Foley Fallout By the Numbers
Here's the detail on the AP-Ipsos poll, which was in the field on Monday, October 2 through Wednesday, October 4 - all post Foley. Congress job approval rating remains essentially unchanged, not totally surprisingly since it's hard to register much lower than an already dismal 25%. But here are the two questions most relevant to trying to decipher the potential fallout from Foleygate:
| Which comes closest to your feelings about the Republican leadership in Congress? | |||
All |
RVs |
LVs |
|
| Enthusiastic | 5 |
5 |
6 |
| Satisfied, but not enthusiastic | 31 |
32 |
30 |
| Dissatisfied, but not angry | 42 |
39 |
35 |
| Angry | 20 |
23 |
28 |
| How important will recent disclosures of corruption and scandal in Congress be to your vote in November? | |||
All |
RVs |
LVs |
|
| Not at all important | 18 |
19 |
21 |
| Slightly important | 15 |
15 |
15 |
| Moderately important | 19 |
18 |
16 |
| Very important | 25 |
25 |
24 |
| Extremely important | 22 |
23 |
24 |
Perhaps most interesting is that in the generic ballot question among REGISTERED voters, Democrats increased their lead over Republicans to 16 points this poll (54-38) versus the 12 point lead they had in the AP-Ipsos poll taken in mid-September (51-39). However, Democrats actually lost ground in the generic ballot question (albeit slightly) among LIKELY voters in the new survey, dropping from a 14-point lead last month (53-39) to a 10 point lead this month (51-41). That could just be statistical noise, of course, but it certainly is interesting - and not at all what one would expect.
By the way, that poll I teased earlier in the day containing bad news for Tom Reynolds is now available here.