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Where The Senate Stands - Part I

There is a new batch of Senate polls out today from USA Today/Gallup on the heels of the Reuters/Zogby round yesterday. So let's take a brief state-by-state look at where things stand after processing all the new information:

New Jersey
There's an overwhelming amount of evidence that after trailing for some time Bob Menendez has edged ahead in this race. There have been six polls taken in the last 10 days in New Jersey, and Menendez is ahead in five of them, with leads ranging from one to eleven percent. The ReaClearPolitics Average shows Menendez up by 3.3%. Menendez has also moved to a slight favorite in trading on the Intrade futures markets.

The Democrats could hardly get better news than a Menendez recovery in New Jersey, because it looked for a while like he was going to be doomed by the federal probe into his finances and that a Kean victory would demolish any hopes of Democrats winning back the Senate. That could still happen, of course, but things look a whole lot different with Menendez out in front.

Tennessee
This has turned into an absolute street fight. Three out of the five polls taken in the last ten days show Harold Ford with a slight edge, one shows Corker ahead by a single point, and one is a flat out tie. Ford is currently up 2.0 points in the RealClearPolitics Average and he's now also a slight favorite on Intrade (53 bid vs. 40 bid for Corker).

Corker has been bumbling and stumbling along, and recently revamped much of his campaign team. They had better get it together quickly. Ford is running a strong campaign and getting the better of it right now, though the crucial battle for middle Tennessee is really just getting under way. Ford is probably also helped on the margin by the fact that incumbent Democrat Phil Bredesen is running away with the Governor's contest. In a race this close even the shortest coattails might make the difference.

Missouri
Another ridiculously close race, and probably the key to determining who wins control of the Senate. The last four polls taken in this race come out to a 44.3 to 44.3 tie in the newest RealClearPolitics Average, with just over 9 percent undecided. The Intrade markets show Republican Jim Talent improving his position from the other day (55 bid to 46 bid), which is probably a reaction to the Reuters/Zogby poll out yesterday showing him with a four-point lead. I would expect it to swing back to a dead heat based on the USAT/Gallup out this morning showing McCaskill up three.

Stem cells are playing a bigger role in this race than probably any other in the country, and McCaskill put the issue front and center again this week by bringing in Michael J. Fox for a fundraiser. Meanwhile, the NRSC launched an attack against McCaskill this week for allegedly saying one thing to rural voters and another to her urban constituents. The goal is to protect Talent's lead in rural areas, which is where this race will be won or lost.

Virginia
Probably the only bright spot in the country for the GOP is that despite the macaca, ham sandwich, and n-word controversies, George Allen seems to have stabilized a small lead in the latest round of polls. Four of the five polls taken in the last two weeks show Allen with leads ranging from 3-11 points. One poll, by the very reputable Mason-Dixon, has the race a tie. Allen holds a 5.3% lead in the updated RealClearPolitics Average, and he's moved out to a strong lead in the Intrade markets.

Obviously, this race is far from over. Yesterday Jim Webb announced a big fundraising quarter, saying that he has close to $3 million in the bank for the final weeks of the race. That will certainly keep the pressure on Allen and make this race very competitive right to the end. But Allen has plenty of money too, and after all the stuff that has been thrown at him, the fact he hasn't ever lost the lead says a lot about his strength as a candidate and the structural advantages he has in this race.

Rhode Island
The USA Today/Gallup poll showing Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse with an 11 point lead is a bit out of whack with the other recent polls in this race. Reuters/Zogby has Whitehouse's lead at 4 and Mason-Dixon pegs it at 1. Nevertheless, Whitehouse is pretty clearly in the lead at the moment and the latest filing shows he's got a strong cash advantage over Chafee. McCain was in town for Chafee earlier this week, but Whitehouse is countering by bringing in Barack Obama next week.

I know the GOP was very pleased with its turnout operation during the primary, but it's going to have to be firing on all cylinders on November 7 if Chafee wants to hold onto his seat.

Maryland
Again, the USA Today/Gallup poll released today is a bit at odds with other recent independent polls, showing Democrat Ben Cardin with a big 15 point lead over Republican Michael Steele (a new partisan poll released by Republicans shows Steele within four). Right now Cardin leads in the RealClearPolitics Average by nearly 10 percent. Realistically, Steele needs to cut Cardin's lead in the RCP Avg at least in half by the final week of the campaign to have any real shot at the upset.

Cardin and Steele engaged in their first debate earlier this week, though from the press reports it seems unlikely to have any effect. The two are scheduled to square off on Meet the Press at the end of the month.

The big question in this race is how the African-American vote responds. Will blacks vote in decent numbers for Steele? Will they stay home? The Washington Times reports this morning that there is "undercurrent of discontent with the Maryland Democratic Party's lack of black statewide candidates." John wrote a couple of weeks ago about this possibly being a factor. It's a question we won't really have a definitive answer to until the morning after the election.