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How the Opens Broke

Given the final result of the evening, it's a bit surprising to see that of the 12 open seats Republicans defended yesterday, they actually managed to win five of them. Here is how the list breaks down:

GOP Open Seats Won By Democrats
District
Cook PVI
Result
Spread
AZ-8
R +1
54-42
D +12
IA-1
D +5
55-43
D +12
NY-24
R +1
54-45
D +9
WI-8
R +4
51-49
D +2
OH-18*
R +6
62-36
D +26
TX-22*
R +15
52-42
D +12
FL-16*
R +2
49-48
D +1
Average
R +3.4
53.8-43.6
D +10.2

As you can see, three of the seats on this list were lost to scandal and/or corruption. Wisconsin 8 is the only one that jumps out as a seat Republicans are probably disappointed by losing.

Now here are the five seats Republicans defended:

GOP Open Seats Successfully Defended
District
Cook PVI
Result
Spread
CO-5
R +17
59-41
R +18
FL-13
R +4
50-50
TIE
IL-6
R +3
51-49
R +2
MN-6
R +5
50-42
R +8
NV-2
R +2
51-45
R +6
Average
R +6.2
52.2-45.4
R +6.8

As I wrote earlier today, I agree with the analysis that Iraq was the dominant factor in last night's election. But not every race fits neatly into that box, as is evident by looking at this list. With the exception of FL-13, where the Republican underperformed the district's Cook PVI (Partisan Voting Index), the Republican margin of victory in the other four races met or exceeded the partisan orientation of the district.

That's not what one would expect to see - especially with respect to open seats in only moderately Republican leaning districts - given anti-Republican tide we saw in motion last night. But for whatever reason, the Democratic surge didn't materialize in these districts last night. There are any number of factors at play in each race that could help account for this, including financial advantage, quality of challenger, and superior GOTV.

But even among that group, Illinois 6 stands out as an anomaly. In an anti-Republican year with Iraq as a backdrop to the entire election, how did Republican Peter Roskam defeat a well-financed, double amputee veteran of the war in a moderate GOP district? I know Roskam had a superior GOTV effort, but my hunch is that he - and probably the others in the group of open seats as well - may have benefitted from the fact they weren't incumbents this year and thus were spared, to at least some degree, the wrath that voters inflicted on Republicans elsewhere around the country last night.