Ten days ago I wrote about the battle between generic polls vs. individual contest and Karl Rove's point to NPR's Robert Siegel that the press and many professional pundits were missing the boat by focusing too much on the national generic polls and not enough on what was happening in the races that were actually going to decide control of Congress.

Rove crystallizes the disconnect going with the analysis in this election. The press and pundits appear to be overly obsessed with the generic national polls that show big Democratic leads but when you start to break down the individual races that Democrats have to win to get control of each chamber it is far from a sure thing that the Democrats will capture either house. ....For those who think Democratic control of Congress is a lock, another concern is that all these scenarios are with the national generic ballot currently showing a 15+ point deficit for the GOP -- a deficit that is far more likely to shrink between now and election day, rather than grow.

Well that massive generic ballot edge the Democrats have enjoyed since the Foley scandal is indeed shrinking. Of the four polls we have seen in November, two have shown 7 and 8 point moves (Pew and ABC/Wash Post) toward the GOP with Newsweek showing a 1-point move toward the Democrats. The Time poll is a little harder to gauge the movement on because they did not poll a couple of weeks ago like the other three and their last poll was taken before the Foley scandal metastasized and blew out the generic numbers. Either way, the most recent RCP Average gives the Democrats a 10.3% edge down from over 15%, so there is little doubt that the generic average is tightening.

Closing momentum is critical in campaigns and when you combine the Generic poll move with the Mason-Dixon Senate polls released this weekend the closing kick appears to be with the GOP, that could make a real difference in a basket of 10 - 15 house races that are extremely close.