%

18%

17%

19%

17%

20%

22%

24%

24%

24%

Unfavorable

11%

11%

10%

7%

8%

7%

6%

8%

10%

9%

10%

11%

12%

12%

13%

Not Sure

68%

70%

68%

74%

74%

75%

76%

74%

71%

74%

70%

67%

64%

65%

63%

 

Anthony Williams

 

 

5/02

5/03

5/04

5/05

5/06

5/07

5/08

5/09

5/10

5/11

5/12

5/13

5/14

5/15

5/16

Favorable

18%

16%

18%

19%

18%

20%

21%

24%

26%

28%

26%

24%

29%

30%

32%

Unfavorable

14%

13%

13%

12%

11%

12%

14%

13%

15%

13%

13%

15%

18%

17%

19%

Not Sure

68%

71%

69%

70%

71%

67%

65%

64%

60%

60%

61%

61%

53%

52%

50%

 

Joe Hoeffel

 

 

5/02

5/03

5/04

5/05

5/06

5/07

5/08

5/09

5/10

5/11

5/12

5/13

5/14

5/15

5/16

Favorable

23%

22%

25%

25%

22%

21%

20%

18%

21%

22%

21%

23%

25%

23%

22%

Unfavorable

7%

8%

8%

7%

8%

8%

8%

8%

9%

7%

6%

7%

9%

11%

12%

Not Sure

69%

70%

66%

67%

70%

70%

71%

74%

71%

71%

72%

69%

66%

67%

67%

 

 

TonightÕs ÒCrosstab of InterestÓ: Candidate Most Likely to Beat Pat Toomey in November Election by Candidate Preference

 

 

Specter (44%)

Sestak (44%)

Not Sure (11%)

Specter More Likely to Win (44%)

87%

10%

2%

Sestak More Likely to Win (29%)

1%

97%

2%

Equal Chance for Candidates (10%)

11%

54%

36%

Not Sure (17%)

22%

36%

42%