In the battle for control of the House of Representatives, RCP currently rates 10 seats as Leans Democrat, 14 seats as Toss Ups and 21 seats in the Lean GOP column. On the Democratic side there are 5 seats in play, all rated Lean Democrat.

Using an 80% victory rate for the Lean races and splitting Toss Ups 50/50 produces an 18-seat pick up for Democrats based on where RCP sees the House races this morning. (This will obviously change as we move seats from Lean to Toss Up and vice versa in the closing days.)

Republican Seats
Leans Democrat: 10 seats x 80% Win Rate = Dems Pick Up 8 Seats
Toss Up: 14 seats x 50% Win Rate = Dems Pick Up 7 Seats
Leans Republican: 21 seats x 20% Win Rate = Dems Pick Up 4.2
Democratic Seats
Leans Democrat: 5 seats X 80% Win Rate = Dems Hold 4, Lose 1

Net Democratic Pick Up = 18 Seats

Given the fluidity and uncertainly in this election and because so many of these races are very close, a break one way or another at the end could have an exaggerated effect on the final result. A hard closing move toward Democrats could see most of the Toss Ups fall their way, as well as a significant number of the Lean GOP seats. On the other hand, a firming of the Republican base coupled with a huge GOP get-out-the-vote effort could see Republican losses considerably below the current conventional wisdom. Based on the top 50 seats, as well as the Likely seats in play, we could see Democratic pick ups as few as 7 and as high as 37.

These low and high range scenarios are certainly not the most likely outcomes, but this is not like the last two elections where you could pin the House results into a 10-seat range with a high degree of certainty.