MSNBC is trumpeting three new Mason-Dixon polls in Montana, Ohio and Tennessee as "Democrats Run Strong in Senate Races." Having spoken with Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon earlier this week, I was extremely interested in what Mason-Dixon's new round of polling was going to show - especially given MSNBC's headline this morning. Mason-Dixon does some of the best state polling in the country, so I take their numbers very seriously and my first reaction looking at the horserace numbers is that they aren't really that bad of news for Republicans. The truth is Democrats must win 2 of these 3 races if they hope to do well this cycle, and today's polls in these three states suggest that they are only holding a strong advantage in Montana.

After Pennsylvania, Montana is the Republicans biggest vulnerability and today's poll showing Burns at 40% and trailing by 7 points is nothing but bad news for the GOP. Burns can't be totally counted out because Montana is a conservative state, but the poll only confirms this looks like a Democratic pickup.

The Ohio numbers are a mixed bag for each side. On one hand it is bad news for an incumbent Senator to be trailing by two points and only polling at 43%, but on the other hand trailing by two is whole lot better than trailing by 5, 6, or 10 which is where several other recent polls have pegged this race. You would have to give the edge to the Democrats and Brown in Ohio, as of today, but the Mason-Dixon poll is only more confirmation that this will be a dog fight to the end, not that Brown is likely to win.

The Tennessee results at first blush look bad for Republicans as this is a race they had hoped would not be this close. But when I look at Ford 43% - Corker 42%, the question that comes to mind is how is Ford going to get that 43% over 50%? When Corker and the Republicans get their ads cranked up in this race I think he is going to have a considerably easier time getting his number to 50% than Ford, given the conservative leanings of Tennessee. Harold Ford has run a very strong campaign to date and is an extremely impressive politician, but his family baggage and the fact his base lies in the western part of the state in Memphis, as opposed to Corker's base in the east is going to work against him in the home stretch. Ford may lead by one in this poll, but Corker holds the advantage.

Given where political expectations stand today just winning Pennsylvania and Montana and one other from Ohio, Rhode Island or Missouri will not be considered a good night for Democrats, especially with Menendez's ethical cloud appearing to give Republicans the edge in capturing New Jersey.

(As a side note, I do think this unfolding Foley scandal in the House has the potential to cause real problems for the GOP across the board - including on the margin in these Senate races - we will have to watch how this news plays out over the next several days.)