For Immediate Release—Poll Results
October 28, 2010 (9pm)
Contact:
Poll Director: Brian Robert Calfano, Ph.D.
E-mail: briancalfano@missouristate.edu
Phone: 417-836-8574
Website: http://faculty.missouristate.edu/b/briancalfano/
The KOLR 10/KSN Poll is conducted in affiliation with the following:
The Missouri State University Poll Research Center
Missouri State University Department of Political Science
Center for Social Sciences and Public Policy Research
College of Humanities and Public Affairs of Missouri State University
About The KOLR 10/KSN Poll, October 28, 2010
The KOLR10/KSN Poll was conducted between October 20th to 27th, with a scientifically selected random call sample using random digit dialing (RDD) landline and cell phone sample furnished by Survey Sampling International of 821 registered voters in Missouri, 672 of whom were determined to be ÒlikelyÓ voters in the November election. The call sample included an oversample of residents in the 4th and 7th U.S. Congressional Districts to assess public opinion on the House races there. The telephone poll included 754 landline respondents acquired through RDD, and 67 interviews of randomly selected Òcell phone onlyÓ households.
The poll was conducted through the Center for Social Sciences and Public Policy Research on the campus of Missouri State University, under the supervision of poll director Brian Robert Calfano, Ph.D.
All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population (e.g., Missouri residents), versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. The sampling error for the overall Missouri resident sample of 821 registered voters is +/- 3.4 percent, at a 95 percent confidence interval. The likely voter sample of 672 returns a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percent, at a 95 percent confidence interview. Using our registered voter margin of error as an example, if 50 percent of Missouri registered voters in our poll favored a particular position, one would be 95 percent sure that the true figure would be between 46.6 and 53.4 percent, had all Missouri registered voters been interviewed for this poll. Note that the margin of error for the House district results is higher because of the smaller sample sizes used. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or contextual effects.
Despite the use of a scientifically selected call sample, and the inclusion of cell phone only respondents, the results presented in this report were weighted using a Òsample balancingÓ procedure according to the following respondent variables: age, sex, income, and geographic location within the state. Sample balancing involves the use of an iterative weighting algorithm to create these weights. Congressional district-specific results were weighted on the age, sex, and income characteristics within each district population. All weight targets were taken from U.S. Census reports. Using weights helps to ensure that poll respondents are reflective of the Missouri or district populations more generally (as determined by U.S. Census data). Finally, these results should be viewed as a general public opinion survey of Missouri residents during the time the poll was in the field.
Obama Job Approval
Survey Question: How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president? Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job heÕs been doing? (Non responses not included)
|
Percentages within Party Categories |
Strongly Approve |
Somewhat Approve |
Somewhat Disapprove |
Strongly Disapprove |
Not Sure |
|
Likely Voters (N = 672) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Strong Democrat |
32.3% |
48.4% |
12.9% |
6.5% |
0% |
|
Weak Democrat |
46.4% |
46.4% |
0% |
3.6% |
3.6% |
|
Independent, lean Democrat |
23.1% |
32.1% |
21.8% |
21.8% |
1.3% |
|
Independent Independent, lean Republican |
8.2% 1.4% |
10.6% 11.3% |
28.2% 33.8% |
51.8% 52.1% |
1.2% 1.4% |
|
Weak Republican |
0% |
1.4% |
20.5% |
76.7% |
0% |
|
Strong Republican |
0% |
6.2% |
23.5% |
70.4% |
0% |
|
Other Party |
31.8% |
15.9% |
31.8% |
20.5% |
0% |
|
Missouri Total Obama Approval |
13.4% |
19.7% |
23.4% |
38.2% |
.9% |
|
MOE = +/- 3.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
Nixon Job Approval
Survey Question: How would you rate the job Jay Nixon has been doing as governor? Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job heÕs been doing? (Non responses not included)
|
Percentages within Party Categories |
Strongly Approve |
Somewhat Approve |
Somewhat Disapprove |
Strongly Disapprove |
Not Sure |
|
Likely Voters (N = 672) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Strong Democrat |
14.8% |
45.9% |
27.9% |
1.6% |
9.8% |
|
Weak Democrat |
32.1% |
46.4% |
10.7% |
0% |
10.7% |
|
Independent, lean Democrat |
11.4% |
54.4% |
16.5% |
10.1% |
5.1% |
|
Independent Independent, lean Republican |
10.5% 1.4% |
62.8% 45.7% |
10.5% 30.0% |
5.8% 8.6% |
8.1% 14.3% |
|
Weak Republican |
4.2% |
44.4% |
27.8% |
6.9% |
16.7% |
|
Strong Republican |
1.2% |
40.2% |
34.1% |
8.5% |
15.9% |
|
Other Party |
18.2% |
38.6% |
15.9% |
4.5% |
22.7% |
|
Missouri Total Nixon Approval |
9.2% |
47.8% |
22.9% |
6.3% |
12.7% |
|
MOE = +/- 3.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
Condition of Country
Survey Question: How well are things going in the country today: very well, fairly well, well, pretty badly, or very badly? (Non responses not included)
|
Percentages within Party Categories |
Very Well |
Fairly Well |
Well |
Pretty Badly |
Very Badly |
Not Sure |
|
Likely Voters (N = 672) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Strong Democrat |
0% |
14.5% |
21.0% |
54.8% |
9.7% |
0% |
|
Weak Democrat |
0% |
28.6% |
42.9% |
25.0% |
3.6% |
0% |
|
Independent, lean Democrat |
0% |
7.7% |
24.4% |
44.9% |
20.5% |
0% |
|
Independent Independent, lean Republican |
0% 0% |
9.5% 2.9% |
17.9% 12.9% |
39.3% 54.3% |
33.3% 30.0% |
0% 0% |
|
Weak Republican |
0% |
2.7% |
8.2% |
58.9% |
30.1% |
0% |
|
Strong Republican |
1.2% |
3.7% |
18.5% |
51.9% |
24.7% |
0% |
|
Other Party |
0% |
28.9% |
17.8% |
46.7% |
6.7% |
0% |
|
Missouri Total Condition of Country |
.2% |
9.8% |
18.1% |
47.7% |
23.8% |
0% |
|
MOE = +/- 3.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Condition of State of Missouri
Survey Question: How well are things going in the country today: very well, fairly well, well, pretty badly, or very badly? (Non responses not included)
|
Percentages within Party Categories |
Very Well |
Fairly Well |
Well |
Pretty Badly |
Very Badly |
Not Sure |
|
Likely Voters (N = 672) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Strong Democrat |
1.6% |
26.6% |
31.2% |
21.9% |
18.8% |
0% |
|
Weak Democrat |
0% |
32.1% |
35.7% |
32.1% |
0% |
0% |
|
Independent, lean Democrat |
0% |
10.1% |
35.4% |
38.0% |
11.4% |
5.1% |
|
Independent Independent, lean Republican |
2.4% 0% |
25.9% 17.1% |
31.8% 45.7% |
31.8% 31.4% |
7.1% 5.7% |
1.2% 0% |
|
Weak Republican |
0% |
11.0% |
27.4% |
38.4% |
21.9% |
1.4% |
|
Strong Republican |
0% |
16.2% |
60.0% |
15.0% |
8.8% |
0% |
|
Other Party |
9.1% |
15.9% |
31.8% |
34.1% |
6.8% |
0% |
|
Missouri Total Condition of State |
1.3% |
18.2% |
36.8% |
31.1% |
11.0% |
1.1% |
|
MOE = +/- 3.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Missouri U.S. Senate Race
Survey Question: If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate from Missouri were held today, would you vote for Robin Carnahan, the Democrat, or Roy Blunt, the Republican? (Candidate name order randomized) (Non responses not included)
|
Percentages within Party Categories |
Carnahan |
Blunt
|
Other |
Undecided |
|
Likely Voters (N = 672) |
|
|
|
|
|
Strong Democrat |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
Weak Democrat |
86.2% |
6.9% |
6.9% |
0% |
|
Independent, lean Democrat |
76.9% |
20.5% |
2.6% |
0% |
|
Independent Independent, lean Republican |
29.4% 11.4% |
67.1% 82.9% |
3.5% 5.7% |
0% 0% |
|
Weak Republican |
5.5% |
84.9% |
5.5% |
4.1% |
|
Strong Republican |
2.5% |
96.3% |
0% |
0% |
|
Other Party |
75.6% |
24.4% |
0% |
0% |
|
Missouri Total U.S. Senate |
40.7% |
53.8% |
2.8% |
2.2% |
|
MOE = +/- 3.8% |
|
|
|
|
Tea Party Movement in Missouri
Survey Question: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the tea party movement, an opponent of the tea party movement, or neither? (Response category order randomized) (Non responses not included)
|
Percentages within Party Categories |
Supporter |
Opponent |
Neither |
Not Sure |
|
Likely Voters (N = 672) |
|
|
|
|
|
Strong Democrat |
3.2% |
25.8% |
66.1% |
0% |
|
Weak Democrat |
0% |
50.0% |
42.9% |
7.1% |
|
Independent, lean Democrat |
24.1% |
16.5% |
57.0% |
2.5% |
|
Independent Independent, lean Republican |
18.8% 21.4% |
5.9% 5.7% |
61.2% 68.6% |
14.1% 4.3% |
|
Weak Republican |
45.2% |
2.7% |
45.2% |
6.8% |
|
Strong Republican |
54.3% |
1.2% |
40.7% |
3.7% |
|
Other Party
Missouri Total Tea Party |
16.3%
26.0% |
18.6%
11.8% |
55.8%
55.4% |
7.0%
6.1% |
|
MOE = +/- 3.8% |
|
|
|
|
Missouri 7th District U.S. House
Survey Question: If the 2010 election for U.S. House from Missouri 7th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Scott Eckersley, the Democrat, or Billy Long, the Republican, or Kevin Craig, the Libertarian? (Candidate name order randomized) (Non responses not included)
|
Percentages within Party Categories |
Eckersley |
Long
|
Craig |
Other |
Undecided |
|
Likely Voters (N = 199) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Strong Democrat |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
Weak Democrat |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
Independent, lean Democrat |
62.5% |
12.5% |
25% |
0% |
0% |
|
Independent Independent, lean Republican |
26.7% 6.2% |
46.7% 71.9% |
13.3% 6.2% |
0% 0% |
13.3% 15.6% |
|
Weak Republican |
0% |
66.7% |
0% |
4.8% |
28.6% |
|
Strong Republican |
6.1% |
85.7% |
4.1% |
0% |
4.1% |
|
Other Party |
0% |
30.0% |
20.0% |
0% |
50.0% |
|
Missouri 7th District Total |
22.8% |
56.2% |
7.4% |
.6% |
13.0% |
|
MOE = +/- 6.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
Missouri 4th District U.S. House[1]
Survey Question: If the 2010 election for U.S. House from Missouri 7th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Ike Skelton, the Democrat, or Vicky Hartzler, the Republican? (Candidate name order randomized) (Non responses not included)
|
Percentages within Party Categories |
Skelton |
Hartzler
|
Other |
Undecided |
|
Likely Voters (N = 159) |
|
|
|
|
|
Strong Democrat |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
Weak Democrat |
80% |
20% |
0% |
0% |
|
Independent, lean Democrat |
42.9% |
42.9% |
0% |
14.3% |
|
Independent Independent, lean Republican |
57.9% 40.0% |
36.8% 60.0% |
0% 0% |
5.3% 0% |
|
Weak Republican |
8.3% |
58.3% |
0% |
33.3% |
|
Strong Republican |
14.3% |
76.2% |
0% |
9.5% |
|
Other Party |
71.4% |
0% |
28.6% |
0% |
|
Missouri 4th District Total |
45.7% |
38.8% |
1.6% |
14.0% |
|
MOE = +/- 7.8% |
|
|
|
|
Demographic Indicators Referenced in this Report (Not sure and non responses not included)
1) As of today, how would you describe your political party affiliation?
Strong Democrat (11.3%)
Weak Democrat (5.7%)
Independent, lean Democrat (16.3%)
Independent (16.2%)
Independent, lean Republican (11.9%)
Weak Republican (11.9%)
Strong Republican (13.4)
Other party (9.0)
2) What is your gender? (weighted)
Female (52.5%)
Male (47.5%)
3) What was your age on your last birthday? (weighted)
18-34 (30.3%)
35-44 (17.5%)
45-54 (20.3%)
55-64 (12.9%)
65 and above (19.0%)
4) What is your estimated annual income? (weighted)
Less than $35,000 (45%)
$35,000-50,000 (18.1%)
$50,000-75,000 (19.2%)
$75,000-100,000 (9.0%)
$100,000+ (8.6%)
5) On November 2nd, midterm elections will be held. Missouri voters will elect a Senator, Members of Congress, and other state-level positions. Using a 1-10 scale, where 10 means you are completely certain you will vote, and 1 means you are completely certain you will NOT vote, how likely are you to vote in the upcoming elections? You can use any number between 1 and 10 to indicate how strongly you feel about your likelihood to vote.
Ò10Ó (67.1%)
Ò9Ó (4.6%)
Ò8Ó (6.1%)
Ò7Ó (2.8%)
Ò6Ó (1.2%)
Ò5Ó (3.4%)
Ò4Ó (.9%)
Ò3Ó (.9%)
Ò2Ó (.6%)
Ò1Ó (5.8%)
[1] These party-based breakdowns for Skelton and Hartzler were originally reported in the reverse. This was the result of human error in the manual transcription from the data file listing candidate support by party ID. We apologize for the inconvenience this may have caused.