If you look at the chart of the RCP Average in the Virginia Senate race, you can see that Allen stabilized a 3-5 point lead in the first week of September which lasted roughly six weeks, until the third week in October. At that point Webb began to close, and later in the week the Allen campaign went to Drudge with the passages from Webb's novels. Since then, Webb has edged into the lead and the race has become a total dead heat.

The New York Times takes a look at the pivotal role women will play in the race this year. And there are rumors of money shortages at the Allen campaign - which they strenuously deny - and talk of how nasty the race has become.

But as in all the other races this year, it's going to come down to turn out. And you don't have to look any further than last year's Governor's race in Virginia to see why Allen has to be concerned. Jerry Kilgore ran a fairly poor campaign - though certainly better than Allen's - and even a big last minute push highlighted by a visit for the President failed to produce much enthusiasm.

Allen has the advantage of being an incumbent, of course, and he's also a well-known and well-liked figure among Virginia Republicans. But even with those assets, with the changing demographics in Northern Virginia, Allen has to be concerned that anything less than a fully enthusiastic by GOP voters on Tuesday may come up just a little bit short.