Some quick thoughts on the six house races in Indiana and Connecticut. Right now my gut feeling is the Democrats win 2 of 3 in each state. That would comport with a Democratic take over in the House, but not necessarily the wave of 30-40 seats that we hear so much about these days.

Hostettler is almost a sure loser in IN-8 and Shays is likely to lose in CT-4. Chocola in IN-2 is the next most likely to fall, followed by Johnson in CT-5, though both still have chances to hold on, with Johnson having a much better shot than Chocola. Sodrel in IN-9 falls into the same category as Johnson, though he's probably in slightly better shape and I think he will eke it out. Of the six, right now Rob Simmons in CT-2 appears most likely to hold on.

Republicans would probably be very pleased to hold onto three out of six of these seats, and Democrats would be feeling pretty good if they could win five of the six.