McCain's NY Promise Morphs into His NJ Strategy
By Dan Janison & Craig GordonJohn McCain stood at Rockefeller Center earlier this year and made a bold prediction: I will carry New York in the fall campaign, something no Republican has done since 1984.
"We're going to campaign all over this magnificent state. We're not going to give it up to anybody!" he told a cheering primary Super Tuesday crowd in February.
So when it came time to set up his New York campaign office, where did McCain put it? Times Square? Albany?
No. New Jersey.
Woodbridge, N.J., to be exact, a good 45 minutes from midtown. And it chafed some New York politicos that the grand opening of McCain's "New Jersey/New York" regional headquarters June 25 was headlined by five pols - Garden Staters all.
There's a saying in politics that the candidates' travel schedules don't lie but reveal their true strategy. In this case, so does the real estate.
For all of McCain's big-city bravado, even his most loyal supporters know it's hard to flip bluer-than-blue New York against Democrat Barack Obama. But in Jersey? They're optimistic.
"I would say right now New York is a long shot," said Rep. Peter King (R- Seaford), a longtime McCain supporter. "But we can get the benefit of the New Jersey campaign, and if the numbers pick up, you might see more in New York."
To be sure, McCain has a lot of fans upstate and on Long Island, where he thumped George W. Bush in 2000's primary. He can count on "Reagan Democrats," who carried the state for the former president in 1984.
McCain's top man here, Ed Cox, in photo at left, insists he can put the state in play. "New Yorkers like people who solve problems, and John McCain is a problem-solver," Cox said.
So far, there are few signs of a full-court McCain campaign push in New York - except for fundraising, like his recent trip to the Hamptons that netted $2-million-plus for GOP committees. But experts see slim odds of stopping Obama here.
"There's little doubt that some red states will turn blue and some blue states will turn red" this fall, said Lee Miringoff of the Marist Poll. "But it's pretty unlikely that New York would be in that mix."
New Jersey is more competitive, with McCain holding Obama to a single-digit lead in an average of recent state polls.
But a Siena Research Institute poll this month gave Obama a 13-point edge in New York - 50-37 - and others in recent weeks put Obama up by 20-plus points.
Both candidates will be on the Island for a debate Oct. 15 at Hofstra University. King said Long Islanders will see a healthy dose of McCain ads, because he'll use New York stations to reach Jersey voters.
Obama's camp has a slate of local activities planned, including a Sept. 14 rally in Mineola, which Obama isn't expected to attend. If the race did start to tighten in New York, that would probably mean it's tightening across the country - and would be a real trouble sign for Obama.
"If we lose New York, then obviously 'Game Over.' But we're not," said Suffolk Legis. Jon Cooper, Obama's Long Island campaign chairman. "We certainly don't want to appear overconfident. That's the worst thing that can happen."