If you want a good place to focus on Tuesday night, watch the House races in Indiana and Kentucky. Polls close early in both states, and all five of the seats (IN-2, IN-8, IN-9, KY-3, KY-4) feature incumbent Republicans in very tough races.

If Republicans get swept or lose four of the five, they'll be in for a very long night. But if the GOP can hold onto three or more seats in this group of five, they'll have a shot at holding onto the House.

The most likely holds right now look to be Davis (KY-4), Northup (KY-3), and Sodrel (IN-9), in that order. Chocola has closed the gap in IN-2 and seems like he might be within striking distance. Hostettler in IN-8 is the only one of the five who appears to be headed for almost certain defeat on Tuesday.

Holding onto three or four of these seats won't necessarily mean Republican will keep control of the House - though it will certainly increase their chances. What GOP holds in IN and KY will definitely do, however, is provide an early indicator to dispell the notion of a 35 or 40 seat wave for the Democrats.