« House Notes | The RCP Blog Home Page | The IN-KY Five »

Mason-Dixon Senate Polls Good News for GOP

In the key Senate races Mason-Dixon's new batch of polls released this weekend on balance contain good news for the GOP.

Here is the movement in the Mason-Dixon polls from their previous round of polling in October.

Montana: GOP +3
Missouri: GOP +2
Tennessee: GOP +10
Virginia: Dem +5
Rhode Island: GOP +6
New Jersey: Dem +4
Pennsylvania: Dem +1
Ohio: GOP +2
Washington: Dem +1

So in the nine states Mason-Dixon polled both times in the last couple of weeks -- five moved toward the Republicans and four moved toward the Democrats. However the average movement towards the GOP was 4.6%, as opposed to only 2.8% towards the Democrats. More importantly for Republicans, three of the five states where there was movement toward the GOP are very much in play, with Rhode Island making it four out of five. Whereas for Democrats, Virginia was the only real toss up race to move their way.

The three states they did not poll two weeks ago, but did in this last batch also on balance favor Republicans. The 49 - 41 lead for Kyl eases GOP fears that Arizona might have been slipping into play. The big lead in Michigan for Stabenow doesn't do much for Democrats, as not withstanding GOP chatter that this seat was coming back into play; this was a race the Dems had already banked. And the Maryland number indicating Steele pulling to within 3 points of Cardin confirms that Maryland is indeed a serious concern for Democrats.

In the races that matter Republicans got good news in five (Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Rhode Island and Tennessee) and Democrats got good news in two (Virginia and New Jersey). The Brown 50% - DeWine 44% number in Ohio is also relatively good news for the GOP. A positive for Democrats is George Allen would have to be regarded in serious trouble and likely to lose.

Yesterday, I suggested the range in the Senate was 4-6 with a five seat pickup for the Democrats as the most likely outcome. Today's information would appear to remove the possibility of Democratic pickups above 6, and with the surprising results out of Rhode Island and the continuing confirmation that Maryland is indeed in play, the range can now credibly be as wide as 2-6.