Billy House of the Arizona Republic says the push for comprehensive immigration reform will be a "main theme" in President Bush's SOTU on Tuesday, but passing a bill is still far from a slam dunk:

"Everybody, no matter who they are, is sick of the illegality and porous borders," said Tamar Jacoby, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, who has written extensively as an advocate for immigration reform. [snip]

"Latinos want to see their friends and family able to work with dignity. And soccer moms and dads want to see Congress solve something," Jacoby said.

But both she and others, including Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz., said that just because Congress is now controlled by Democrats, there are no assurances that immigration reform will be easy

"This is still going to have to be a bipartisan, practical, centrist, up-the-middle, in fact, tough immigration bill," Jacoby said.

"We're still going to need 20 Republicans in the Senate and probably 40 Republicans in the House."

Shadegg said that predictions that Democrats will help to see such a plan move through smoothly may underestimate the pressure they will receive from their organized labor constituencies who may oppose such things as a guest-worker plan.

"It's not a lay-down that Bush can get what he wants just because Democrats are now in charge," Shadegg said of immigration reform.