As a follow up to my post last night on the new Congressional polls put out by the University of New Hampshire showing bad news for Charlie Bass, the Union-Leader reports today:

The Bass campaign earlier yesterday released its own internal poll, conducted by the American Research Group, showing the race in a dead heat.

ARG had Bass leading Hodes 47 to 44 percent with a 4 percent margin of error. Pollster Dick Bennett said sampling of 619 likely voters, contacted on Oct. 30 and 31 and Nov. 1, included 35 percent Republicans, 31 percent Democrats and 34 percent independents.

He said his poll contained fewer independents than the state average because "undeclared votes are less apt to say that they are going to vote."

Bennett's showed Bass leading among Republicans 92 to 8 percent; Hodes leading among Democrats 83 to 10 percent, with 2 percent for Blevins and 5 percent undecided; and Hodes leading among independents, 46 to 38 percent with 8 percent for Blevins and 8 percent undecided.

"It's a close race," said Bennett. "It looks like Bass will do a little bit better among Republicans than Hodes will do among Democrats. But it will depend on how many independents come out and vote. They will decide it.

"I've never seen anything like it," Bennett added.

I went back and compared the results of the two polling outfits from the 2002 midterm. Here are the results:

I don't want to try and read too much into these numbers aside from stating the obvious: in 2002 it seems ARG did a better job in pre-election polls of estimating Republican support. Whether that's because ARG used a better model for predicting turnout and/or whether that model will hold true this year remains to be seen. It's also worth reiterating that the ARG poll from '02 was not associated with either candidate and the one referenced above was commissioned by the Bass campaign.