On Tuesday, SurveyUSA released polls in Tennessee and Kentucky that showed post-Foley movement toward Republicans. Tonight they have released polls in Missouri and Ohio that show movement toward Democrats. Ohio's Senate poll moved four points toward Sherrod Brown and now has him with a 14-point lead over Mike DeWine, considerably higher than the RCP Average that has Brown ahead 5.7%. In Missouri, SurveyUSA shows an 8-point move toward Democrat Claire McCaskill giving her a 51% to 42% lead, - again, considerably higher than the RCP Average which stands at McCaskill +1.8%.

So in the Midwest, in four competitive contests in post-Foley surveys from the same polling firm, we have two polls that show 5 and 7 point moves toward Republicans and two polls with 4 and 8 point moves toward the Democrats. I spoke to SurveyUSA's Jay Leve earlier today and he likened the situation to a "bubbling hot tub" where there are no real discernible trends toward either party but rather independent races each going their own way for their own reasons.

FOX News released a generic poll late today that contained (relatively) good news for the GOP as their congressional generic ballot actually moved two points toward Republicans from their last poll in late August. The bad news for Republicans is the RCP Generic Average stands nearly six points higher and gives Democrats a sizable 14.8% lead.