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October 31, 2006

Senate Update

Here a wrap up of the key Senate races in Missouri, Virginia, New Jersey and Tennessee from tonight's FOX Report with Shepard Smith.



Since then there is a new SurveyUSA poll in Missouri that has McCaskill up 3 points and has swung the RCP Average to McCaskill + 0.2. Right now, just strictly off the RCP Averages, the Dems would pick up 6 seats (PA, OH, RI, MT, VA & MO) and control of the Senate. Missouri and Virginia are still clear toss ups and Republicans do have pick up opportunities in New Jersey and the potential sleeper surprise of the night in Maryland. Michael Steele just picked up a critical endorsement yesterday that should help him build on his momentum coming out of his debates with Cardin. He trails by 5.3 in the latest RCP average.

Key Senate Races Tonight on the FOX Report

Media Alert: I will be on the FOX Report With Shepard Smith tonight around 7:45 est to talk about the key races in the Battle for the Senate.

It's the Morality, Stupid? Prove It

Robert Stacy, an associate professor in the Robertson School of Government at Regent University, writes in today's Philadelphia Inquirer:

But when serious threats to our sense of security or moral stability emerge, priorities shift. Woe to the candidate who trots out the latest figures from the Labor Department or the Congressional Budget Office at a time when Americans are feeling moral outrage.

The Foley scandal generated just such a sense of moral outrage. The political fallout from his misconduct will be clear soon enough, and like many other ethical scandals, it may take down or seriously injure more than just the guilty until the public outrage has run its course.

One thing is certain. In 2006, it's not the economy. It's morality, stupid.

Stacey could very well end up being right, but outside of the few Congressional districts where the Foley scandal had an obvious direct impact like FL-16 and NY-24 and the general public disgust registered in national surveys, I'd love to see him cite some specific evidence to support his hypothesis. I haven't seen it.

In fact, one number that caught my attention from the Daily Herald polls on IL6 and IL8 released yesterday was this:

In the 8th Congressional District race, only 2 percent of those surveyed in a Daily Herald/ ABC 7 Chicago poll listed it as the major reason they're picking Democratic U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean over Republican challenger David McSweeney.

To the south, just 1 percent in the 6th Congressional District listed the GOP page scandal as the primary reason they'll back Democratic Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth over Republican state Sen. Peter Roskam.

These districts may be filled with less hardcore cultural conservatives than other vulnerable Republican seats in Indiana and Kentucky, for example, but they are Republican-leaning districts full of conservatives who may be mad at their party for any number of reasons, but the pervy internet indiscretions of a gay Republican Congressman from Florida doesn't seem to be one of them.

Adwatch '06: Pete Ricketts

Republican Pete Ricketts is thought by many to be a rising GOP star. But this year ain't his year, as he's running well behind in the only polls that have been taken in this race. Nevertheless, here is a recent commercial from Ricketts, working the only angle he has against Ben Nelson as best he can:

More on Stuck on Stupid

Two points on the John Kerry slam on our troops. When the Harry Reid land sale scandal broke, I wrote that the 527 Media would bury the story, and they did. This time, neither the NYT nor the networks will be able to contain the fire Kerry started and continues to stoke.

Kerry's remarks began as just icing atop the Democrats' contempt for the military. It's a subset of Jack Murtha's remarks about how the army is broken, how our troops are disgruntled and why we have to bring everybody out of Iraq to rebuild the force before it falls apart all together. Question for Messrs. Tester, Brown, Menendez, Webb, Ford and Ms. McCaskill: do you agree with John Kerry's remarks?

Sen. John McCain didn't agree and demanded - in pretty strong language -- that Kerry apologize. Which came out about the time Kerry was saying that only right wing nuts who've never worn the uniform or fought in a war were decrying what he said.

Kerry just made it much worse. He just held a news conference on it and insisted that his sneering remarks at Pepperdine University were aimed at the president, not at the troops. Look again at the film clip and judge for yourself. At the press conference, Kerry's words got more and more heated as he went on. He's still accusing Republicans of twisting his words, refusing to debate and failing in Iraq. His rather risible explanation for his remarks was that when he talked about those who didn't do well in school, he was talking about the Bush administration. At this rate, Republicans should hope Kerry keeps talking all throughout the week and until the polls close on Tuesday.

Kerry's Gift

If Republicans really are depressed heading into this election, there's nothing quite like a public yelling match over John Kerry's willingness to insult U.S. troops to offer a little pick me up. After McCain called on Kerry to apologize, Tony Snow at the White House followed suit, adding that Kerry's remarks were "an absolute insult" to U.S. soldiers and their families.

Instead of taking his lumps and apologizing for his ridiculous comments, Kerry went off:

"If anyone thinks a veteran would criticize the more than 140,000 heroes serving in Iraq and not the president who got us stuck there, they're crazy. This is the classic G.O.P. playbook. I'm sick and tired of these despicable Republican attacks that always seem to come from those who never can be found to serve in war, but love to attack those who did.

I'm not going to be lectured by a stuffed suit White House mouthpiece standing behind a podium, or doughy Rush Limbaugh, who no doubt today will take a break from belittling Michael J. Fox's Parkinson's disease to start lying about me just as they have lied about Iraq. It disgusts me that these Republican hacks, who have never worn the uniform of our country lie and distort so blatantly and carelessly about those who have."

Nowhere in the statement does John Kerry address the substance of what he said. I understand that Kerry has been eager to show off his tough new, "I WONT BE SWIFT-BOATED AGAIN!!!" strategy that he thinks will help convince Democrats to give him another chance at the brass ring in 2008, but to trot out this tripe to defend an insult against U.S. troops is breathtakingly arrogant - and it's an absolute gift to the GOP seven days before an election.

Kerry over the top response assures that he'll dominate the news chatter for the next 24 hours or more. And you can bet that Republicans in Congressional and Senate races around the country are prepping press releases as we speak (if they haven't already been sent out), calling on their Democratic opponents to disavow Kerry's remarks. It'll be interesting to see how that little drama plays out in the coming days.

Big Endorsement for Steele

Maryland tilts strongly Democratic, but what many people don't realize is a sizable number of Democratic votes in Maryland come from only 3 of the 24 counties in the state. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend got 48% of the vote against Gov. Bob Ehrlich, but only won Prince George's, Montgomery and Baltimore City. Prince George's county is the most affluent African-American county in the United States and is home to 320, 000 registered Democrats. Yesterday, Prince George's former county executive Wayne Curry and five fellow black Democrats from the County Council endorsed the Republican Michael Steele.

This endorsement carries an enormous amount of weight in Maryland's African-American community in the Washington suburbs. With Steele himself a Washington and PG County native, and his opponent a long-time Baltimore City congressman, Steele is well-positioned to eat into this traditional Democratic stronghold.

A quick look at the RCP Chart of this race shows Steele steadily climbing the last three weeks. He trails Cardin by 5.3% in the latest RCP Average. If he can pull to within 3 points the odds for scoring the big upset will increase dramatically.

Interesting that the two states that sandwich Washington DC may see the biggest upsets on election night.

McCain: "An Insult to Every Soldier Serving in Combat"

McCain Calls on Kerry to apologize (via Drudge)

Senator Kerry owes an apology to the many thousands of Americans serving in Iraq, who answered their country's call because they are patriots and not because of any deficiencies in their education. Americans from all backgrounds, well off and less fortunate, with high school diplomas and graduate degrees, take seriously their duty to our country, and risk their lives today to defend the rest of us in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere.

They all deserve our respect and deepest gratitude for their service. The suggestion that only the least educated Americans would agree to serve in the military and fight in Iraq, is an insult to every soldier serving in combat, and should deeply offend any American with an ounce of appreciation for what they suffer and risk so that the rest of us can sleep more comfortably at night. Without them, we wouldn't live in a country where people securely possess all their God-given rights, including the right to express insensitive, ill-considered and uninformed remarks.

If you haven't seen the video clip it is 10 seconds long and right here. His words and tone say everything about John Kerry and it one of the core reasons he is not President.

Iowa & the Rural Vote

Veteran Iowa political reporter/columnist David Yepsen writes today:

Democratic prospects are very good, but some Democrats seem overconfident. Polls aren't predictors, and they can close rapidly in the final days of a campaign.

In Iowa, the much ballyhooed Democratic absentee-ballot program isn't producing the results it produced in the last mid-term election. Democratic strategists still think they'll produce 10,000 to 15,000 more absentee votes than Republicans do, but that's not a comfortable margin heading into Election Day, when Republicans have the superior get-out-the-vote operation.

In his last column, however, Yepsen pointed to the new poll by Center For Rural Strategies showing significant deterioration of GOP standing among rural voters. The poll surveyed rural voters "41 contested U.S. House races"and found Democrats candidates preferred by a 52-39 margin over Republicans. That number was 45-45 last month, according to the survey.

Incidentally, this is the kind of survey that Jay Cost referred to this way:

As a method, I find this "polling of the X most vulnerable races" to be quite suspect. Not in and of itself, but rather because it inclines one to draw race-by-race inferences. But these sorts of inferences cannot be drawn. At all. I view polls like this as akin to entrapment - they are goading you into making an inferential error.

That isn't to say the thrust of the poll isn't accurate - it may indeed be that Republican support among rural voters is sinking this year - only that without looking at the data on individual races it's impossible to say how such a lack of support might manifest itself and what electoral impact it may or may not have seven days from now.

That Harold Ford "Racist Ad"

Today E.J. Dionne bashes Republicans for running negative, racist ads, highlighting the Harold Ford ad in Tennessee that has received so much attention from the media elite:

And there is what will, sadly, become the most famous advertisement of this election cycle, the "Harold, call me'' ad run by the Republican National Committee against Rep. Harold Ford Jr., the Democratic candidate for the Senate from Tennessee. To claim that an ad depicting a pretty blonde woman coming on to an African-American politician does not play on the fears of miscegenation on the part of some whites is to ignore history. My hunch is that the sliminess won't work this year.

A reader from Tennessee responds to Dionne:

I have lived in Tennessee for 50 years. Ever since 1970 when Al Gore's father turned against the Vietnam War and thought he did not have to justify himself to voters, Democratic candidates for statewide federal office have explained their losses by playing the race card. It has not changed. Only a blithering moron could look at the "Call me, Harold" ad and see subliminal miscegenation. The problem is that 95% of the Washington press corps, and, oh, 98% of the New York press corp are blithering morons. We hicks in Tennessee see a man who has conducted most of his campaign from a church pew and, for some reason, had trouble explaining why he went to a Playboy party. Gosh darn, we have running water down here, and even flush toilets. Oh, but thanks for reminding me: I have to wash my sheets for the big Klan rally Saturday night. Who is indulging in stereotypes here? Who is obsessed with the notion of a black man and black woman getting together? None of the Tennessee hicks that I know, but apparently most of the enlightened members of the fourth estate in Washington and New York, not to mention a couple of political science profs at Vanderbilt who would run over you to get in front of a camera or microphone to pronounce on something equally silly.

Harold Ford Jr. is going to lose this race, not because he is black, but because he is the scion (gosh we hicks know a few words) of the most corrupt political family in the state since the 1930s. He has moved from college, to law school, straight to Congress, like a champion blue tick hound bred for the hunt. His family has treated the Ninth District Congressional seat like a wholly owned subsidiary and if you don't believe me ask Steve Cohen, one of the most liberal members of the state legislature who thought he had won the Democratic primary for the seat, only to find himself challenged in the general election by Harold's questionable brother.

The last paragraph is a huge reason why Harold Ford is likely to lose this race and is something we pointed it out in our initial analysis. As for the racist nature of the "Harold, Call Me" ad, Ford himself told Chris Wallace on Sunday he didn't think "race had anything to do with that ad." I guess E.J. Dionne, Chris Matthews and other Washington liberals know better.

Ford was quite impressive in his interview with Chris Wallace this weekend on FOX News Sunday and he had run a great campaign up until two weeks ago when he crashed Bob Corker's press conference. Since then he has been stumbling, and he committed another gaffe this past weekend when he accused Republicans of not loving God.

The RCP Average in this race is now up to Corker +3.7% and unless something dramatic happens in the last week, Corker now appears to have established control. However, at only 36 years old, if Corker does go on to win I suspect this won't be the last Tennessee sees of Harold Ford.

John Kerry: Stuck on Stupid

Hard to believe, but true:

The John Kerry for President 2008 juggernaut just keep on a hummin'.

One Week Left

In addition to the new chart of 2006 House races that went up last week, yesterday we put up a chart of the most competitive 2006 Senate races and all of the 2006 Governor's races. You can find all the 2006 races RCP is tracking here.

John posted an updated analysis on the House yesterday. Today, let's take a quick look at the Senate.

Dems are holding solid leads in PA and OH and smaller leads in RI and MT. With two polls in the last 24 hours showing Jim Webb edging ahead of George Allen, however, based on the RCP Avgs the Dems would pick up five seats if the election were held today.


Three new polls in NJ
show Bob Menendez stabilizing a lead, and it looks like things are moving ever so slightly in his direction at the moment.

In Tennessee, Republican Bob Corker appears to be in control and has moved out to a 3.7% lead in the current RCP Average.

Missouri remains insanely close: The last two polls - including a CNN poll out this morning - show the race tied, and Republican Jim Talent is up just 1.6% point in the latest RCP Avg. Control of the Senate may literally come down to a few thousand votes in the Show Me state on election night.

Finally, Maryland continues to lurk as the spoiler of the year. Michael Steele is running a near flawless campaign and has the momentum. Yesterday he picked up more endorsements from the African-American community which cannot hurt his bid against Ben Cardin. In what is turning out to be a most unpredictable year, how ironic would it be if Democrats rode a favorable anti-GOP wind and knocked off six incumbent Republicans - including two from Missouri and Virginia - only to be stymied at the end by losing overwhelmingly Democratic Maryland to a black Republican? It's not out of the question.

In addition to the Senate, there are a host of new polls out this morning, all available on RCP's latest polls page which is updated continually throughout the day.

Shameless Rod

How stupid does Rod Blagojevich think the voters of Illinois are? There's a concept called "conflict of interest" which the public understands pretty well and most politicians treat with a certain amount of seriousness. Entering public life doesn't mean that a person and every member of their family has to quit everything else or stop doing business altogether, but it does mean that they should reevaluate any business relationships that might be called into question or give off the appearance of impropriety.

So it's especially insulting that Rod Blagojevich, who is careening his way to reelection amid a flurry of prosecutions and guilty pleas for corruption among some of his closest aides and political boosters, responds to inquiries about his wife's business dealings by assailing the questions as "Neanderthal and sexist." The Chicago Tribune has the story:

The governor's comments were his first on the matter since the Tribune reported First Lady Patricia Blagojevich received more than $113,000 in real estate commissions through a woman who holds a long-standing no-bid state contract and whose banker husband has business pending before state regulators. [snip]

"You know, there's a sexist quality to that story--somehow moms who have their own businesses, who are women, can't do things that way--that's implicit in that story," said Blagojevich, who is seeking re-election and is being challenged by Republican Judy Baar Topinka. "My wife is a professional. She's a licensed real estate appraiser, a licensed real estate broker who works real hard and does a real good job for her clients. ... There's absolutely no connection of one, at all, of one or the other."

The governor then jumped into a black SUV and shut the door, but seconds later climbed back out to continue making his point.

"Working women are very much a part of the real life experience today for families across our state. And to suggest she doesn't have the right to have her own business and pursue her own business is Neanderthal and sexist," Blagojevich said before getting back in the SUV.

The four real estate deals involving the Chicago couple, Anita and Amrish Mahajan, account for the only commissions Patricia Blagojevich received this year.

That's some "professional business" Rod's wife is running: 4 real estate deals worth $113K in commissions, all from the same couple who both have ties to state business. Nope, nothing worth looking at there you knuckle dragging, sexist reporters. The guy really is shameless.

Republicans thought they had fielded a halfway decent candidate in Judy Baar Topinka. Elected Treasure three times, Topinka was the only Republican with enough appeal to hang on when the GOP was swept out of statewide office in 2004. But she's been a surprisingly weak and truly uninspiring candidate. Granted, she's faced an unprecedented crush of negative TV ads as Blagojevich has emptied his huge war chest over the last few months. But even with all the negative headline and scandal issues surrounding Blagojevich she's been unable to gain any traction at all. Blagojevich's unfavorable rating in the latest poll is a ridiculous 57%, but Topinka is still pulling only 38% of the vote, while Green Party candidate Rich Whitney is rising into double-digits.

In a normal year and/or against a better candidate, Blagojevich would go down in a big way. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like that's going to happen this year.

Asked and Answered

Headline from USA Today: If Dems take over the House ...

Headline in the Washington Times: Democrats wait in the wings with subpoenas

The Harris Odyssey

Anyone still interested in tracking what's left of the Katherine Harris for Senate campaign can peruse this profile in today's Washington Post and/or this one by Jim Stratton in the Orlando Sentinel.

In the WaPo story, Darryl Paulson, a political scientist at the University of South Florida, sums up the race this way:

"The only way Bill Nelson could lose this is if he got himself in a drug-induced stupor and ran naked down the main street of his home town."

Even that probably wouldn't do it.

Quote of the Day

"I'd like to welcome President Clinton. ... And I see she's brought her husband." - Mick Jagger, at Bill Clinton's 60th birthday bash on Sunday.

October 30, 2006

Sullivan's Broad Strokes

For a smart guy, Andrew Sullivan sure says some dumb things. Like this, where he sarcastically refers to Rick Santorum's latest attack on Bob Casey as "Christianism in its finest hour." Please.

We can all agree Santorum is getting desperate. And if you look at the chart of the RCP Average for the PA Senate race it's easy to see why: on September 1, Santorum was at 40%. Today, just eight days from the election, he's still at 40%. Nothing Santorum has tried over the last eight weeks have moved the needle at all.

Sullivan might have had a point if Santorum had said something akin to Katherine Harris's "if you don't elect Christians you're legislating sin" remark - and I suppose it's within the realm of possibility that Santorum goes there in the next week. But so far, he hasn't. Santorum's over-the-top attacks on Casey are about national security - the most salient issue Republicans have left on the table this year - and Sullivan makes a fool of himself by trying to fit such a square peg into the round, "Christianist" hole he's created.

So, too, does Sullivan like to smear the GOP as the party of bigots and homophobes. There is significantly more resistance to gay marriage on the right than the left, for sure, so Sullivan's characterization is correct in the broadest, most general sense. But take a look at the results from the latest Newsweek poll which breaks down the question of gay marriage and you'll see that one out of every three self-described Democrats and Independents is against any legal recognition for homosexuals whatsoever:

15. There has been much talk recently about whether gays and lesbians should have the legal right to marry someone of the same sex. Which of the following comes closest to your position on this issue? Do you... Support FULL marriage rights for gay and lesbian couples, or support gay civil unions or partnerships, BUT NOT gay marriage, or do you oppose ANY legal recognition for gay and lesbian couples?
 
Marriage
Rights
Civil Unions
No Legal Recognition
TOTAL
24
26
40
Republicans
9
27
58
Democrats
34
23
33
Independents
24
32
33

Note, too, that by combining the Republican responses you find that just over one out of every three self-described Republicans favors either full marriage rights for gays or civil unions. Given that I generally consider myself part of this libertarian-minded group, I find the constant use of broad, smearing strokes by a polemicist of Sullivan's caliber to be about as effective as a brain surgeon wielding a butterknife.

George Allen in Trouble

Rasmussen Reports just released a Virginia Senate poll showing George Allen trailing by 5 points (with leaners). This comes on the heels of a poll they did just last Tuesday which showed Allen up 2 points (with leaners). That's a seven-point move in less than a week. Without leaners it is only three point move, but with election day a week away, leaners very much count.

From our updated Virginia analysis:

If the direction of this poll, not necessarily the magnitude of the move, but the direction is confirmed by other major polling -- George Allen is in big, big trouble. This race had already crept up to #7 on RCP's most vulnerable Senate seats and Allen had real risks heading into election day just by his inability to shake off Webb when he was leading in the RCP Average. Now with Webb moving out to a lead in the latest RCP Average, the Allen campaign better hope this poll is a weekend outlier.

The only big news event in this race was the Allen campaign's dump of sexually provocative passages from Jim Webb's many novels. The conventional wisdom had been that this would hurt Webb in Virginia. Was the conventional wisdom very wrong? Did Allen see his numbers deteriorating and decide he needed to dump the Webb stuff? Or is this is just one poll taken on the weekend that will turn out to be an outlier? We'll find out soon enough.

Allen has now moved up to #5 on RCP's list of most vulnerable incumbents.

More on Connecticut House Races

Interesting email on Connecticut 5 referring to my earlier post on the Courant poll showing Nancy Johnson now trailing by 4 points.


The story on that poll cited by John says that much of Murphy's success is due to him overperforming in the affluent Farmington Valley suburbs: "But the UConn poll apparently shows that Johnson's support there has been cut roughly in half, with Murphy leading among likely Farmington Valley voters by 52 percent to 36 percent."

I live in the Farmington Valley, and all I can say to this statement is: no way. No way is Johnson down by 16 here. I see the yard signs, most of which are for Johnson. I talk to neighbors and I know the people who live in the Farmington Valley. Yes, Murphy will do better here than Johnson's past challengers have, in part because the Valley has gone from Red to Purple in recent years, as many of the new arrivals are the sort of Volvo-driving, Starbuck's-patronizing bobos David Brooks writes about. But there is no way Johnson is down by 16 here.

A Research 2000 poll has just come out in CT-4 which shows Shays trailing by the same spread, 47% - 43%. Shays is generally considered to be the most vulnerable of the three GOP incumbents in Connecticut.

The Illinois Twins

IL6 and IL8 are two of the most hotly contested races in the country, the former being one of the GOP's strongest chances of holding a vulnerable open seat and the latter being one of the very few chances Republicans have this year at stealing a seat from the Dems.

In some ways these district are like a pair of conjoined twins, with the eighth district being the more conservative of the two:

 
IL6
IL8
Cook PVI
R+3
R+5
2004 Presidential Vote
Bush +6
Bush +12
2000 Presidential Vote
Bush +9
Bush +14

Republican Henry Hyde has represented the sixth since 1974. Republican Phil Crane represented the eighth from 1969 through 2004 when voters replaced him with Democrat Melissa Bean.

A new poll from the Daily Herald shows both races to be extremely close, with Republican Peter Roskam holding a slight edge in IL6 and incumbent Democrat Melissa Bean with a slight edge in the eigth. You can find updated analyses on these races here: IL6 | IL8.

One final note. Dennis Byrne writes in the Chicago Tribune this morning about a factor that isn't often talked about but could have an impact: the perceived meddling of the Chicago political machine in the affairs of the suburbs:

If you're a suburban voter and someone knocks on your door asking you how you plan to vote in the congressional election, you might want to ask for some ID.

Chances are the ID would have a Chicago address. That's because Chicago Democrats are being recruited to work against Republican candidates throughout Cook County and collar counties. [snip]

This may not sound like much of a deal to some Chicagoans who have no use for the suburbs to start with, but suburbanites, such as myself, might not like it because we, after all, live out here in part to be away from the city's lousy schools, higher crime rates and politics as it is practiced in Chicago. Suburbs to Chicago: Butt out. Do we send in squads of suburban Republicans to work Democratic precincts? Haven't you screwed up Chicago and Cook County governments enough already? Do we need lakefront and limousine liberals to tell us how to vote?

It'll be impossible to tell until after the election whether the assistance of Chicago Democrats - particularly to Tammy Duckworth's campaign - is a huge asset or whether it turns out to be a bit of a liability, similar to the way Howard Dean's "storm" of nutters from across the country ended up annoying the hell out of Iowa Democrats back in 2003 and January 2004.

Page Two

For those who have the time and are interested in delving more into individual races, here are some additional columns worth reading:

Michael Collins in the Cincinnati Post yesterday wrote about how Republican Geoff Davis, a former Army Ranger and the curent incumbent of KY4, is handling the Iraq issue. (Get the latest on KY4 here).

Mark Z. Barbarak of the Los Angeles Times profiles incumbent Republican Heather Wilson's battle to hang on in New Mexico's first congressional district. (Get the latest on NM1 here).

In this morning's Newsday, Raymond Keating takes an in-depth look at Peter King (R-NY3).

Kate Riley of the Seattle Times wishes Democrat Darcy Burner was running against Rep. Doc Hastings in WA4 instead of against Dave Reichert in the eigth congressional district.

Connecticut 5: Johnson (R)* vs. Murphy (D)

Good news for Democrats in Connecticut 5. The Hartford Courant has a new poll put showing Republican incumbent Nancy Johnson now trailing Chris Murphy 46% - 42%. From RCP's updated analysis on this race:

Today's Hartford Courant poll from the University of Connecticut shows Democratic challenger Chris Murphy ahead by 4 points, 46% - 42%. The worst news for Johnson from the Courant story is this:
Geographically, the UConn poll also shows Johnson in trouble in one crucial area of the district - the affluent, educated Farmington Valley suburbs of Avon, Canton, Simsbury and Farmington. In her past two elections, Johnson has racked up tallies of 60 percent or more in these towns. But the UConn poll apparently shows that Johnson's support there has been cut roughly in half, with Murphy leading among likely Farmington Valley voters by 52 percent to 36 percent.

This is a potentially ominous sign for Johnson, as she will need closer to half the vote in the affluent Farmington Valley suburbs as opposed to a third if she hopes to weather the storm this year. These affluent, educated voters now moving towards Murphy are Republican-leaning voters who are almost definitely upset with the present course in Iraq and are taking it out on Nancy Johnson.

Furthermore, this poll cuts against some of the other evidence that we have seen from Connecticut and could be part of a little bit of momentum Lamont has picked up the last week. The three Connecticut House districts had appeared to be shifting away from the Democrats since August and Lamont's win, but the increased level of negative news out of Iraq may be giving Murphy a critical push at the end, which is also liable to be felt in CT-2 and CT-4.

This race is now ranked #25 on RCP's House list and is considered a Toss Up.

RCP House Update

In the battle for control of the House of Representatives, RCP currently rates 10 seats as Leans Democrat, 14 seats as Toss Ups and 21 seats in the Lean GOP column. On the Democratic side there are 5 seats in play, all rated Lean Democrat.

Using an 80% victory rate for the Lean races and splitting Toss Ups 50/50 produces an 18-seat pick up for Democrats based on where RCP sees the House races this morning. (This will obviously change as we move seats from Lean to Toss Up and vice versa in the closing days.)

Republican Seats
Leans Democrat: 10 seats x 80% Win Rate = Dems Pick Up 8 Seats
Toss Up: 14 seats x 50% Win Rate = Dems Pick Up 7 Seats
Leans Republican: 21 seats x 20% Win Rate = Dems Pick Up 4.2
Democratic Seats
Leans Democrat: 5 seats X 80% Win Rate = Dems Hold 4, Lose 1

Net Democratic Pick Up = 18 Seats

Given the fluidity and uncertainly in this election and because so many of these races are very close, a break one way or another at the end could have an exaggerated effect on the final result. A hard closing move toward Democrats could see most of the Toss Ups fall their way, as well as a significant number of the Lean GOP seats. On the other hand, a firming of the Republican base coupled with a huge GOP get-out-the-vote effort could see Republican losses considerably below the current conventional wisdom. Based on the top 50 seats, as well as the Likely seats in play, we could see Democratic pick ups as few as 7 and as high as 37.

These low and high range scenarios are certainly not the most likely outcomes, but this is not like the last two elections where you could pin the House results into a 10-seat range with a high degree of certainty.

Penetrating the Media Cocoon

As closely as we're all watching the polls, it's surprising to hear someone such as Newsweek's Howard Fineman saying and writing that, "...an overwhelming majority of the American public wants Rummy out." He repeated that on Chris Matthews's show on Sunday morning.

Mr. Fineman has apparently missed the new Zogby poll released last Thursday. According to that poll, "Asked whether Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld should be fired because of the situation in Iraq, 42% agreed, while 49% said he should not be fired. Another 8% said they were unsure." Which means Mr. Rumsfeld is about 10 points more popular than the president. It makes one wonder what it takes to penetrate the media's cocoon.

More Questionable House Polls

The Orlando Sentinel at the end of last week played up a poll showing Republican incumbent Tom Feeney in a close race with his Democratic challenger Clint Curtis.

The telephone survey, conducted last week by the reputable polling firm Zogby International, shows Feeney ahead of Curtis by 2 percentage points -- 45 percent to 43 percent -- among voters who have made a decision or are leaning toward a specific candidate.

Is Tom Feeney really in trouble? He won with 62% in 2002, ran unopposed in 2004 and says his internal polls show him with "a solid double-digit lead."

We'll find out how accurate this poll was in 9 days, but we suspect Tom Feeney will be back in the next Congress.

October 28, 2006

News & Notes

Tons of news from all around the country as we head into the home stretch: the final debate in the Ohio Senate race took place last night, as did a spar between Bachmann and Wetterling in hotly contested MN-6. In Illinois, more bad news for Rod Blagojevich yesterday as one of his big campaign donors pled guilty to taking kickbacks while sitting on two state boards. There's much, much more, all available on the RCP Politics & Elections page.

We've also launched a new page showing the current state of play in the battle for the House of Representatives. You can still access these seats ranked by order of competitiveness here.

Still on the sujbect of the House, here's a good piece of analysis on Illinois 6 and Illinois 8 from Eric Krol of the Daily Herald:

Roskam and Duckworth don't agree on much, but both campaigns do agree the race is about tied. They're left fighting for the 10 percent to 15 percent of undecided voters, and to ensure their base supporters turn out as strongly as possible.

The advantage on the undecideds would seem to break Duckworth's way -- if you've lived in the 6th District under retiring Rep. Henry Hyde and aren't the proverbial rock-ribbed Republican, odds are fairly decent you're fed up with either the war, the congressional page scandal or the economy's jobless recovery.

But the advantage on the base turnout would seem to break Roskam's way -- he's been a state lawmaker in the district and has a large corps of committed supporters.

He's also got what's left of the once-vaunted DuPage County GOP, assuming its chairman, Kirk Dillard, has forgiven Roskam for costing him the state Senate GOP leader position four years ago. It's worth noting that in the March primary, an unopposed Roskam collected about 50,800 votes -- 18,000 more than the three Democrats mustered collectively. The Duckworth camp doesn't concede the ground troops point, however, claiming the scores of college-age volunteers coming in to help give them a closer-to-even playing field.

If Roskam never pictured himself in a dogfight with a Democrat, McSweeney certainly didn't count on being down to Democratic U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean by double-digits in most polls.

Just two years ago, the 8th Congressional District voted 56 percent for President Bush. McSweeney viewed Bean's upset as more of a referendum on longtime incumbent Phil Crane than any sign of a true Democratic tide. [snip]

McSweeney's hope is to spend his own money on enough negative ads to bring Bean's numbers down and to count on the lower turnout a non-presidential year brings. Bean hasn't hit 50 percent yet, and there's a third-party, anti-war candidate, Bill Scheurer, who might pull votes from her.

Ultimately, what must be the most puzzling to the Republicans is that they cut a deal with the Democrats to draw up the state's congressional map to keep a 10-9 balance of seats. It's starting to look like they didn't draw those lines finely enough to preserve that advantage.

Get the lastest polls, news, and analysis on these races here (IL-6 | IL8).

October 27, 2006

George, Dave & Jeff

This is funny. President Bush went all the way to Iowa today to help Republican Jeff Lamberti in his race to upset Leonard Boswell in IA-3, and this is what he said:

This campaign only ends after the voters have had a chance to speak. No doubt in my mind, with your help, Dave Lamberti will be the next United States congressman.

Oops.

Actually, wiith the amount of campaigning the President does (as well as the other heavyweights on both sides), I'm surprised we don't see this sort of thing happen more often.

Bush's next challenge? Trying to properly pronounce Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs' name on Monday when he heads down to campaign for her in TX-22.

Adwatch '06: Steele's Stem Cell Smackdown

This ad from Republican Michael Steele responding to the Ben Cardin/Michael J. Fox attack on stem cells has been generating a lot of positive buzz today. See what you think:

Here's the original Cardin ad starring Michael J. Fox:

VA-2: Battling For Vets

An interesting local report on the battle for veterans in Virginia 2:

Military voters could help decide the 2nd District congressional race.

According to a Mason-Dixon poll for 13News and its partners at the Virginian Pilot, Rep. Thelma Drake has the edge with active duty voters over Democratic challenger Phil Kellam. While she's preferred by veterans, the gap is much slimmer.

Drake has been reaching out to the military and that work may be paying off. Case in point - a "Veterans for Drake" event this month drew around 60 supporters. That same day, a hastily-arranged "Veterans for Kellam" event attracted three supporters.

See the updated analysis on this race, which remains #33 on RCP's list of the 50 Most Competitive House races this year.

Headlines From the Money Game

From the FEC today:

* Lamont will kick in another $2 million to his campaign. That brings his total investment in both the primary and the general election to a whopping $12.75 million. Ouch.

* The DSCC raised $9 million and spent $22 million between October 1 and October 18. Remaining cash on hand = $9.66 million

* The NRSC raised $3.6 million and spent $6.75 between October 1 and October 18. Remaining cash on hand = $8.9 million

FL-16: Signs Will Go Up

A bit of good news for the GOP in Florida-16:

The First District Court of Appeal ruled that signs can go up saying a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron, if they also say a vote for Mahoney is a vote for Mahoney.

The appellate court both upheld and reversed parts of the lower court which granted an injunction stopping signs from being posted in polling places in counties in the 16th Congressional district.

The order prohibits the Secretary of State from posting its signs, which only mention Negron for Foley. The Judges said those signs "suggest favoritism on behalf of the Republican candidate."

Apparently Democrats will not appeal the ruling.

Florida 16 is currently ranked #3 on RCP's list of most vulnerable House seats. This is unquestionably a boost for the GOP, though it's hard to quantify just how much it may improve their chances of holding the seat.

Two Very Different Ways to Look at This Election

In 2004, there was a lot of talk about whether pollsters were correct to use traditional "likely voter" screens in their samples or whether a less restrictive "registered voter" model would turn out to be more accurate given the massive increases in voter registrations we saw posted all over the country. There's not much discussion of the subject at all this cycle, perhaps due to the fact that it's a midterm and not a presidential year, but it comes to mind because of the conflicting signals in this election and trying to get at just who is going to vote Nov. 7.

In some ways there are two very different ways to look at what is going to happen on election day.

1) Republicans are in big trouble. The generic ballot shows a huge lead for Democrats (over 15%) with fewer than 10 days until the election. Republicans in contested races are either trailing or polling in the mid-40's, and given the national mood toward the GOP as seen in the generic ballot, it is reasonable to assume that these races will break for the Democrats. With the close races tipping the Democrats way they are poised for substantial pickups in the House of 25 seats or more and perhaps the six seats needed for a majority in the Senate.

2)The generic ballot is problematic and is over sampling Democrats, pushing the raw numbers higher for the Dems than they should be. Trying to use the generic ballot to predict who will then win x, y and z house races is a jump that can't be made soundly. In 2004 the voter turnout was 60% of eligible voters. In 2002 and 1998 in the two previous midterms it was 40%. What if a significant number of that 15%-20% who aren't going to show up at the polls this year come from soft voters in the middle? These are the exact group of voters that are helping drive the big polling numbers for Democrats. What if they don't show up in these contested races at the same proportion they are representing in many of these polls? Following this line of thinking, it is possible the bulk of the races that the polls now say are close will actually go to the GOP because the pollsters aren't sampling a representative field of who will actually vote in the contested races.

Simplifying things dramatically, the first view is essentially the one taken by Charlie Cook, and it's why he is out forecasting a 20-35 seat pickup for the Dems in the House and a very good shot for them to take the Senate. The second view is the one taken by Karl Rove, which is why he believes the GOP will hold both chambers, losing less than 15 seats in the House and 3-4 in the Senate.

Both of these scenarios are logical, possible, and have empirical data to support their positions. The harder question is determining which reasoning will prove to be more powerful. Right now, when we drill down and look at the individual races to see where each contest is heading the data, at least in the Senate, appears to be trending toward the Rove position. The question is: will this movement in the Senate toward the GOP hold and will the House turn the same way?

Testing Immigration

You might have seen my profile on Peter Roskam yesterday. I spent last Friday on the trail with him, and one of the issues we talked about at some length was immigration. The reason I bring this up is because yesterday Roskam did an event with Rep. Sensenbrenner of Wisconsin, the leader of the "security first" crowd in the House of Representatives, which coincided with President Bush's signing of the anti-illegal immigration fence bill at the White House.

As in many other House races around the country, immigration has been playing a big role in Illinois 6. Roskam and the NRCC have devoted a considerable amount of resources to pounding Tammy Duckworth for supporting "amnesty," and I questioned him on whether immigration was an issue that would really move voters or whether it was - hearkening back to the words of Tamar Jacoby - just "Fool's Gold."

Roskam said that of all the issues he talks about with voters in the sixth congressional district, the subject of illegal immigration generates the most intense reaction. "You can feel it in the room," he said.

I asked Roskam whether he's concerned about a backlash on the issue or for being portrayed as anti-immigrant, pointing out that two years ago Republican Jim Oberweis was rejected by primary voters after he aired an over the top ad on illegal immigration that featured himself flying in a helicopter over Soldier Field .

Roskam pointed out a couple of things. First, he said there is a balance that has to be struck on the issue, both in tone and substance - something the Oberweis ad clearly didn't do. Roskam always starts by pointing out that he's very much in favor of immigration, so long as it's done legally and that the laws of the land are being enforced.

immigrationmarch.gif Second, Roskam said he sees that voters' opinions have changed since the immigration rallies earlier in the year where large numbers of Mexican flags were seen flying alongside, and in some cases above, U.S. flags. He also pointed out that voters in his district got a replay of that scene just a few weeks ago when a pro-amnesty immigration group marched right across the length of the entire sixth district on its way from Chicago to Batavia to protest outside of Speaker Hastert's office.

I would assume the President's signing of the fence bill yesterday might help Republicans a bit on the margin, but Iraq is clearly the dominant national issue this year - perhaps especially so in Illinois 6 given Tammy Duckworth's service and sacrifice there - so here's just no telling how much the issue of illegal immigration will motivate Republicans to go to the polls in eleven days.

Will the Washington Post Push Ehrlich Over the Top in Maryland?

Editorial endorsements don't matter as much as they once did, but Wednesday's surprise backing of Maryland Republican Governor Bob Ehrlich by the liberal-leaning Washington Post could make a difference in a race that is liable to go down to the wire. If the GOP weren't suffering from a 15-point deficit in the Congressional ballot two weeks before Election Day and a Republican president with a sub-40 job approval, Maryland's booming economy probably would have been enough to carry Ehrlich to reelection this year. But there is no question that the anti-GOP mood nationally is hurting Ehrlich in Maryland.

Given the Democratic Party's nearly two-to-one voter registration advantage in the state and the almost daily fight with an overwhelmingly Democratic state legislature not at all used to dealing with a Republican Governor, Ehrlich has known since the day he took office that he would have a very difficult reelection.

Ehrlich's opponent, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley, has led consistently in the polls all year long. But unlike gubernatorial contests in Pennsylvania and Ohio, where Republicans were once optimistic about their chances but now see Democrats leading by 20-point margins, Mayor O'Malley has been unable to break away from Ehrlich. Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, one of the best firms for polling in Maryland, pegs Mr. O'Malley's lead at four points in its latest poll. The latest RCP Average in this race has O'Malley's lead at 7.5%.

After pulling off his 52% to 48% upset in 2002, Gov. Ehrlich has been studiously going around the traditional media outlets in Washington and Baltimore to maintain his support in the 21 of 24 counties that voted for him in 2002. Even though then-Democratic rival Kathleen Kennedy Townsend won 48% of the vote, she carried only Baltimore City and the two D.C. collar counties of Prince Georges and Montgomery.

Also helping Ehrlich is the very energetic Senate campaign being run by his Lt. Gov. Michael Steele against Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin. Steele appears to be tapping into considerable frustration in the black community over the manner in which Cardin was chosen by Democratic power brokers over former NAACP President Kweisi Mfume to replace the retiring Paul Sarbanes.

This brings us back to the Washington Post endorsement. Ehrlich has done a good job of keeping his core conservative base energized statewide and he's positioned to reap some benefit from Steele's campaign. But for Republicans to win statewide in Maryland, they have to win Independent and Democratic votes, and the surprise endorsement by the Post could be a catalyst to give some of those moderate Democrats and Independent voters a reason to stick with Ehrlich.

With the last three GOP gubernatorial candidates in Maryland winning a surprising 49.7% of the vote, this race is likely to be very, very close. It might be so close, in fact, that the Washington Post endorsement could make a difference on Election Day.

VA Sen: Webb's Words

Given that Drudge is currently splashing the details of some bizarre, sexually explicit passages from Jim Webb's books on his site, the first line of this big profile of Webb in today's Washington Post is timely, but probably not helpful: "James Webb will tell you that he is first a writer, with several best-selling novels to his name." Oy.

This race is extremely close right now, and with only eleven days left the story of Webb's past writings is probably going to put him on the defensive and and chew up valuable time as he tries to explain and/or justify his choice of words. The counter charge that it's a "smear" by the Allen campaign probably isn't going to hold much water with the public either, since Webb is being confronted with words written by his own hand.

It'll be interesting to see how the mainstream media handles this story - if they cover it at all - and how the notoriously prickly Webb responds.

October 26, 2006

MD-Sen: Cardin Pulls Out

This item from the Washington Times reporting that Ben Cardin pulled out of an NAACP-sponsored debate tonight doesn't leave a very good impression - especially coming as it does on the heels of the thumping he took from Michael Steele and Kevin Zeese in a debate yesterday.

The report may or may not be accurate in the particulars - Cardin's camp says he never confirmed attending the event and that he'll be debating Steele at the statewide NAACP event on Saturday - but as a political matter it certainly does give off the smell of fear and also provide Michael Steele another the opportunity to make in-roads with African-American community. That's the last thing Cardin needs as the race heads into the home stretch.

PA-4 Update

Melissa Hart's campaign conducted a brief conference call this afternoon with Neil Newhouse, Principal of the Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, to discuss the variance in polling in this race, specifically the recent Susquehanna poll showing Hart leading Democrat Jason Altmire by just four points, 46 - 42, with 11 percent undecided.

Newhouse started by saying he thought all the screens applied in the Susquehanna poll seemed reasonable and basically matched what they use at POS. But when you take a look at the order of the questions, you can spot the problem. The Susquehanna questionnaire (available Download file">here in pdf) stars with a number of routine questions: right track/wrong track, most important problem facings U.S. today, Bush JA, Congress JA, and name ID/favorable/unfavorable ratings and then a reelect question for Hart.

Newhouse said normally, at this point, most pollsters proceed directly to the ballot question. Susquehanna did not. Instead, they asked the following:

Have you seen, read or heard anything either on TV, the radio, in the newspaper or through any other source about the recent resignation by Florida Republican Congressman Mark Foley due to email messages of a sexual nature he sent to teenage males working in the congressional page program?

The people who responded "yes" (which was 94% of the overall sample) were then asked this follow up:

Will what you have seen, read or heard about this issue make you more likely or less likely to vote Republican in the upcoming election for Congress or will it have no impact on your opinion?

Only after bringing up Foley did Susquehanna immediately proceed to ask voters whether they preferred Hart or Altmire. Mystery solved.

Newhouse said he was "astounded" that the firm would bias its sample by placing a Foley question ahead of the ballot question and said that he thought it was remarkable that even with that bias Hart still came out with a four point lead.

Another interesting note from Newhouse which serves to support Jay's speculation earlier this week that movement toward the Democrats in second and third tier seats may be simply a lack of campaign activity on the part of Republican incumbents rather than proof of an impending GOP meltdown.

Here's what I mean. Newhouse said that his polling showed the race in PA-04 tightening down to about a six-point lead in the first part of October. However, in the last ten days Hart went up with a response ad and the NRCC also came in with some negative ads. Guess what happened? According to Newhouse, Altimire's unfavorable rating tripled over the last two weeks, from 28 fav/7 unfav to 32fav/22 unfav and Hart's lead in the race expanded back out to 12 points, stabilizing beyond the margin of error.

Keep in mind, this is the view coming from the Hart campaign and their pollster. Still, the argument that the Susquehanna questionnaire is problematic seems very legitimate, and the other nuggets of information seem to fit with previously explored possibilities.

The Year of the African-American

Some have termed this the "year of the African-American," though as things currently stand only one of the five black politicians standing for higher office is really safely on the path to victory (Democrat Deval Patrick in Massachusetts). Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. and Republican Michael Steele are running slightly behind, but still well withing striking distance of their respective opponents for the Senate. And Republicans Lynn Swann and Ken Blackwell, both of whom came into this election with extremely high hopes, are trailing their opponents badly and most likely headed to defeat in ten days.

Here are some of the biographical spots and videos that each have run to tell their own individual story to voters over the course of the campaigns.

This ad from Michael Steele hit the airwaves just this week:

Though it isn't biographical, Harold Ford, Jr. has a new ad out as well:

This commercial from the Swann campaign is a few weeks old:

Here's the first commercial run by Deval Patrick way back at the beginning of the campaign:

Lastly, here is a four-minute biographical video of Ken Blackwell:

The Senators' Dilemma

Political science is a discipline that sticks its toes in many different pools. We're a little bit country. We're a little bit rock 'n' roll. We're a little bit psychology, a little bit sociology, a little bit history, etc.

We're also a little bit economics. Specifically, many political scientists have undergone a good bit of training in what is known as "rational choice theory." The essential idea behind the theory is that human activities - even activities on a grand scale - can be understood as the product of the interactions of egoistic, goal-oriented "utility maximizers" in a given social setting. In other words - large scale results can be understood as the product of people pursuing interests and goals via purposive activity in the context of some kind of social setting.

So - having gone through more than a bit of this training myself, I interpreted the basic data point of the recent Washington Times story about Republican senators' failure to contribute money in a way quite different from the Times itself. The Times first reports the fact that top Republican senators with large war chests have failed to give money to the NRSC, and then it interprets this as stinginess. The Times writes:

The stinginess alarms some of the Republican Party's top campaign strategists, especially because it is in such stark contrast to the millions of dollars that Democrats have transferred to their candidates in need. (snip) "Time is running out," one senior Republican aide said. "People will not want to look back and wonder what more could have been done. That would be a real shame."

"Stinginess" has two basic meanings - one is a moral meaning and one is not. The Times implies the moral meaning - which, I think, has only a very small role in politics. Republican senators are not being generous. They see that their brethren are in trouble, and they are refusing to help them. They are thinking only of themselves and their own goals.

My question: just how often do we take generosity or selflessness to be key concepts in politics? Politics is not like the ministry, after all! This kind of stinginess is indeed the cornerstone of rational choice analysis of politics - actors are egoistic rational utility maximizers, i.e. they do that which personally benefits them most. Sure - this theory does not capture everything about politics, but it sure does capture a lot.

The other definition of "stingy" is much more interesting. It basically boils down to parsimony, i.e. the act of maximizing goals while minimizing costs in the situation in which you find yourself. Sometimes, depending upon the situation, you end up with a socially inefficient outcome, even though you have acted rationally. Situations like these, because they are obviously inefficient, often induce outside observers to charge the actors with moral mistakes, when in fact the problem was just the nature of the interaction.

I think that is what we have here.

It seems to me that this is one of those scenarios, which are broadly defined as collective action problems. They are most frequently modeled by what is known as the "prisoners' dilemma."

In its most basic format, the prisoners' dilemma consists of two people trying to coordinate their activities to provide a good that (a) both can enjoy but that (b) is too expensive for either to provide all alone. Every person has a choice to contribute or not to contribute. If both parties contribute, the group benefit will be greatest. If neither party contributes, the group benefit will be zero. However, if person A contributes and person B does not, person A does worse than if nobody contributes and B does better than if both parties contribute. And vice-versa. The reason is that the whole cost of the good is actually greater than your individual benefit from it. So, for the good to be provided, both sides have to chip in. However, you are best off having the other person provide the good and worst off providing it all by yourself. Accordingly, the equilibrium - i.e. the expected result - in the interaction is that nobody contributes and the good is not provided.

Government typically solves problems like this. For instance, provisions of roads and national defense are instances of solved collective action problems. The government solves the problem by coercion: if you fail to pay your taxes, you will (presumably) be punished. This is also why PBS gives you a tote bag for supporting Sesame Street.

Depending upon the good, the failure to provide it is very often explained in moral terms. For instance, the failure of the West to solve world hunger is often understood as a moral failing. However, the solution to hunger requires the coordination of multiple nations. No nation can feasibly solve it by itself. All parties must coordinate - and so the prisoners' dilemma rears its ugly head - even as third parties accuse the West of moral failings.

The Washington Times slips into this type of moral language in the article. They understand the GOP caucus's failure to fund the NRSC as "stinginess" or lack of generosity. But I think this misses the point. I think what is going on with the GOP Senate caucus is a prisoners' dilemma, and therefore moral language is not really appropriate.

Everybody would be best off if the NRSC had plenty of resources. The benefit to all Republican senators would be a minimization of the chance that the GOP loses the Senate. However - every individual would be best off if all the others provided for this and he/she could "free ride" without paying any costs. Similarly - they would be worst off if all the others "free rided" and he/she supplied all of the necessary money (which would inevitably be illegal, as no senator has enough to fully fund the NRSC). Accordingly, the equilibrium result is precisely what we see - an under-funded NRSC and senators with fat bank accounts. It is a socially inefficient, yet individually rational, outcome.

Why, then, does the DSCC not seem to be suffering from the same problem? There are many possible reasons - but my feeling is that it boils down to a clever chap named Charles Schumer. The outcome of the above interaction is predicated upon (a) the fact that everybody involved has correctly assessed that this is the actual state of play and (b) the absence of side benefits (e.g. the tote bag that PBS gives you for contributing) or punishments (e.g. the big-time trouble in which Blade now finds himself). My sense is that Schumer is very adept at both (a) and (b). He has probably done a good job making sure that people do not recognize that this is a prisoners' dilemma and/or ensured that the "stingy" will be heartily rebuked if the Democrats win a majority.

So, maybe, the fact that Elizabeth Dole has been a relatively poor NRSC chairwoman is again creating problems for the Republicans. Whereas Schumer is quite adept at "herding cats," Dole is not. Accordingly, she has been unable to effectively alter Republican senators' perception of the interaction or their assessment of the costs and benefits of contributing.

Also - the Democratic side features two people running for President - Kerry and Clinton. Both of them have interests independent of the majority to contribute. It is in their interests to seem like team players - and so the act of contribution carries a benefit. I would thus note with interest that Mitch McConnell - who intends to run for Majority Leader - is the most "generous" of Republican senators. He, like Kerry and Clinton, derive a personal benefit from the mere act of giving. And so, according to the Times, has given more than any Republican senator.

Hewitt vs. Sullivan

Hugh Hewitt has an entertaining interview with Andrew Sullivan on his new book The Conservative Soul. You can listen to the podcast here.

Chris Matthews: Only Republicans Run Negative Ads

Yesterday Chris Matthews was working himself up into a Keith Olbermann like lather over the Republican ad in Tennessee on Harold Ford attending a Playboy party:

it's not that the Democrats don't know how to make these ads, they just feel they have gotten above it, that this is really bad stuff. It's like they are like Michael Corleone. They have gotten out of the business of running dirty ads. The Republicans are still in that business. They say, look, I have left that behind. That's the Democrat's attitude. We're not going to run that kind of campaign.

"They have gotten out of the business of running dirty ads." What planet is this guy on? Can he really be so blatantly partisan and holier than thou to honestly think Democrats don't go negative? Gimme a break. Matthews must really think the public is stupid.

Does he not remember the NAACP in 2000 running ads with a pickup truck dragging a chain while James Byrd's daughter accused George Bush of lynching her father again?

Or in Maryland, what about the Oreos thrown at African-American Republican Michael Steele when he was running for Lt. Gov., and who just last week in the middle of his campaign for Senate had the #2 Democrat in the House of Representatives refer to him as "slavishly" serving his GOP masters?

Chris Matthews is full of it, neither party has a monopoly on virtue in this country, and he knows it.

The Ford ad was a hard hitting ad that is fair game in today's political environment. The left is trying to counterattack with their standard "Republicans are racist" charge to energize black voters and bully moderates and independents into thinking Republicans are mean people - and that's what Chris Matthews holier than thou schickt is all about.

The Money Game

Here are a few of the noticeable headlines today at FEC info:

**Charles Taylor (NC-11) wrote himself a check for $580,000.

** Yesterday AFSCME dumped $302,430 opposing Peter Roskam (IL-06); $255,780 opposing Dave Reichert (WA-08); $162,604 opposing Nancy Johnson (CT-05).

** MoveOn.org reported raising $2.4 million in the first two weeks of October and doled out earmarked contributions to federal candidates including: $176,045 to Arcuri for Congress (NY-24); $160,274 to Carney for Congress (PA-10); $206,162 to Christine Jennings for Congress (FL-13); $190,174 to Lois Murphy for Congress (PA-06); $161,187 to Zack Space for Congress (OH-18); and $187,418 to Cranley for Congress (OH-01); among others

*** Emily's List spent $1.4 million between 10/1 and 10/18.

*** At the moment the only IE's for today are from the RNC, which dropped $176K on media and phones opposing Democrat Claire McCaskill in Missouri.

NM-1: Debating Wilson's Chances of Survival

The folks in New Mexico's 1st Congressional District finally got a chance to see Republican Heather Wilson and Democrat Patricia Madrid on stage together last night. When asked if she won, Wilson told the Santa Fe New Mexican, "I don't think there's any question about that."

It looks like that's not just spin, because University of New Mexico political science professor Christine Sierra watched the debate and agreed that Wilson got the better of it, though she didn't land any knock out blows:

"If anybody got a bump up, it would have been Wilson, because she looked smoother and more comfortable in front of the camera," said University of New Mexico political science professor Christine Sierra.

But, that doesn't mean Madrid fared poorly, Sierra said.

"I think Patsy Madrid's major challenge was to not make any mistakes, given the momentum, and I don't think she made any major mistakes."

But this exchange from the story in the Albuquerque Tribune seems like it might be have been a pretty good hit for Wilson:

On lobbyists in Washington: The candidates were asked about the ethics of accepting campaign contributions from lobbyists.

Madrid: "You have to be careful about taking large sums of money from lobbyists, but even if you do, it is only to give them access, to let you know about what their concerns are. Certainly it's not to have you vote or rule in any certain way or to obligate you in any way."

Wilson seized on Madrid's statement. "I can't believe what I just heard. Mrs. Madrid accepted $125,000 from a casino owner in southern New Mexico who had business pending in her office. $125,000. And then she just said, `That's only to give them access.' Only to give them access. No one buys access in my office. . . . Any New Mexican that wants to talk to me, it's not conditional to paying at the door."

And another:

One of Wilson's questions to Madrid: Can you cite something in your long career in public service that reassure New Mexicans you will prevent a tax increase?

Madrid: "Your president and you have voted for tax relief for the top 1 percent of taxpayers in this country, costing us an immeasurable amount of money. If I go to Congress, I will vote to repeal that tax relief. I do support tax relief for the middle class, even the upper middle class."

Madrid asked Wilson whether she thought Bush was a good president and if so, why. Wilson didn't answer the question directly and went on to cite issues where she disagrees with the president.

As you might expect, the Tribune says the debate didn't change a lot of minds among the people they interviewed. Wilson is currently the 7th most vulnerable incumbent on the RCP Ranking of the 50 Most Competitive House seats this year, and #14 overall. After leading for the first nine months of the race, Wilson has fallen behind Madrid in all of the most recent polls.

Keep an eye on this race. It's a crucial contest for the GOP and probably will serve as a good indicator of how Republicans are faring as the election comes to a close.

Connecticut 2: Simmons (R)* vs. Courtney (D)

Here is one of the reasons Rep. Rob Simmons is doing well in Connecticut 2.

The latest poll from the University of Connecticut has Simmons ahead 46% - 44%. This race is currently ranked #22 on RCP's list of seats liable to switch parties.

Democrats are perplexed why the national generic movement away from the GOP hasn't appeared to help their challengers in Connecticut going up against the embattled trio of Rob Simmons, Nancy Johnson and Chris Shays. DCCC head Rahm Emanuel was in the Connecticut 2 yesterday to give Courtney a boost.

In our October 20th analysis we felt Simmons retained the advantage in the home stretch, and we still do. Interestingly Michael Barone, who has an encyclopedic knowledge of American congressional races, in his recent ranking of House seats, rated Simmons in the "Sure Republican" category.

October 25, 2006

Adwatch '06: Is the RNC Ad Against Ford Racist?

Liberals are hot under the collar about this ad by the RNC being run against Harold Ford in Tennessee:

Josh Marshall called it the "Ford's an Uppity Negro' spot." Really?

In a previous post Marshall also said the entire ad was constructed to deliver the message to voters that "Harold does white chicks":

What policy issue is she [the white woman] talking about? It's not connected to anything. It's just, 'I'm a loose white woman. I hooked up with Harold at the Playboy mansion. And I can't wait for him to do me again.'

Actually, Josh contradicts himself by pointing out that the woman's appearance in the ad is 'connected' to something: Ford's attendance (alleged at the time, finally confirmed by him the other day) at a 2005 Superbowl party hosted by Playboy.

Initially, I thought the ad would have been just as effective with an African-American woman saying she met Ford at the Playboy party, but it probably wouldn't have - but only because the "ditsy blond bimbo" is a more accurate caricature of what we all picture when we think "Playboy bunny."

The Playboy party - which I personally think is a silly issue that Ford could have easily defused long ago - has been part of this campaign because it is about values. It's never had anything to do with race. And yet now all of the sudden its "racism" based on the color of a Playboy bunny look alike?

I don't buy it. This whole thing seems to me to be a desperate effort by the left to gin up cries of "racism" in hopes of saving a shot at a Senate seat that looks, at least at the moment, to be slipping through their fingers.

Generics vs. Individual Contests

Karl Rove on "All Things Considered" yesterday speaking with NPR's Robert Siegel on the elections in less than two weeks:

Rove: I see several things; first, unlike the general public, I'm allowed to see the polls on the individual races and after all this does come down to individual contests between individual candidates. Second of all, I see the individual spending reports and contribution reports. For example at the end of August in 30 of the most competitive races in the country, the house races, the Republicans had 33 million cash on hand and Democrats had just over 14 million.

Siegel: We are in the home stretch though and many would consider you on the optimistic end of realism about.

Rove: Not that you would exhibit a bias, you just making a comment.

Siegel: I'm looking at all the same polls that you are looking at.

Rove: No, you are not. I'm looking at 68 polls a week for candidates for the U.S. House and U.S. Senate, and Governor and you may be looking at 4-5 public polls a week that talk attitudes nationally........I'm looking at all of these Robert and adding them up. I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I'm entitled to THE math.

Rove crystallizes the disconnect going with the analysis in this election. The press and pundits appear to be overly obsessed with the generic national polls that show big Democratic leads but when you start to break down the individual races that Democrats have to win to get control of each chamber it is far from a sure thing that the Democrats will capture either house. The Senate has improved noticeably for Republicans these last few days, the current RCP Senate Averages now project only a 4 seat pick up for the Democrats, two short of what they need for control.

Looking at the House, RCP currently has 9 seats ranked as leaning Democrat and 15 races ranked as toss ups, which provides a fairly broad range of 9-24 seats for the Democrats - if you were to allocate toss ups all one way. Continuing with a crude estimate if you split toss ups down the middle Dems would take the House barely with a 16-17 seat Dem pick up, with a 1/3rd-2/3rd kind of split giving the Dems a gain in the 14 - 19 range.

For a number of reasons, the confidence level is considerably higher in the Senate and I would use the Senate playing field as a barometer with the House ranges. With the Senate in the 4-5 seat range for Democrats, I feel pretty good about a 14-19 range in the House. If the Senate shifts up to 5-6 seats I would bump the House range into the high teens/low twenties and it is when the Senate gets to the 6-7 seat pickup area for Democrats where I think you start to get the real possibility of Democratic gains over 25 in the House.

For those who think Democratic control of Congress is a lock, another concern is that all these scenarios are with the national generic ballot currently showing a 15+ point deficit for the GOP -- a deficit that is far more likely to shrink between now and election day, rather than grow.

The Scariest of Them All

Another thought to frighten Republicans this year: if Democrats take control Baghdad Jim McDermott will be Charlie Rangel's right hand man on the House Ways and Means Committee, responsible for crafting U.S. tax policy. The 10-term Congressman from Washington's 7th District will also become Chairman of the Subcommitte on Human Resources.

How Bad Will Iraq Hurt the GOP?

I think one of the reasons many in the press, political analysts included, buy into the theory Republicans will get wiped out this year is they look at the deteriorating situation in Iraq and think: "How can the Republicans not get killed?" And there is no question that working against the GOP big time is the reality that Iraq is demonstrably worse than in was in 2004. And by worse, I mean the odds for U.S. success was considerably better in 2004 than it is today. But the Beltway culture and attitude toward the war isn't the same as the rest of the country and in 2004 that mindset helped create the conventional wisdom that President Bush was going to lose to John Kerry. I suspect the same attitude toward the war today facilitates the ease with which reporters and Washington analysts jack up projections of huge Democratic gains.

But because the media has been so negative on Iraq for years now I don't know that the Democrats, from a political standpoint these last few weeks, are reaping all the rewards they might otherwise have received. Take the New York Times for example. On a scale of 1 -10, with 10 being that Iraq is an utter disaster, they have been reporting Iraq as an 8 or a 9 almost from the beginning.

So now when the status in Iraq has objectively worsened, where do they go to amp their coverage? I'm sure "Pinch" Sulzberger, in true Spinal Tap spirit, is desperately looking for the knob that takes the negativity up to eleven, but they are just about maxed out. In other words, from a political standpoint the qualitative erosion of the situation in Iraq over the last 2-3 months may not be yielding the corresponding equal public relations effect one might expect.

And so in the month before an election when the public sees endless stories about the disaster in Iraq, many just roll their eyes. Again, this is not an argument that Iraq is not hurting Republicans, it clearly is. My point is it may not be hurting the GOP as much as DC-media types think it should, or will.

The other reason Iraq perhaps isn't killing Republicans as much as it could is because Democrats are nowhere to be seen on the issue. Iraq is unquestionably the biggest issue facing the country and the Democrats, to put it nicely, have punted. And they punted because there was no way for them to reconcile the netroots/Lamont faction of the party with more common-sense leaders like Joe Biden or Joe Lieberman. Heck, the netroots side kicked Joe Lieberman out of the party in August.

In September, the White House had found a way to frame the war debate around wiretapping and extracting information from terrorists and it was working to help Republicans, but the Foley scandal blew that carefully orchestrated plan right out of the water. With only two weeks left, it remains unclear how the final news cycle will play out. There is numbness among the public to the situation in Iraq, people know in their gut that it is not going well and ultimately President Bush and Congress have to answer for that, but they are far from sure that Nancy Pelosi is the right answer. Iraq helps the Democrats, but how much, we will find out on Election Day.

AZ-1: Reports of Renzi Investigation

Yesterday, just two weeks before the election, Rick Renzi in AZ-1 hired a lawyer after reports surfaced that the feds are looking into his involvement in a land swap deal from a couple of years ago. Renzi's new lawyer, former Arizona Attorney General Grant Woods, told the Arizona Republic he's been unable to confirm any investigation so far and that neither Renzi nor any of the folks in his "circle" have been contacted by the feds.

Renzi is currently #42 on RCP's list of the 50 most competitive House races in the country. He may be headed higher, depending on how this plays out.

A Needle in the Media Haystack

This morning I was shocked to stumble across the rarest of things: a negative press clip of Barack Obama. Actually, it's not even that bad, but it is markedly different from the universal gushings we've seen recently. Jon Friedman of Marketwatch writes:

Barack Obama was the man of the moment at this week's American Magazine Conference in the desert -- but he failed to dazzle his audience.

He showed a conference of magazine editors and publishers that he can withstand the heat of the national spotlight. He has clear ideas about where the Bush administration has gone wrong in Iraq, its energy policy and the budget. But he failed to wow the crowd. At no point during the time he spoke to the throng did he leave any of us with a moment we'll remember, other than the spectacle of seeing up close someone famous. He has become a celebrity as an appealing Senator, author of the much-discussed new book "The Audacity of Hope" and a likely presidential candidate.

He was almost equal parts solid and stolid.

Al Gore Thinks About 2008

Barack Obama says he'll "consider" running for president and the national media swoons. Granted, he said that on Meet the Press, which is not quite the same thing as telling a college student who asks you to run for president that you'll "give it some thought." But, according to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, that's what someone claimed Al Gore said yesterday:

Gore, the 2000 Democratic presidential nominee, has returned to prominence with his crusade to address global warming and climate change.

"I'm a recovering politician. I'm on about Step Nine," he joked to the audience.

As he was leaving the auditorium, however, Gore was confronted by Cindra Zugel of Mukilteo, wearing a campaign button that said, "Al Gore for President in 2008."

She told him he has a responsibility to run for president, to change U.S. energy and environmental policy. "He said, 'We'll give it some thought,' " said Zugel, who considers Gore "the only choice" for 2008.

Democrats have been devoid of a "savior" over the last few years, and suddenly they have two. Maybe they should join forces. Gore-Obama in '08, anyone? I can hear reporters and editorial boards across the country swooning over the thought.

PA 04 Poll Results

The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review just released some polling data on PA 04 -- a suburban Pittsburgh district that features incumbent Republican Melissa Hart and Democratic challenger Jason Altmire. The results were somewhat surprising, giving Hart only a 4% lead, with 11% undecided.

This week I hypothesized that one reason that second- and third-tier districts show soft GOP leads was because GOP candidates had yet to unload their expansive war chests. Accordingly, voters were still "floating" with the national news media and their assessment of the mood. This district would be an archetypical example if this hypothesis is true. Hart, as of 10/1, had more than $1.1 million in the bank, compared to Altmire's $275 K. By that date, she had only spent $763 K. According to the theory I offered: when she unloads that war chest, these numbers will move in her direction.

The internals of the poll are consistent with this "floating" hypothesis. The last paragraph is the the tip-off:

For Altmire, an equal number of those surveyed -- 26 percent -- were aware of his name with a favorable impression as were those who had not heard of him. Thirty-one percent knew his name but had no opinion of him, while 18 percent were aware and felt unfavorably toward him.

It seems that Altmire's support does not seem to reflect genuine pro-Altmire sentiment, but rather a general political mood . Hart can, and will, spend $2 million in all to define both him and herself -- setting herself apart from what the district is upset about, and casting Altmire as an unacceptable alternative to what frustrates the voters. And Altmire lacks the cash to respond.

This poll will probably feed the "a wave is a'comin'" storyline -- but this hypothesis is clearly underdetermined. These results are entirely consistent with what I theorized earlier this week -- probably more so than the "wave" hypothesis, given Altmire's poor name ID numbers.

If we see a Hart lead of 4% of less after she has spent her money, then the GOP should worry about this district.

Nevertheless -- this poll is a sign that the GOP is going to have to spend money to defend its "outer-rim" districts: PA 04, WY AL, MN 01, etc. I think money will save all of them, but money is what is needed. That is the price they must pay for their unpopularity.

Footnote: I am not a pollster, but it struck me as very peculiar that the Trib would commission a poll for last weekend in Pittsburgh. On Saturday, Pitt played Rutgers at Heinz Field. On Sunday, the Steelers played the Falcons. How many men do you think answered the phone over the weekend? If I was back in my dear hometown district (or, should I say, "hometahn district"), I know that I would have hung up right quick (a head counter for the local Alderman actually showed up at my door during the 2nd Quarter of the Steelers game -- and I don't think I have ever been so quick to tell somebody "No thank you!"). I can't help but wonder: is this sample representative of the 4th? I doubt that it is. The 4th was watching Panther and Steeler football (a bad, bad, bad weekend, I must say...). Does that help one candidate or another? My sense is that it helps Altmire. Most of the voting population of the 4th is the northern suburbs in Allegheny and Butler Counties -- and football fans there tend to be white men, i.e. anti-tax Republican voters.

October 24, 2006

Stem Cell Ad War in Missouri

You've probably heard about the Michael J. Fox ad on stem cells that aired on behalf of the McCaskill campaign during the World Series the other night. Here it is:

And here's the response ad:

Ford's Straight Answer

Harold Ford, Jr. tries to stop the bleeding over the question Playboy party with a very straight answer - maybe a little too straight, in fact.

Lunch with Rumsfeld and Pace

Yesterday, along with four other journalists, I lunched with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Gen. Peter Pace, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. We had a wide-ranging discussion on North Korea, Iraq, and the reports that there was a coming change in administration policy toward Iraq. Mr. Rumsfeld said that the President had asked him to stay out of politics in this election, and he was determined to do just that. Several of us tried to nudge or kid him into it, and the most we could get was a "nice try" or two.

Rumsfeld explained that the conference the president held last weekend with him and our top generals didn't signal a major shift on Iraq. This conference wasn't something out of the ordinary and in the two or three others held before the president had used this session to talk through ideas with his top advisors. As to the idea that the Congressionally-created Baker-Hamilton "Iraq Study Group" might recommend major policy shifts, Rumsfeld demurred. He said that outside groups such as that one can often be helpful by bringing new viewpoints to the analysis. The Baker group - which interfaces mostly with National Security Advisor Steven Hadley -- has met with Rumsfeld at the White House and will be coming to the Pentagon for more discussions in mid-November.

I asked if the Baker group was trying to answer the right questions. Are we talking about Iraq without talking about a regional solution? Rumsfeld said he wasn't familiar with the mandate Congress had given the Baker group. When I pressed him that too many people want to talk about Iraq without placing it in context he said, "I think it's awfully hard - I know some people would like to do it - but it's awfully hard to look at Iraq and not look at it in the context of the world we live in, and the area that it is in, and the activities of Iran and Syria and the broader question of the Shia-Sunni interaction that's taking place." The problems of the Middle East are, inferentially, regional and cannot be solved within the borders of any single nation.

Asked if he was planning to resign after the elections, Rumsfeld said that if he were, he'd have spoken to the president about it and that no such discussion had taken place.

We talked about North Korea and the ability of the world to achieve its nuclear disarmament. Mr. Rumsfeld said that the problem had been the lack of cohesion among the international community and that the president's approach intended to create that cohesion and thus the leverage to accomplish the necessary solution. Rumsfeld was quick to explain that the problem of nuclear North Korea was much different than the problem posed by Iran. He gave us copies of what is now his favorite picture. It's a night time satellite photo of the Korean peninsula taken (apparently repeatedly or in some time-lapse format) from February 1 - March 31, 2006. It shows nearly half of South Korea bathed in artificial light, and all of North Korea - except the capital, Pyongyang - utterly dark. "If you think of North Korea, it is very different from Iran. There's people who are starving. They have people who are going in the military who are under five feet and less than one hundred pounds. There's a lack of nutrition in the country." The sort of deterrence that worked before may work against North Korea, though Rumsfeld said the principal danger from North Korea is proliferation: "He'll sell anything."

Much of the discussion centered around the ability of America to fight a long war. Both Rumsfeld and Pace used the example of the Cold War to illustrate their conviction that America does and will continue to have the ability to stay in the war against terrorists until it's done. Rumsfeld elaborated.

He said that Americans were raised - "socialized" was the word he used - to believe that our military can win any war by going out and defeating a nation or an army. But times have changed. He said of Iraq, "There's no way the military can lose. There's also no way the military can win all alone. That isn't the nature of it...There's no major army, navy, air force to go and attack and destroy." In wars like this, there will be no "clean wins."

How long will it take? How will the American people support a war such as this? Rumsfeld said, "We have to be smart enough and wise enough as we were in the Cold War to recognize the danger, and to recognize that it takes perseverance."

Gen. Pace added, "We're back to the common understanding of the threat. The American people are willing to withstand a long-term challenge as exemplified by the Cold War and the Soviet Union...The good news is that since 9-11 we haven't been attacked here at home. What that means is that some Americans don't yet grasp fully the very real nature of this threat to the survival of the nation."

The Battle for the Senate

In our opinion, Brad Coker at Mason-Dixon continues to do the best state polling. Today he has released a basket of eight Senate polls for MSNBC in the competitive Senate races that will determine control of that chamber (Maryland is the only race which might be competitive where he did not poll).

I spoke with Coker this morning, and he breaks these races down into three distinct groups. The first group is Pennsylvania, Ohio and Rhode Island, which he describes "as slipping away from the Republicans." RCP has all thee of these races as "Leans Democrat," and right now these look like three pretty firm pick ups for the Democrats.

The next group is Montana, New Jersey and Missouri - all races where Mason-Dixon shows the Democrat ahead by three points. Coker describes these three as "leaning Democratic" and, interestingly, he ranks New Jersey as the most likely state Republicans could get out of this group, followed by Montana, and then Missouri. Both New Jersey and Missouri have been ranked Toss Ups for some time by RCP, and today on the back of the Mason-Dixon poll we are moving Montana to a Toss Up, one week after downgrading Burns from the #2 most vulnerable incumbent to #4.

I don't know that I agree with Coker's order of vulnerability in these three, but I don't take it as good news for the GOP that he ranks the seat in Missouri as the least likely of the bunch for the GOP to win. Since Mason-Dixon's last survey in these three states, Missouri has moved 3 points toward the Democrats; Montana has moved 4 points toward the GOP, and New Jersey in unchanged. I suspect Republicans will win one of these three states barring a complete GOP meltdown. Coker seems to think from where things stand today the odds favor the Democrats taking all three.

Finally, we have the two seats in Virginia and Tennessee. Coker sees the Republicans almost having the same edge here as the Democrats have in the last group (MT, MO, NJ). Mason-Dixon's work has Bob Corker ahead in Tennesse by 2 points and George Allen ahead in Virginia by 4. Coker feels that if Republicans were to lose either one of these races he sees little chance they could win in Montana, New Jersey and Missouri - which effectively means they would lose the Senate. As a corollary, if the GOP could win one of the MT, MO, NJ group, Coker sees very little chance they would lose in Virginia or Tennessee. I tend to agree with that characterization, though the ethical troubles of Menendez in New Jersey makes that race a bit of an independent situation.

At the end of the day, Coker sees the evidence today pointing to a 50-50 tie with Republicans retaining control. I agree that the GOP maintains an edge in Virginia and Tennessee and thus is likely to retain control, but as I said earlier, I suspect Republicans will pull out one of three in Missouri, Montana and New Jersey to keep their losses to four and a 51-49 edge in the Senate. This also happens to be where the current InTrade markets peg the Senate playing field as well.

When It Rains, It Pours

Harold Ford, Jr. is on a bit of a streak at the moment, and it's not the favorable kind. His press-conference crashing stunt last week seems to have backfired. He's also now involved in a war of words with Steve Cohen, the Democrat running to replace him in TN-9, where Ford, Jr.'s brother lost out in the primary but is running as an Independent. And there's the new Mason-Dixon poll I mentioned earlier showing that Bob Corker has edged back into the lead against Ford. But there's more.

In the Tennessean today, questions about Ford's presence at a Playboy party at the 2005 Superbowl continue to linger, in part because the Ford campaign has done a truly miserable job of dealing with the issue.

And yesterday Bob Corker was on the trail with Rudy Giuliani pounding Ford over his refusal to vote in favor of a non-binding resolution in the House condemning President Clinton's pardon of 16 members of the Puerto Rican terrorist organization FALN. Instead of voting for or against the resolution, Ford voted "present." The resolution passed in the House by a vote of 311 to 41 with 72 present. A similar measure passed the Senate by a vote of 95-2.

The Knoxville News-Sentinel reports:

According to Michael Powell, Ford's senior adviser, Ford said publicly at the time that he would not have pardoned the individuals, but "the measure was brought to the floor in a partisan attempt to embarrass the president. It was a nonbinding resolution."

Maybe so, but this is the kind of issue that makes a fairly cut-and-dried impression on voters, and it's probably a vote that Ford wishes he could have back.

Mason-Dixon

Here's the score from the new batch of Mason-Dixon Senate polls: Republican incumbents Santorum, DeWine, Chafee, Burns, and Talent currently trail. There's your five seat pick up for an evenly divided Senate. Corker has moved slightly back ahead in Tennessee, and Allen is holding a small but steady lead in Virginia.

On the Dem side, Cantwell has extended her lead in Washington and Menendez is maintaining a slight edge in New Jersey, though he's stuck around 45% with eleven percent undecided.

It's possible Dems could tip either Tennessee or Virginia (or both), and end up taking control of the Senate. On the other hand, with Allen stabilized and Harold Ford, Jr. undergoing a bit of a late stage meltdown, it seems to me a more likely possibility that Republicans hold TN, VA and Talent squeaks by in Missouri, leaving the GOP with a razor-thin majority.

And there's also still a chance that Conrad Burns pulls out his race in Montana or Kean, Jr. scores an upset in New Jersey, which could reduce GOP losses to just three seats.

Perception Can Become Reality

One of the Democratic strategies this cycle is to flood the zone with partisan and suspect polls showing as many House races as possible in play to piggy back on the national generic polls that show legitimately bad news for Republicans. A perfect example of this is in the Las Vegas Review-Journal today which runs with the headline:

Poll: Heller, Derby Tied in House Race. Democrat Erases Republican's Nine-Point Lead

CARSON CITY -- Democrat Jill Derby and Republican Dean Heller are tied in the race for the 2nd Congressional District seat, according to a poll by the Mellman Group of Washington, D.C.

Each drew 40 percent of the votes in a telephone poll last week of 400 voters in the district. Minor party candidates received 5 percent and 15 percent were undecided.

In Mellman's last poll, conducted in early September, Heller led Derby 44 percent to 35 percent.

It is not until you get down to the 8th paragraph when the reader is told that the Democrat Derby's campaign paid for the poll.

This is a calculated tactic on the part of the Democrats that they have been using very effectively as other reporters, pundits and the blogosphere pickup on the headline to play up the story that more and more Republican districts continue to be thrown into play. This is all designed to build up the impression that the bottom is totally falling out for the GOP. Perception can become reality if the GOP is not careful and Republicans have been behind the eight-ball this entire cycle in managing the public relations campaign.

Maybe Nevada's 2nd congressional seat is going to go to the Democrats this year, but this is a district where Al Gore managed a whopping 37% of the vote in 2000 and John Kerry pulled down 41% in 2004. All the independent polls post-Labor Day show the Republican Heller ahead. We don't view a poll paid for by the underdog candidate, showing a tie, as evidence that a race is necessarily in play, and until we see some non-partisan data that NV-2 is really in play we will continue to rate this as a lean Republican contest.

For the Record

Earlier I wrote "it's hard to see how Barack Obama could defeat a candidate with the experience, credentials, and mainstream appeal of John McCain or Rudy Giuliani." A reader challenges Rudy's credentials:

Pray tell us the experience and credentials of Giuliani, who was elected to one office in his career, Mayor of New York City.

What other credentials does he have besides a great performance on 9/11? Does he even know where Iraq is? Do you know what "experience" is?

I doubt it now.

Please. For the record, there are 8 million people in New York City. To put it in perspective, that would make the Big Apple the eleventh largest State in the Union on a population basis. And you could argue that a place as dense, diverse, and complicated to run as New York City makes it a much more difficult job than, say, being Govenor of Arkansas.

Furthermore, Rudy's eight year record of achievement in New York City is nothing short of miraculous. Ask the people who live there. He reduced crime, lowered taxes and bascially breathed new life into a city that was in decay and dying.

That's a heck of a lot more impressive to most people than people who sit in an exclusive club in Washington D.C. and show up to run for President with a list of votes that may or may indicate any real level of skill, leadership or achievement.

October 23, 2006

Quote of the Day II

"If the Democrats win, it will be a Forrest Gump victory - essentially things swirled around them over which they had very little control and they ended up scoring touchdowns, designing happy signs, and making money on shrimp." - Pollster John Zogby

More Obama

Richard Baehr of the American Thinker weighs in with a nice piece on Obama from a conservative point of view.

If you want a more predictable, gushing liberal point of view, read Joel Connelly in the Seattle PI.

Obama Answers - Sort Of

On Friday I wondered how Barack Obama would respond when Tim Russert confronted this weekend him with the '08 question. Now we know:

"Given the responses that I've been getting over the last several months, I have thought about the possibility, but I have not thought about it with the seriousness and depth that I think is required," Obama said on NBC's "Meet the Press." "After November 7th, I'll sit down and consider it, and if at some point, I change my mind, I will make a public announcement and everybody will be able to go at me."

And then there was this interesting exchange on Obama during the round table discussion at the end of the show:

MR. RUSSERT: David Broder, before we go, you just heard Senator Barack Obama, who nine months ago said, "I will not seek the presidency or vice presidency." And today, he rather candidly said, "Well, that's what I believed then and I may be changing my mind." What's your take on that?

MR. BRODER: He's under a lot of pressure and is riding a wave of his own in terms of publicity, to jump in. It would be a big gamble for him because his potential is so huge and he is, at this point, pretty green in terms of experience. Lacks any executive experience. Never has had to sit in a job where he was the single decision maker, as a president is. But he is an enormously attractive candidate and I thought he handled it--you very well this morning.

MR. NOVAK: Certainly, Tim, I, I took that as an announcement of possible candidacy that was, that was making news on, on MEET THE PRESS. I think he's a very attractive personality, but I think the fact that everybody's so excited about him, and everybody's writing about him, indicates there's a lot of vote--of Democratic resistance to Hillary Clinton and the whole field that we have. Because I have seen the candidates who have really been inspirational candidates with their rhetoric: John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton. And talk about a loser from Illinois, Adlai Stevenson. I don't see this in a Barack Obama; I don't see much humor, I don't see much irony. I'm not yet convinced that that--this is the answer to, to a Democratic victory.

MR. HARWOOD: Tim...

MR. RUSSERT: Voters seem more...

MR. HARWOOD: ...I talked to a former top aide to Bill Clinton last night who said Barack Obama will run in 2008, Hillary Clinton will not. So we'll see what happens there.

MR. RUSSERT: Hillary Clinton will not?

MR. HARWOOD: That was his prediction.

I don't know if I believe the part about Hillary taking a pass on '08, but I'm starting to buy into the hype that Obama might run.

If he doesn't, Obama is staring at the potential likelihood of another 10 years in the Senate, at which point he won't have the cache of being a hot new commodity and he'll also have built up a substantial voting record - and probably a very liberal one at that.

Obama is only 45 years old, so he does have the flexibility to take a pass and come back in '12 or '16. On the other hand, JFK was elected at 43, and Bill Clinton took office at 46.

But the real question isn't age, it's whether Obama is ideologically well-suited for the current moment in history. JFK had legitimate credentials as an anti-communist Cold Warrior which were well-suited to his time, and Bill Clinton also had the political chops to sell himself effectively as a centrist "new Democrat" during a time of peace and prosperity.

It seems to me there are two relevant questions for Obama: After eight years of George W. Bush, will the country be thirsting for a "less divisive" and/or "less partisan" figure in 2008 and can Barack Obama effectively sell himself as that candidate? And in a post 9/11 world will the country be willing to vote for someone who has neither military service nor much in the way of national security experience?

One final factor, too, is looking across to the matchups on the other side. It's hard to see how Barack Obama could defeat a candidate with the experience, credentials, and mainstream appeal of John McCain or Rudy Giuliani - assuming either of those men could make it out of the Republican primary.

Now that I've worked my way through the various questions facing Barack Obama and '08, I've changed my mind. I think the hype is only hype.

Don't Make Nice

Paul Krugman delivers a special treat for the nutroots today, arguing that if the Dems take power they should be as vicious as they can be or, put in a more nutroot-friendly formulation, equally as vicious as he believes Republicans are:

Now that the Democrats are strongly favored to capture at least one house of Congress, they're getting a lot of unsolicited advice, with many people urging them to walk and talk softly if they win.

I hope the Democrats don't follow this advice -- because it's bad for their party and, more important, bad for the country. In the long run, it's even bad for the cause of bipartisanship.

There are those who say that a confrontational stance will backfire politically on the Democrats. These are by and large the same people who told Democrats that attacking the Bush administration over Iraq would backfire in the midterm elections. Enough said.

I especially liked this part:

There are those who believe that the partisan gap can be bridged if the Democrats nominate an attractive presidential candidate who speaks in uplifting generalities. But they must have been living under a rock these past 15 or so years. Whoever the Democrats nominate will feel the full force of the Republican slime machine. And it doesn't matter if conservatives have nice things to say about a Democrat now. Once the campaign gets serious, they'll suddenly question his or her patriotism and discover previously unmentioned but grievous character flaws.

This is truly delusional. If you go back, as Krugman suggests, and look at the Presidential election for the past 15 or so years, what you'll find is that regardless of the political noise surrounding the election, the candidate who ran the better race won.

I'm sure Krugman thinks that Michael Dukakis got "slimed" by Lee Atwater and Willie Horton in 1988, but the reality is that Dukakis was a candidate with serious vulnerabilites, many of which were compounded during the campaign by his own doing.

Four years later Bill Clinton prevailed over a rather inept reelection campaign by George H.W. Bush (albeit with the help a third party candidate). He also cruised to reelection over a lackluster effort by Bob Dole in 1996. Where was the vaunted Republican "slime machine" then?

In 2000, George W. Bush really had no business winning, and he did not because of "slime" but because Al Gore ran a very sub par campaign - which is another way saying he followed every last bit of Bob Shrum's advice. Gore flopped in the debates and ended up unable to carry his home state of Tennessee.

In fact, if there was any slime in 2000 it was the Democrats who were the guilty party, when an operative with ties to the Gore campaign dropped Bush's decades-old DUI on the Friday before the election. It almost worked, too.

Clearly, Krugman seems to be speaking about the 2004 campaign and the Swift Boat Veterans when he writes, "Once the campaign gets serious, they'll suddenly question his or her patriotism and discover previously unmentioned but grievous character flaws."

If you reread that sentence and take out the words "question his or her patriotism," it's a fairly accurate description of what Jim Webb and the Democrats are doing to George Allen in Virginia right now. Did Allen open that door with his "macaca" comment? Sure.

But the difference between the two is that in the case of John Kerry, you had more than a hundred of his fellow veterans come forward, on the record, saying they felt he was unfit to be Commander and Chief.

Furthermore, the back and forth over the details surrounding Kerry's medals obscured the fact that the real thrust of the objection of the Swiftees had to do with what John Kerry did after the war, not during it: his tossing of his medals (or someone else's) over the White House fence, his blanket condemnation of U.S. troops before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, his 1970 trip to Paris to meet and talk with Communist leaders of North Vietnam. These three events aren't "slime," they are irrefutable facts. And whether Krugman likes it or not, they are absolutely fair game as a topic of discussion in a Presidential contest.

The point is that contrary to Krugman's myopic, one-sided view, politics is a rough business. Both sides know it, and both sides play it that way. Neither party has a monopoly on slime, nor does either side have a monopoly on virtue.

Quote of the Day

"The press is never going to report judicial opinions accurately. They're just going to report, who is the plaintiff? Was that a nice little old lady? And who is the defendant? Was this, you know, some scuzzy guy? And who won? Was it the good guy that won or the bad guy? And that's all you're going to get in a press report, and you can't blame them, you can't blame them. Because nobody would read it if you went into the details of the law that the court has to resolve. So you can't judge your judges on the basis of what you read in the press." - Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia.

Will Money Alone Save the GOP?

Barron's seems to think so.

But their analysis is flawed. For several reasons -- all of which are part of this fundamental fact about campaign cash: it is a necessary, but insufficient, criterion of electoral success.

(1) A dollar is worth more to a challenger than an incumbent. The reason is that challengers have to introduce themselves to the electorate, while incumbents do not. The electorate always has a very well-formed opinion of the incumbent, and so the marginal dollar will just be less effective for him than the challenger. So, a challenger who spends $2,000,000 will change more minds than an incumbent who spends $2,000,000.

(2) Not all campaign dollars are created equal. The marginal dollar required to run your first political ad is worth less than the marginal dollar required to run your seventeenth political ad. Why? Because your first ad is more likely to convince voters than your seventeenth. Thus -- some differences, say between $50,000 and $1,000,000, are much more critical than other differences, say between $3,050,000 and $4,000,000.

(3) Weak incumbents raise more money than strong incumbents. Statistical analysis actually shows that the more money an incumbent spends, the more likely he/she is to lose. Is it because his/her advertising is just that bad? No. Of course not. It is because incumbents who are vulnerable are the ones who raise and spend lots of cash. So -- the fact that Republican incumbents have more money than their Democratic challengers can be a sign both of strength (in the case of safe members with less than $1 million in the bank going up against challengers with less than $50,000) and weakness (in the case of weak members with more than $3 million in the bank going up against challengers with $2 million).

(4) Well-funded challengers almost always have good angles. That is how they have become well-funded. Strategic donors in the opposing party have sensed a weakness in the incumbent, or a strength in the challenger, and have decided to fund the latter's attack. Simply stated, they think the attack angle will work. So, well-funded challengers almost always have campaign strengths that dollars are used to actualize.

Why, then, is Barron's historical track record so accurate? Three reasons: (1) A direct dollar-to-dollar evaluation is probably more appropriate in open seat elections, and so they will make a genuine theoretical "purchase" there; (2) The reelection rate of incumbents has been rising slowly-but-surely in the time period that their data spans, and incumbents almost always have more money than their challengers; (3) Money is indeed important, and so Barron's model can be expected to have some predictive accuracy -- it is just that it is not important in the way that Barron's thinks. Even a misspecified model can be highly accurate in its predictions. Its problems will show up in other ways (e.g. non-random error, which I am guessing is probably the case here; they are probably more likely to be wrong for some cases than for others, e.g. self-funders).

(In point of fact -- most media types tend to make predictions based upon misspecified models. And the biggest problem is not misspecification, but that they do not realize that they are actually using models in the first place. This is one of the many problems that occur when English majors do political science.)

Again: the way to think about money is to think of it as a necessary but insufficient criterion of electoral success. Challengers need enough money to (a) introduce themselves to the electorate and (b) offer themselves as a credible alternative -- but that almost never requires them to actually spend more money than the incumbent.

Accordingly, Barron's method of a simple tabulation of the Republican-held contested districts where the Democrats have more money underestimates Democratic strength.

It also seems to me to be poorly applied - for instance, in predicting Busby to win over Bilbray, they fail to account for the fact that (a) most of Busby's money was spent in the Special Election and (b) Busby raised/spent more in the Special Election and still lost. They also seem to fail to properly account for (i) self-funders, like Jack Davis in NY 26, who have the capacity to draw funds quickly; and (ii) the fact that the most promising of challengers always get large influxes of cash after the Quarter III reports are published.

The correct way to evaluate the money situation is to (i) establish a reasonable "floor" of dollars minimally necessary for electoral success and (ii) estimate the number of challengers who will meet that standard. Unfortunately, nobody has really done that -- and I have been struck by the number of GOP-held seats that have "become" marginally competitive despite challengers who obviously have insufficient funds.

So -- if Barron's is way too bullish about the GOP, others have been way too bullish about the Democrats. Money matters -- not in the way that Barron's thinks. But it matters more than what others have implicitly estimated.

October 22, 2006

A Few Race Updates

In case you missed these on RCP's front page here are some updates in close races in the battle for the House and Senate.

Tennessee Senate: Bob Corker (R) vs. Harold Ford (D)

Ford, who has run a very strong campaign to date, appears to have made his first serious mistake with an ill-advised attempt to crash a Bob Corker press conference Friday in Memphis. You can watch the WMC Memphis TV coverage of this here "Harold Ford Junior Crashes Corker Presser." Corker appears to get the best of this confrontation and this is the kind of thing that can make a difference in a race as close as this one. Ford's bid in the InTrade market has fallen below 40 for the first time in quite a while.

Florida 22: Clay Shaw (R)* vs. Ron Klein (D)

Shaw's seat is a very competitive district that went 52% - 48% in the presidential race for the Democrat in both 2000 and 2004. After one of the closest House races in the country in 2000, Republicans in redistricting removed the Miami-Dade portion which Shaw lost 67%-33% in 2000. With a more favorable district he won handily in both 2002 and 2004 with over 60% of the vote.
This race had been high up on Democratic target lists but looks to have slipped as the campaign has entered the final stretch. Klein probably would have won this district how it was drawn in 2000, but running in the current 2006 lines he looks likely to come up a little short.

Pennsylvania 7: Curt Weldon (R)* vs. Joe Sestak (D)

Weldon, like his Pennsylvania colleague Don Sherwood is in a world of trouble. Of the three GOP Philadelphia suburban districts that the Democrats had set their sights on this cycle Weldon's seat had always thought to be the one least likely to flip, today it is the most likely. After Don Sherwood and Jeff Hostettler, Weldon is now the most vulnerable incumbent on RCP's list. Whatever the merit of Weldon and his daughter's situation with Russian business deals, the sight of FBI agents carting boxes out of your daughter's apartment three weeks from an election where you are in a very close race is not good news. Weldon is a fighter and his problems are not as acute as Sherwood's in PA-10, but his district is a Democratic-trending district that voted 51% for Gore in 2000 and 53% for Kerry in 2004. We think Weldon is in trouble here in 2006.

Pennsylvania 10: Don Sherwood (R)* vs. Chris Carney (D)

President Bush was here on Thursday trying to give Sherwood a boost in the home stretch. Sherwood has big, big troubles but this is a Republican district that gave Bush 60% just two years ago. Santorum's people will be in here hard which may spill over and help Sherwood on the margins, but were skeptical that he can pull this race out.

Connecticut 4: Chris Shays (R)* vs. Diane Farrell

Hard to believe that Democrats have a very good shot at capturing the House even though they might now win any of the three Connecticut House races they have targeted for over a year. Shays is generally considered to be thought the most vulnerable GOP incumbent of the three CT seats in play (CT-2, CT-4, CT-5); however Shays is running an energized campaign and appears to be benefiting significantly from Lieberman's strong Independent run. Shays raised $840,000 this last quarter eclipsing the record set by his opponent Diane Farrell earlier this year. This race will in all likelihood be a total toss up until the end. Ironically Ned Lamont may be the little bit that keeps this seat in the GOP column.

New York 26: Tom Reynolds (R)* vs. Jack Davis (D)

Reynolds looks to have stabilized his situation a little, but Foley has placed this race fully in play. The GOP appears to be running better in House races everywhere in the Northeast (CT and NH), except upstate New York. Republicans are going to lose seats in New York, Reynolds is hoping they keep it contained to Sherwood Boehlert's open seat in New York 24, because if there is another one to go down he is next in line.

Colorado 4: Marilyn Musgrave (R)* vs. Angie Paccione (D)

Even though this a relatively conservative district having delivered 58% for President Bush in 2004 Musgrave was always considered a potentially vulnerable incumbent because she only pulled 51% in 2004 after originally winning the seat with 55% in 2002. This race is currently #28 on RCP's House list and may have to drop lower if Musgrave continues to poll as impressively as she has in the last two public survey which both show her with 10 point leads. The DCCC pulled a significant amount of ad support for the Democratic challenger about two weeks ago which might have shut the door on Paccione's upset hopes.

Illinois 8: Dave McSweeney (R) vs. Melissa Bean (D)*

The Chicago Tribune poll is bad news for McSweeney, and while there is no question this race is considerably closer than 19 points, Bean has made the right votes in this district in her first term to assure Republican-leaning business types she can be a Democrat they can work with. RNC polling in this race shows McSweeney only down two, but today you would have to give the edge to the incumbent Bean.

October 21, 2006

A Media Conspiracy

I detect a devious conspiracy among the mainstream media to swing this election back in favor of the GOP:

The Woman Who Would Be Speaker: Uncompromising Pelosi Set to Seize Opportunity
By Lois Romano, Washington Post Staff Writer

Madam Speaker? Pelosi Likes the Sound: In line to lead the House if the Democrats win control, the Californian brings discipline, fundraising skill -- and a lightning-rod nature.

By Faye Fiore, Times Staff Writer

Not to mention this:

NEXT ON 60 MINUTES: Two Heartbeats Away
Sunday, Oct. 22 at 7 p.m. ET/PT

Nancy Pelosi could wind up as the House speaker if Democrats win a majority in the upcoming election, making her second in the line of succession to the presidency. Lesley Stahl reports.

What next? An Adam Nagourney front-pager profiling John Conyers and his secret post-election impeachment plans? It looks like the dastardly Karl Rove has done it once again. Somehow he's conned the MSM into promoting the one thing that might actually have enough juice left to get Republicans to the polls en masse in 17 days: the prospect of Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

October 20, 2006

Gen. Caldwell Conference Call and Dannatt Counterpoint

Earlier this morning I participated in a conference call with MGen. Bill Caldwell, Multinational Force - Iraq spokesman. Caldwell made two interesting points.

First, the release of the militia leader, Sheikh Mazen al-Saedi - part of Moqtada al-Sadr's organization - was requested, not demanded by the Maliki government. Equally important is the fact that Saedi was arrested (at about 3:30 am on the 17th) on charges of being part of illegal violent activities against Iraqis, not for organizing or participating in attacks on Coalition troops. He added that the MNF had a special organization that was tracking the illegal militias and had detained about two dozen leaders and more than five hundred members this month alone.

There has been a lot of misreporting of what the president said to George Stephanopoulos who posed the comparison between Iraq and Vietnam (written by NYT columnist Tom Friedman). I asked Caldwell about his understanding of what the president said. He agreed with my characterization of the president's remark as being limited to comparing the enemies' attempts to influence US public opinion. Caldwell said, "We've already seen on jihadist websites that they've said US elections are coming and they want to inflict the maximum number of casualties to influence the US people" to get out of Iraq. Those saying that Bush agreed to any broader comparison between Iraq and Vietnam are reporting what they wanted to hear, not what the president said.

The other news is a counterpoint to the recent rebellion against civilian authority by British Gen. Sir Richard Dannatt I wrote about a few days ago. Dannatt, in an interview with a UK paper, blasted the Blair government's Iraq policy. Here, Army chief of staff Gen. Peter Schoomaker is arguing with Defense Secretary Rumsfeld over the 2008 Army budget, but he's doing it the right way.

Rumsfeld's relationship with the Army began badly when then-chief of staff Gen. Eric Shinseki slow-rolled Rumsfeld's plans for transforming the army into a more flexible force. When Shinseki retired, Rumsfeld reached into the ranks of retired generals to bring back Schoomaker, an old special forces hand, to lead the army and transform it under fire. But now Schoomaker thinks the Army is being shorted by about $25 billion in 2008 and Rumsfeld disagrees. Their disagreement reached a low point when the Army refused to submit a 2008 budget based on the lower number. But the disagreement is professional, not personal, and it's being handled just that way. Rumsfeld agreed that Schoomaker could take his case directly to the White House and argue with OMB to get the additional money. I'm told by a Pentagon source that one or more senior members of the Defense Department controller's office went with Schoomaker. Schoomaker, unlike Dannatt but like almost every US general officer since Douglas MacArthur, understands that civilian control of the military is essential in a democracy. It's ok to argue with the boss and be upset with his decision, but you work within the system to resolve the dispute. Though the disagreement is serious, Rumsfeld and the Army are not at war with each other. But each respects the other enough to resolve policy differences the right way.

Connecticut 2

A new poll in the hotly contested CT-2 race gives GOP incumbent Rob Simmons a small two point lead, 46% - 44%. We have an updated analysis on this race:


Rob Simmons in Connecticut 2 is a not a guy who is being caught by surprise that he is in a tough race. Kerry and Gore both got 54% in his district, and he is regularly targeted as a prime pickup target by Democrats. This year is no exception. Simmons was extremely visible in the fight to save the New London sub base in his district and he is using that dramatic success very effectively in the campaign against Courtney.

A just-released poll by the University of Connecticut gives Simmons a small two point lead. Lieberman's likely substantial victory over Democrat Ned Lamont (he leads Lamont by 12.2% in the latest RCP Average) is also working to help Simmons on the margins as well as the very popular Republican Gov. Jodi Rell who is cruising to reelection.

This race continues to drop on our list of competitive house seats and is currently ranked #22.

Will Any Dem Seats Fall in the House?

So much of the focus this cycle has been on Republican seats in play. On RCP's list of the most likely House seats to switch parties, the first Dem seat doesn't appear until #33 with Melissa Bean in Illinois 8. But there is a basket of five seats Republicans are looking at for possible pickups (IL-8, GA-8, GA-12, VT-AL, and IA-3) and the odds would suggest that the GOP may be able to pick up one of these five. The two seats in Georgia, helped by a strong Sonny Perdue at the top of the ticket, are generally thought to offer Republicans their best hope for a pickup.

Today the Indianapolis Star has a front page story which is extremely interesting given how much of a battleground Indiana has become because of the three Republican districts in play (IN-2, IN-8, and IN-9).

A new poll shows Democratic U.S. Rep. Julia Carson narrowly trailing Republican Eric Dickerson -- an outcome that, if it holds on Election Day, would be one of the biggest upsets in Indiana politics.

Dickerson led Carson 45 percent to 42 percent in the poll conducted for WTHR (Channel 13), The Indianapolis Star's news-gathering partner.....The WTHR poll -- conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, and based on responses of 468 likely voters in the 7th Congressional District -- was startling, though, particularly in the wake of a poll of 400 likely voters, taken in September for WISH (Channel 8), that showed Carson with a lead of 20 percentage points. WTHR reported its poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Dickerson, a former auto dealer, has run his race largely on his own. He beat the Republican Party's endorsed candidate in the primary and has run his campaign with virtually no state or national support since.

"It's just another confirmation that our campaign is very, very serious and we do intend to win this race," Dickerson told WTHR.

Indiana 7 is a reasonably secure Democratic district, giving 58% for Kerry in 2004 and 55% for Gore in 2004. But Carson has had some serious health issues and she's also been unable to get over 55% of the vote since the seat was redistricted in 2002 making it more attractive to Republican candidates.

We're skeptical just how much this seat may really be in play, but this is certainly a race we are going to keep an eye on.

Selling Books or Running For Prez?

Nine months ago on "Meet the Press," Tim Russert asked Barack Obama point blank: "So you will not run for president or vice-president in 2008?" Mr. Obama responded flatly, "I will not." In a cover story for Chicago Magazine the following month Mr. Obama reiterated his intention not to run for President in 2008.

These days, however, as he hits the circuit to promote his new book "The Audacity of Hope," Mr. Obama is conspicuously coy in responding to questions about 2008, saying only that he's "focused" on the 2006 midterms just nineteen days away. In the meantime, Mr. Obama is using his considerable star power to exploit the media machine to its fullest. The new issue of Time Magazine, which landed on the newsstands on Monday, carries his picture on the cover, an excerpt from his book, and a 3,178-word buff and shine piece by Joe Klein.

Yesterday Mr. Obama and his wife appeared on Oprah (the show was taped back on Oct. 3) where he again easily dodged the 2008 issue. This morning David Brooks begins his column in the New York Times by writing, "Barack Obama should run for President." Tonight Mr. Obama will field an hour's worth of softballs from Larry King.

And on Sunday Mr. Obama will come full circle and return to the set of "Meet the Press" where, presumably, Tim Russert will pull out a video clip from January and confront Mr. Obama with his unequivocal statement that he doesn't intend to run 2008. That should make for quite an interesting moment.

What Amazes Me Most...

What amazes me most about this campaign season has been, without question, the media.

I do not ever recall the national political press corps, and its attendant pundits, vacillating back and forth so incredibly violently.

"It's a wave election!" "No it's not!" "Oh yes it is!" "Oh no it isn't!"

"It's a national election!" "No it's not!" "Oh yes it is!" "Oh no it isn't!"

"It's a blow-out!" "No it's not!" "Oh yes it is!" "Oh no it isn't!"

"Democratic enthusiasm can trump Republican GOTV machinery." "No it can't!" "Oh yes it can!" "Oh no it can't!"

It's been like a Monty Python sketch, hasn't it? "The GOP is dead, I tell you!" "Oh no it isn't...it's just restin'!"

Based upon memory, I can recall five discrete vacillations. You had GOP bullishness around March. That lasted until about the end of April. Then the CA 50 campaign induced Democratic bullishness. That lasted until the actual election, which then again induced Republican bullishness. That lasted until about mid-July, where there again began a period of Democratic bullishness. This shifted around 9/11, which initiated another round of GOP bullishness. Right now we are in a stage of Democratic bullishness.

So -- that's five vacillations in six months!

Unbelievable.

What is most unbelievable is that it is literally nothing more than vacillation. It is not like a real debate, where new evidence swings things one direction and then another. It's the same darned evidence being paraded on both sides. Democratic strengths X, Y and Z are emphasized for a while. Then, they are totally abandoned to emphasize GOP strengths A, B and C. Nobody in the press ever actually gets around to debunking, reconciling, aggregating, weighing X, Y, Z, A, B and C! They just change their emphases! The story line changes when somebody in an elite position in the media "remembers" the other side's factors. "And...oh yeah! Well...it looks like things have swung again!"

If we all take a step back and ponder this, I think we come up with two different hypotheses:
(1) The election has been as variable as the media has taken it to be. The most variable in modern history.
(2) The election has been relatively constant. The media is the variable factor. They vary because they incorrectly think congressional elections work like presidential elections and/or some strange soap opera called "As the Beltway Turns." They just generally have no idea what they are doing. So, they are always getting tricked into false positives, which they soon discover to be false positives, and which they then justify as "Well -- it's a-swingin' back the other way!" And, as they are the media, i.e. our window to the world, (1) appears to be true.

I prefer (1). Just kidding!

Here's an idea -- rather than take bets on how many seats the Democrats will pick up -- why don't we take bets on how many more times the media consensus will swing? The last swing was at the end of last month -- and as there is, on average, a swing in the consensus every 1 month and 1 week, the odds are that there will be at least one more, on or about November 5.

But my money is actually on 2 more swings. I think there will be a brief flirtation with "Maybe it won't be that bad for the GOP..." around the end of this month. And then a "Oh...YES IT WILL!"

And then, on Election Day, if they are "right," they will trumpet their keen political sensibilities -- "We called this sucker, didn't we?" "Oh...yeah we did. We had it all along!" "Good for us!"

If they are "wrong," they will trumpet their keen political sensibitilies and procliam how the party ostensibly on the outs managed to perform an unheard-of come-from-behind feat of great political cunning at the last minute to snatch defeat from the jaws of...

...and blah, blah, blah. The truth is that they are never right nor wrong. They are just unfalsifiable. If Karl Popper were alive to witness this campaign season, his head would explode. I'm actually thinking about wearing a tight-fitting Steelers football helmet between now and Election Day to prevent exactly that from occurring.

October 19, 2006

Keith Olbermann and the Democratic Party

Keith Olbermann certainly represents the netroots wing of the Democratic party, and his "Special Comment" on the Miliatry Commisions Act that ran on Countdown last night (see below) is a clear example of the thinking that pervades this increasingly powerful part of the Democratic base.


For, on this first full day that the Military Commissions Act is in force, we now face what our ancestors faced, at other times of exaggerated crisis and melodramatic fear-mongering:
A government more dangerous to our liberty, than is the enemy it claims to protect us from.

It is this wing of the party that successfully purged Joe Lieberman from the Democratic ranks this summer. And while the Democrats are poised to pickup seats this fall in both houses, the growing power of the Olbermann wing of the party does not bode well for long term Democrat success.

The Democratic Party needs more Jim Webbs and less Ned Lamonts. They are fortunate that Lamont is going to go down in the general in a couple of weeks - even though it will probably cost them 1-2 house seats in Connecticut that Democrats would have otherwise won had Lieberman been running on the Democratic ticket. Webb is an attractive candidate who is well suited for conservative-leaning Virginia, which is an under-appreciated reason he is faring so well against George Allen. Unlike Lamont, Webb has a real shot at pulling out a victory in a couple of weeks, but he will need a last minute push in the polls as Allen looks to have stopped the bleeding and is nearing the magical 50% level in the RCP Average.

Small Movement Toward the GOP?

A few polls are beginning to show a little better news for Republicans the past 24 hours. SurveyUSA has a new Senate poll in Maryland that has Republican Lt. Gov. Micheal Steele tied with Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin 46% - 46%. We have updated our analysis on this race which is still in the "Leans Democrat" column.

If the general outlook for Republicans can improve just a little between now and election day Steele may have shot at the upset because of his ability to eat into critical African-American votes the Democratic nominee would usually count on as in the bag. Steele is pulling 25% of the black vote in SurveyUSA's latest poll down from 33% in their September poll. If it looks like he can get a 1/3rd of the African-American vote on election day this race becomes a true toss up.

A quick glance at the RCP Chart in this race shows Steele's new found momentum.

In Colorado 4 SurveyUSA has the Republican incumbent ahead by 10 points, 48% - 38%. Musgrave is currently #28 on RCP's list of most likely House seats to switch parties, so it is good news for the GOP that this race has perhaps stabilized for Musgrave. Chris Chocola in Indian's 2nd CD comes in at #12 on the list and he is decidedly in more trouble, a new Research 2000 poll out today has him trailing Jim Donnelly by 5points, 50% -45%. We have an new updated analysis up on that race:

IN-2 is in many ways one of the bellwether House races for control of Congress. Indiana's second congressional district voted 53% for Bush in 2000 and 56% for the President in 2004. Chris Chocola lost to former Rep. Tim Roemer in what was Indiana's 3rd district in 2000, but managed 47% of the vote. In 2002, in an open seat race, he defeated a formidable opponent in Jill Long 50% - 47% in Indiana's new 2nd district. And in 2004 he handily won reelection against his current opponent Joe Donnelly 54% - 45%.

Perhaps his easy win in 2004 bred a certain level of overconfidence in Chocola, but he without question finds himself in a battle today. Donnelley has led in most of the public surveys, including a Republican poll released just a week ago by a point, Donnelley 45% - Chocola 44%. Indiana's decision to lease a major toll road in Chocola's district appears to be really hurting the incumbent along with the switch to daylight savings time, a quirk that had been in effect in parts of the district. The latest Research 2000 poll just released today gives Donnelly a 5 point edge, 50% - 45%.

Chocola has the resources, and this is a Republican leaning district, but he may have let this race get away from him over the summer.

This is exactly the type of race Democrats need to win to capture the House.

There are a whole bunch of RT Strategies/CD and Zogby Interactive polls out as well in competitive House, Senate and Governor races. The batch of RT Strategies House polls look to favor the Democrats. In NY-20 (which is #37 on RCP's list) they have the Democratic challenger up a whopping 14 points, 54% - 41%. However, a newly released traditional telephone poll by Sienna taken at exactly the same time as the RT Strategy/CD poll has the Republican incumbent Sweeney up 14 points, 53% - 39%. Needless to say both polls can not be right.

And then there are the basket of Zogby/WSJ.com internet polls that on balance show pretty good news for Republicans in the Senate. In RCP's current "Toss Up" ranked senate races the Zogby polls have the Republican ahead in all four - Missouri: Talent +2, New Jersey: Kean +2, Tennessee: Corker +7 and in Virginia: Allen +3. If Democrats take all of the races RCP has leaning their direction today they would need to win 3 out of 4 of these races to win the Senate. The current RCP Average and InTrade markets give Republicans the edge in Virginia and the Democrats the edge in New Jersey with split verdicts in Missouri and Tennessee.

The Last Word on Slavishly

A reader emails:

I'm a bit bothered that Steele and the Republicans are making a big deal out of "slavishly." He's not running against Hoyer. As far as I'm concerned the use of "slavishly" - even when referring to an African American - is no worse than using the world "niggardly" that landed a DC government employee into some trouble a few years ago. It's an adverb, not a slur.

Paul Mirengoff made a similar point about the word "slavish" the other day: "This word is used all the time in politics to attack those who support a particular line. Let's not draw any inferences from ordinary usage of the English language."

Let me stipulate that I don't think this is a HUGE deal, but I do disagree. Etymology and definition, as well as context, do matter in the use of words. Niggardly has nothing whatsoever to do with race, and to castigate someone for using the word in its proper context simply because it happens to sound similar to a racially offensive term is ludicrous.

The definition of "slavishly," however, does very clearly mean "of or befitting a slave" and/or "being or resembling a slave; abjectly submissive." Technically the word is race netural, though in America, for obvious reasons, the word is loaded with racial implications - especially when used either as an adjective or an adverb to describe an African-American. As the emailer points out, that doesn't make the use of the word a slur, but it does make it a gaffe and a very poor choice of words.

Let's also remember that while Hoyer's remark may appear innocuous enough in isolation, it is of a piece with the history of the way members of the Democratic party in Maryland, both white and black, have treated Michael Steele. Steele has been previously been referred to as a "token," an "Uncle Tom," and had Oreo cookies thrown at him, etc.

So I think Steele has every right to make it an issue, and he's obviously chosen to do so. As I said before, however, I have no idea whether the episode is going to provide any traction for Steele at all, especially since Hoyer went ahead and issued a fairly prompt apology.

Endorsements

They don't mean anything, but it's part of the process nonetheless:

- Washington Times endorses Republican George Allen for Senate.

- Chicago Tribune endorses Democrat Tammy Duckworth in IL06.

- Providence Journal endorses Democrat Joe Courtney in CT02.

- San Diego Union-Tribune endorses Democrat Dianne Feinstein for Senate.

- Dallas Morning News endorses Republian Kay Bailey Hutchinson for Senate.

- Arizona Republic endorses Republican Rick Renzi in AZ01 and Democrat Gabrielle Giffords in AZ08.

The Most Dangerous Job in America

According to an analysis of U.S. Department of Labor records done by the Chicago Sun-Times, the most dangerous job in America is.....working at City Hall in Chicago.

Has Hugo Chavez Peaked?

Andres Oppenheimer writes a really intriguing column in the Miami Herald today:

Has Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez reached his peak? Will his political star begin to fade following his latest setbacks at the United Nations and his failure to get his protégés elected in Peru's and Ecuador's first-round elections?

Like many of you, I found myself asking these questions while watching Chávez's international embarrassment at the United Nations, where he has so far failed to win a much-coveted Latin American nonpermanent seat on the Security Council. Chávez had been working around the clock to win the seat, visiting more than 30 countries over the past year and donating more than $1.3 billion all over the world in exchange for promises to support Venezuela over U.S.-backed Guatemala in the U.N. vote.

Yet, when the voting started Monday, Venezuela -- which claimed to have the support of more than 100 countries, versus about 90 for Guatemala -- not only failed to get the needed 128 votes, but ended up far behind Guatemala. Since the voting is secret, it became apparent that many countries that received Venezuelan petrodollars had publicly supported Chávez but then voted secretly for Guatemala. Voting resumes today after a day off.

Read the rest.

The Hillary Killer?

Glenn Thrush of Newsday says Hillary's folks are watching Obama closely:

Clinton's allies, donors and operatives have always known that the charisma-dripping Democrat from Illinois was toying with a presidential run. But Obama's refusal to rule out a White House campaign sends shudders through the Clinton camp.

"They were in a tizzy about the possibility of Al Gore running, they were in a tizzy about Mark Warner and now they're in a tizzy about Barack Obama," said a Democratic operative with ties to Clinton.

Personally, I think Hillary might secretly relish a slug fest with Al Gore. Obama is a different matter. I have never seen anyone get such universal, sustained adulation by the media (David Brooks joins in this morning).

My favorite quote is by John Kass of the Chicago Tribune, and it's as true today as it was when he wrote it eight months ago:

"As far as the media are concerned, Obama walks on water. If he ever develops gas and burps, half the nation's newspapers will run front-page stories declaring his breath to be lavender. The other half will declare it to be peach. CNN's Wolf Blitzer will shout that it's a combination of the best peach and the best lavender."

Brilliant. And true.

A Correction

In a post yesterday I incorrectly asserted that Duke President Richard Broadhead had expelled members of the lacrosse team. He did not. I stand by my criticism of Broadhead's handling of the matter, but the error in my post is significant. My apologies.

October 18, 2006

Lessons of History

In case you missed it, yesterday afternoon we posted this story about Abraham Lincoln and Walt Whitman which deserves an additional mention.

The setting is New Year's Eve, 1862, one of the darkest moments of the Civil War, and President Lincoln is up late penning a final version of the Emancipation Proclamation to be issued the following day. Tell me the following passage does not strike you as it did me:

The fireworks thundered all night. Then, as the sun rose, the streets around the White House began to fill with citizens who had come from far and wide to greet Mr. Lincoln at the president's customary New Year's levee.

Lincoln did not drink, and in any case this was not a night for him to celebrate. Military dispatches from Murfreesboro, Tenn., were appalling. On December 31 the Rebels, led by General Braxton Bragg, had attacked William Starke Rosecrans' Army of the Cumberland. "Our entire line suffered terribly this morning," said telegraph superintendent Colonel Anson Stager's telegram. "Four regiments of regulars lost half of their men, and all of their commanding officers....

Majors Rosengarten and Ward were killed, Generals Stanley, Rousseau and Palmer were wounded....The Fifteenth Wisconsin lost seven captains. General Negley's artillery is still mowing the rebels in the center." In his third dispatch Stager admitted, "The greatest carnage of the war has occurred." Soon the president, and the country, would learn that there were 24,000 casualties at Murfreesboro. Two weeks earlier at Fredericksburg, 18,000 soldiers had been killed and wounded, and the president had said, "If there is a worse place than Hell, I am in it."

Walt Whitman's brother George, a first lieutenant under Maj. Gen. Ambrose Burnside's command, survived the Union disaster at Fredericksburg in December, advancing over a narrow turf the Rebels had so perfectly enfiladed that one gunner remarked, "A chicken could not live in that field when we opened on it." Walt called Burnside's charge "the most complete piece of mismanagement perhaps ever known in the earth's wars." Public confidence in the commander in chief collapsed, and his cabinet was at loggerheads, so that he was able to hold it together only by the most ingenious diplomacy.

"I am heartsick," lamented Senator William Pitt Fessendon of Maine, "when I think of the mismanagement of our army....There never was such a shambling, half-and-half set of incapables collected in one government before or since the world began." New York lawyer George Templeton Strong wrote in his famous diary: "Even Lincoln himself has gone down at last. Nobody believes in him any more."

One would hope this might serve as a lesson to those who bleat day in and day out with such certainty about the incompentence of this administration and its management of the war. History is long, and far more patient and circumspect than many of those who live in it. It will take a generation or more before we can get a proper view and make proper judgments about this President and his policies.

Hoyer's Apology

Steny apologizes for "slavishly" remark.

An emailer says the Hoyer episode brought back a memory:

I couldn't help but be reminded of the turning point in New York's 1992 Senate campaign. In that race, incumbent Al D'Amato trailed Robert Abrams, the state's attorney general, in the polls all year, until Abrams made an off-handed remark, calling D'Amato a "fascist." D'Amato, an Italian-American, and his supporters, immediately and vocally took offense, calling it an ethnic slur. They kept the issue alive for days, and Abrams was taken completely off-guard. After some prolonged fumbling, Abrams eventually apologized. But it was too late- D'Amato had gained the momentum and won a slim victory, in a terrible Republican year.

Could Steny Hoyer's "slavish" remark be Cardin's "fascist" moment?

Maybe, though it's somewhat different when a supporter/associate of a candidate makes this type of mistake than when the candidate does it himself (or herself). Still, if Cardin has one worry it's that African-Americans will defect to Steele, and Hoyer's unfortunate choice of words is just the type of thing that might increase the odds of that taking place.

I'm not sure if Steele is going to get any mileage out of this or not - but he's certainly trying. In that case, he might as well respond to Hoyer the same way D'Amato did to Abrams back in 1992: write a letter saying that "only when the political damage became too great did you offer an apology. I neither forgive nor excuse your behavior."

Kaus's Question

Still on fence patrol, Mickey Kaus asks: is George Bush ashamed to sign this bill?

This Just In...

War hero and POW John McCain survived five years of torture at the Hanoi Hilton in Vietnam but says he'd probably just "commit suicide" if he has to face a Congress controlled by Democrats.

He joking, of course, but you know what they say about every joke containing a seed of truth....

Comments on Gerrymandering

Some interesting emails on redistricting:

As a prospective Republican Congressional candidate in advance of the 1992 election, I witnessed the North Carolina redistricting process that the Wall Street Journal called, I think, "political pornography". Two "minority/majority" districts were created that ensured the election of 2 black Congressmen and those districts remain today. The net effect of this was the Balkanization of most of North Carolina's minority population, and this effort was done by a Democratic State House and Senate with the complicity of the then Bush 41 Justice Department. The result, which has been replicated through other parts of the country, has allowed Republicans to virtually assure themselves of a majority in the House and has allowed minority Democrats a similar luxury of assured reelection.

Look no further than the hard left within the Congressional Black Caucus to see what becomes of candidates who have no or token opposition. And Republicans are not without blame here either. By removing a largely monolithic voting block from diverse Congressional districts, redistricting has created largely white and quite conservative Districts, where there is also little or no opposition. And what do we get? Congressmen and Congresswomen who are primarily interested in appealing to their narrow bases back home. Only when both parties, or the Courts, realize the damage that this has done to our country, will some of the negative tenor of political discourse begin to subside. Sadly, I am not hopeful.

**********

Gerrymandering may be anti-democratic, but at least it's being done by partisans who make no excuse for their partisanship. In the case of appointing retired judges (often the suggestion, as if former judges don't have their own political motives), the public is supposed to trust that such committees don't have their own agendas. I would rather have politicians whose motives are out in the open do the redistricting than unelected and accountable 'worthies' do the deed.

Conservatives love to argue against campaign finance reform, arguing (fairly in my view) that disclosure is the way to go. Voters can make up their own minds based in part of the identity of the donors to a given campaign. The same spirit should be at work in the case of redistricting. I would rather have politicians whose intent is plain to see as opposed to unaccountable committees. There is no such thing as an unbiased district map.

**********

I think Jay Cost and Bruce Reed both missed the most insidious threat posed by gerrymandering and that is extremism. When parties have safe districts party extremists get elected. That has fueled the rancor that occurs in Congress and the dissatisfaction of the American electorate with Congress.

When the party extremist is elected over 50% of the electorate is bound to be disappointed. The partisans of the losing party grow increasingly embittered by their perpetual disenfranchisement. The moderates of both parties are often disappointed as well because the Congress is populated by extremists that are unwilling to agree on policies that seem obvious to the majority of the electorate.

The extremism in Congress means that most Congressmen think it is more important to take a stand than to be effective. Compromise is a weakness not strength. When one party won't compromise with the extremist legislators gain more power. If the Democrats won't compromise with the Republicans the details of legislation become more extreme because the party leaders can't afford to lose any votes from their right wing extremists. The same thing will occur if the Democrats gain power but it will be the left wing extremists that gain power.

Unfortunately under the present system we are perpetually condemned to swing from the radical right to the looney left. As a moderate Republican I am forced to support Republican candidates because I am more afraid of the anti-war left than I am the social reforms of the radical right. I'm sure many moderates of both parties are in the same position I am, forced to choose the lesser of two evils.

Three Weeks is a Long Time

Three weeks can be a lifetime in today's new media world, especially in a mid-term election like this one. At the very beginning of August, the RCP Generic Average in the congressional ballot gave the Democrats a solid double-digit edge in the 12%-14% range. Three weeks later on Aug 21st the RCP Average stood at Dems +5.6%. This was followed by a pullback toward the Dems before another surge by the GOP around the 9/11 anniversary and the White House's intense focus on terrorism related issues. Democrats were enjoying another pullback toward a 10-point lead when the Foley Scandal broke on September 29. In the almost three weeks since, Republicans have seen their momentum destroyed and have been utterly pushed back on their heels across the board.

In the last few days we have seen an increasing number of dramatic predictions of massive Democratic gains in November. National Journal's Charlie Cook is talking about a "once or twice in a generation election" like 1994 and 1974 where the incumbent party lost 52 and 49 seats. And Jim VandeHei writes in today's Washington Post:

Democrats said private polls have convinced top party officials that they could pick up 40 or more seats -- nearly double their internal projections from a week ago.....

So Cook and VandeHei are pumping the Democratic blowout line today, which is fine. But I don't know how much that tells us about what the playing field is going to look like in 19 days on November 6. Is it possible that 2006 is another 1994 or 1972 or 1932? Sure, it's possible. Is it likely? Well, that is another story.

Three weeks is a long time. The former trader in me asks: "at what point is the bad news priced in for the GOP?" And where is the Democratic wave talk going to go next? Are we going to see stories in a couple of weeks playing up Democratic prospects of winning 60-70 seats? Or is it more likely we will get a swing back to the GOP and see the inevitable stories wondering "Did the Democrats Peak Too Soon?"

My money would be on the latter. And if that is the case, what does that do to the analysis of where these extremely close races are really going to break?

While I won't discount the wheels totally falling off the GOP bus, and I acknowledge the possibility that Republicans could lose 30 - 40 seats, the evidence I see today ranks that as a lower probability than the GOP holding both Houses. In other words, Republicans have a better chance of retaining control of Congress than they do of losing the Senate and 40+ House seats. That may not be the conventional wisdom bantered about at the moment, but as I said, three weeks is a very long time.

What Duke's President Should Have Said

In case you weren't aware, on Saturday the University of Miami football team got into a hellacious on-field brawl during the middle of its game against Florida International University (you can see it all here on YouTube). Despite the nastiness of the episode, which resulted in the suspension of 13 Miami players (and another 18 from FIU), Donna Shalala, the former head of HHS who is now President of the University of Miami, appeared at a team press conference to defend her students:

''I believe that the young men we have recruited for our football team are young men of great character, but they did a very bad thing,'' Shalala said. ". . .It's time for me to say publicly that I believe in them, that I believe that they did something awful, but that I want them to continue at the University of Miami. And it's time for me to say to the community and to those that have been sending me e-mails that this university will be firm and punish people that do bad things.

"But we will not throw any student under the bus for instant restoration of our image or our reputation. I will not hang them in a public square. I will not eliminate their participation at the university. I will not take away their scholarships. . .

If only the President of Duke University, Richard Broadhead, had said something similar in the aftermath of the affair with the lacrosse team.

Cleary, what happened in Miami is vastly different than a he said-she said rape allegation, but Broadhead's knee-jerk reaction to believe the word of a stripper over his students, to cancel the season and expel members of the team from the University without giving them so much as a chance to defend themselves and prove their innocence is reprehensible and unforgivable.

As we've seen from watching the course of the investigation, it's looking more and more like three boys have had their lives destroyed by a false allegation put into the hands of an irresponsible and abusive prosecutor. Duke's President shares the blame - and the shame - for the way this case has gone by throwing these kids under the bus right from the start.

This Just In...

Another big scoop in today's New York Times: "The bellwether state of Ohio appears to have become hostile terrain for Republicans this year..."

Making a Horserace

Today's Arizona Republic offers a textbook example of the media's irresistible desire to create the drama of a horserace: "Pederson finds momentum in Senate race." Really? Where's the proof for that claim? Read the article and all you'll find is this:

Yes, he is on his third set of campaign inner-circle advisers, but he says his current team of young bare-knuckle go-getters was worth the wait. The first time he rolled through Sedona and Prescott last spring to campaign, only about five people showed up at either stop.

He has kept plugging away, and at this rally, in the middle of a workday, there are more than 50 fervent supporters cheering him on. Close to 100 meet him at another rally in Prescott on the same day.

It is this type of progress that fuels Pederson's disbelief in recent polls that have him consistently trailing by 9 to 10 points and buoys his belief that Arizona voters will turn out a three-term Republican incumbent.

Taking the word of the candidate who doesn't believe the polls is hardly solid ground for claiming he's got momentum. If Jon Kyl told the Arizona Republic he didn't believe the polls either and thought he was up by 20 points, would they run a headline that said "Kyl Crushing Pederson in Senate Race?" Obviously not.

If you look at the trendlines in the polls in this race, right now there is precious little evidence to suggest Pederson has "big mo." That's not to say definitively that Pederson doesn't have momentum or that he won't gain ground - indeed the natural tendency of any race is to tighten toward the end - only that the Arizona Republic offers nothing to support its claim.

Senate Debates Redux

In Washington state, incumbent Democrat Maria Cantwell faced a more aggressive Mike McGavick last night in their second, and final, debate. Adding to last night's fun was the presence of Libertarian candidate Bruce Guthrie, who recently mortgaged his home to loan his campaign enough money to qualify for the debate. The Seattle PI reports that Guthrie gave an "earnest presentation of his sometimes out-of-the-mainstream views," but he won't be much of a factor in the end.

The latest poll in this race by SurveyUSA (10/13-10/15) showed some slight movement for McGavick, closing the gap from 12 points in September (42-54) to eight points this month (43-51), but the other polls are now three and four weeks old so we'll have to wait and see just how much tightening occurs. The rule is to never say never in politics, but in this particular state in this particular year, with only three weeks left it's very hard to see the incumbent losing.

All the way across the country in New Jersey, Democrat Bob Menendez and Republican Tom Kean, Jr. mixed it up again yesterday on a radio debate. The two clashed on immigration and Iraq but, according to the Star-Ledger, the debate was relatively tame until the last 20 minutes when the moderator allowed the candidates to question each other directly:

That's when the program slid out of control as Menendez and Kean interrupted each other's answers and bandied back and forth such rejoinders as "That's just not true."

Amid the tumult, Menendez pointedly asked whether Kean, if he could go back to the 2004 presidential election, would vote for Bush or Democratic Sen. John Kerry. Kean said, "I've disagreed with this administration," but then acknowledged he would vote for President Bush.

When Kean asked Menendez about corruption allegations and a campaign appearance last week with Democratic state Sen. Wayne Bryant, who faces a federal inquiry into tax-paid jobs he holds outside the Legislature, Menendez lit into his opponent.

"You're campaign has been a campaign of smear," Menendez said. "You smear because you fear. ... You throw out allegations like most people throw out garbage."

Menendez currently leads Kean by 3.5% in the latest RCP Average, though I would expect to see more polls in this race very soon.

October 17, 2006

Gen. Dannatt's Declaration

There are a lot of ways to look at the "Revolt of the Generals" that reached its high point in the Tom Ricks book, "Fiasco." As I wrote on RCP last July, some of us, including me, can't understand how anyone can think them credible when none of the six generals involved raised their concerns, as they could have and should have, through the chain of command while they are on active duty. But however you judge these generals' credibility, you have to credit them for one thing: none of them publicly rebelled against civilian authority when on active duty. Which brings us to the outrageous conduct of Gen. Richard Dannatt, the chief of staff of the British Army.

In an interview with the UK's Daily Mail, Dannatt condemned the British presence in Iraq and suggested it end quickly. Here's the money quote:

He says with great clarity and honesty that "our presence exacerbates the security problems". "I think history will show that the planning for what happened after the initial successful war-fighting phase was poor, probably based more on optimism than sound planning.

"History will show that a vacuum was created and into the vacuum malign elements moved. The hope that we might have been able to get out of Iraq in 12, 18, 24 months after the initial start in 2003 has proved fallacious. Now hostile elements have got a hold it has made our life much more difficult in Baghdad and in Basra.

"The original intention was that we put in place a liberal democracy that was an exemplar for the region, was pro-West and might have a beneficial effect on the balance within the Middle East.

"That was the hope. Whether that was a sensible or naïve hope, history will judge. I don't think we are going to do that. I think we should aim for a lower ambition."

Sir Richard adds, strongly, that we should "get ourselves out sometime soon because our presence exacerbates the security problems". "We are in a Muslim country and Muslims' views of foreigners in their country are quite clear. "As a foreigner, you can be welcomed by being invited into a country, but we weren't invited, certainly by those in Iraq at the time. Let's face it, the military campaign we fought in 2003 effectively kicked the door in.

"That is a fact. I don't say that the difficulties we are experiencing around the world are caused by our presence in Iraq, but undoubtedly our presence in Iraq exacerbates them."

The problem with what Dannatt said isn't whether he's right or wrong. Britain is a democracy and national policy is made by civilians, not military officers. Military officers aren't elected: for them to dictate policy - as every American officer learns from the first day he enters ROTC, one of the military academies or officer training school - is tantamount to dictatorship. Every one of us has sworn to protect and defend the Constitution of the United States even at the cost of our lives. Part of that is to preserve the subordination of the military to civilian command.

There is no compromise possible on civilian command. So far, British PM Tony Blair hasn't disciplined Dannatt. If he doesn't, the British general staff should resign en masse in protest. It's your duty, gentlemen.

GOP Doing Better in Northeast

If you notice on our updated House list, the highly targeted Republican incumbents in Connecticut and the Philly suburbs have dropped and appear to be a little more secure that they were over the summer. Of those six seats (CT2, CT-4, CT-5, PA-6, PA-7, PA-8) the GOP is actually in a position to potentially hold all six and could easily keep their losses to only two. Weldon and Shays appear the most vulnerable of that group on our list.

This seems to be the one geographic pocket of good news for Republicans and looks to be confirmed by the release of NPR-sponsored data from GQR and POS that shows the Northeast as clearly the region where Republicans are doing the best in contested house seats. The NPR poll has Republicans trailing in the named congressional ballot by 11% in the West, 8% in the Midwest and 11% in the South versus only 2% in the Northeast.

Jay commented on this a while back, speculating that perhaps Northeastern Republicans, who are always in for tough races, recognized this year would be particularly hard for them and thus have been campaigning aggressively for some time whereas some Republican incumbents in what are thought to be safer GOP districts might have gotten caught a little flat footed.

Another factor in the Connecticut races is that it now looks clear Joe Lieberman's independent bid for Senate is really helping the trio of Connecticut Republicans. It certainly would be ironic if the GOP held the House because of Ned Lamont's big August win.

Steny's Choice of Words

Did the number two Democrat in the House of Representatives (who is white) really tell a Maryland crowd that Republican Senate candidate Michael Steele (who is black) has had "a career of slavishly supporting the Republican Party?" Unbelievably, the answer is "yep."

Class Warfare, Pay-Go, and the Democratic DNA

Most supply-siders and conservative pundits believe that if the Dems manage to take the House and Senate, President Bush's investor tax cuts will be safe because they have been extended to 2010.

Folks also think President Bush will veto any tax hike legislation that a new Democratic Congress might pass. Yes, yes, I believe Bush would definitely veto a direct tax hike bill. But the political story will be much more complicated than this.

Because if a Democratic Congress passes new "pay-as-you-go" rules, then the tax cuts will be severely jeopardized.

A revenue-oriented Pay-Go would show the static revenue loss each year that is scored by the Congressional Budget Office. This means that Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Charlie Rangel, John Spratt and other Dems would be able to craft a so-called big bang deficit reduction package that would (falsely) cobble together spending cuts with tax revenue hikes.

President Bush might eventually be confronted with a Hobbesian choice of vetoing a so-called $500 billion dollar deficit reduction package that would overturn and rollback cap gains, dividends and the top income tax rate.

Inside the DNA of the Democratic party remains an obsessive desire to raise the income tax rate back to President Clinton's 39.6 percent. There exists a class warfare mentality that seeks to tax and penalize the rich. It is an obsessive, biological instinct to soak American success stories as some kind of Soviet style income leveling exercise that is supposed to make the non-rich feel better.

This is all nonsense--typical liberal left-wing pabulum.

The key point here is that Bush's tax cuts have done an amazing job in reigniting the U.S. economy. The 2003 tax cuts rallied the stock market, generated 6 ½ million new jobs, and have paid for themselves with soaring revenues that have, in turn, plunged the deficit. But this is all in jeopardy because of the potential of new pay-go rules.

I've checked with OMB budget officials on this. They confirm my green eyeshade memory from the days when I was President Reagan's associate budget director. Unfortunately, bad habits and bad thoughts have long shelf lives.

So, let me warn my fellow conservative friends and the investor class: a Democratic sweep come November will put Bush's hugely successful tax cuts front and center on the chopping block.

It's a sobering thought.

Initial Crunching of the FEC Numbers

This is a project I hope to do more thoroughly in the next couple of days -- but I thought I might just highlight some surprises I have found thus far on the Democratic side.

My "population" of Democratic seats thus far is the 18 Democratic challengers of Republican incumbents who populate Charlie Cook's toss-up category. The comparison is to those challengers of incumbents from 2004 who eventually raised the minimum amount of money to beat an incumbent that year ($1.5 million). I have not really had a chance to examine whether candidates in races considered to be marginal contests are on track to raise enough cash. This is the question that most interests me -- whether the FEC reports indicate that analysts are underestimating the current playing field. Nevertheless, here are some quick observations on these 18:

1. The average cash on hand for these 18 is about $250,000 larger than it was in 2004. So also is the median cash on hand. Overall, this group of challengers has a lot of money left for the final push.

2. The average total receipts for these 18 is about $450,000 larger than it was in 2004. So also is the median cash on hand. Overall, this group of challengers has been more adept at raising cash than the 2004 crop.

3. There are a few "stragglers" in terms of cash on hand -- some of which are surprising. Democratic challengers Joe Courtney in CT 02 and Steve Cranley in OH 01 have very little cash on hand left. Courtney only has about $210,000 in the bank. Cranley, believe it or not, only has $119,000 in the bank. I had to double check that figure. I just could not believe it. Their numbers are below both the median/mean of 2004 and 2006. This is especially surprising because they have raised more than the median/mean of 2004 and only a little less than 2006. This might be indicative of cash management troubles in these campaigns. I think this is bad news for Democrats in these races.

4. There are a few more "stragglers" in terms of funds raised. Joe Donnelly in IN 02, Brad Ellsworth in IN 08, Ken Lucas in KY 04, Chris Carney in PA 10 and Phil Kellam in VA 02 all have raised less than the mean/median of either 2006 or 2004. This, I think, is much less significant for Ellsworth and Carney because their opponents are, respectively, under-funded and under an informal public ethical scrutiny. They just need less cash because their opponents are, in varying respects, lousy. But I was very surprised to see Donnelly so under-funded, especially given the great poll numbers he has enjoyed. I know that Rahm Emanuel was working hard in the summer/fall to direct cash his way. But it might not matter against Chocola this year. I think the Democrats must be quite disappointed with both Lucas and Kellam -- who both face well-heeled opponents who do not have "baggage." Neither of them registered impressive fundraising totals by mid-Summer, and - while most of the underwhelming fundraisers in this 18 picked up the pace - these two continued to under perform.

If we take money to be a necessary, but insufficient, criterion for success - then this analysis probably dings Democratic prospects a little bit. 5 of these 18 candidates seem to have some problems. I think it could really matter for 4 of the 5.

However, the bigger question remains: how many Democratic challengers were able to do better-than-expected in terms of money? Are any marginal Democratic candidates in a position to come to the mainstream? Are these 5 the exception to a rule that will put a net of more seats on the table? I don't know yet. That will require a much more thorough sifting through the money data. Stay tuned.

Duckworth Strapped For Cash

Speaking of money, the latest filings are in and while it appears some Democrats are faring very well in the money race, Tammy Duckworth isn't one of them.

Despite having raised more money than Republican Peter Roskam this cycle overall ($2,846,923 to $2,459,989), Duckworth has only $200,000 in cash left for the last 21 days of the race. Roskam has over a million five sitting in the bank.

Eric Krol of the Daily Herald said Duckworth supporters were "left scratching their heads" at the news:

For Duckworth backers who might fear the campaign peaked too early, the response coming from her spokeswoman Monday wasn't too encouraging. Spokeswoman Christine Glunz said she didn't know how much money Duckworth has raised since Sept. 30 and didn't know when Duckworth would begin airing TV ads again. [snip]

Duckworth, a Hoffman Esates veteran who's running as a fiscal moderate, has spent her money on a large staff, expensive consultants and an early $1 million TV campaign designed to rebut a wave of attack ads run by the National Republican Campaign Committee.

Duckworth may be broke but she's not totally defenseless. Krol reports the DCCC is dropping $2.3 million in ads attacking Roskam that begin airing today. Still, given that Duckworth has already blown $2.6 million and the race is basically a dead heat, I would think Roskam has to be given the edge.

Rumors have been circulating that Roskam's internal polls show him up five points, and he is a well established figure in the district with a strong GOTV operation while Duckworth is a newcomer whose organization is mostly hired hands brought in by Rahm Emanuel and the DCCC.

This Just In...

RNC dumps $700k into ads opposing Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

Updated RCP House and Senate Rankings

We have updated our Senate and House rankings this morning. A couple of small changes on the Senate side. First, Ohio has have moved to "Lean Democrat" from the "Toss Up" category. It had been our opinion that Sherrod Brown's very liberal record in the Ohio congressional delegation would provide enough fodder for DeWine to keep this race close and coupled with the Republican GOTV make this race a toss up on election day. It may get back there, but it looks like the Republican Party's implosion in Ohio is just becoming too much for DeWine to overcome. Today's Quinnipiac poll shows DeWine moving from essentially tied in mid-September (Brown 45% - DeWine 44%) to down a sizable 12-points. Granted this is only one poll, and a Rasmussen Reports survey taken over the same time gives Brown only a 6-point lead. But with the RCP Average now at Brown +6.8%, and climbing, and with Strickland headed for a huge win in the governor's race, Sherrod Brown has to be considered the favorite.

In Montana, we have bumped Conrad Burns down to only the fourth most endangered incumbent. RCP still has the race rated "Leans Democrat" but, perhaps tellingly, Tester has not been able to put Burns away. The conservative tilt to Montana and the fact that Burns can probably expect strong national support from the GOP down the stretch gives Republicans a shot to hold this seat.

The current RCP Senate Averages project a six seat pick up for the Democrats - but that is with Missouri and Tennessee showing Democratic leads of only 1.4% and 0.8%, and these races are just too close to give either side a clear advantage. Projecting only those races where one party has greater than a 3.5% lead in the RCP Average points to a 4-6 seat pickup for Democrats in the Senate.

On the House side the polling is a lot more suspect. A rough count of RCP's updated House list looks like the Democrats would pickup some where in the neighborhood of 13 - 19 seats (they need 15 for control.) If the final three weeks of the election continue to go the same way the last fourteen days have gone for Republicans, that number could go a lot higher. But the odds would favor a pendulum swing back toward the GOP at least once in the next few weeks.

John Hostettler and Don Sherwood are the only incumbents to crack the Top 5 most vulnerable Republican held seats, and as of today it is hard to see how either of them wins. Indiana State University released a poll this week of 625 likely voters showing Hostettler down 23 points, and while he is almost certainly not down that much, Hostettler's 19th century brand of campaigning may finally catch up to him this year. In Pennsylvania 10, Sherwood's affair and assault allegation in the post-Foley environment looks likely to end his congressional career. The only other incumbent in the Top 10 is NRCC chair Tom Reynolds in New York 26 who looks to be the second direct casualty of the Mark Foley scandal, right after Foley's own seat in Florida's 16 Congressional district.

Numbers 11-20 on the list is where the House will likely be won or lost. In that group of ten seats there are eight Republicans incumbents: Ohio 15 (Deb Pryce), Indiana 2 (Chris Chocola), Pennsylvania 7 (Curt Weldon), North Carolina 11 (Charles Taylor), Connecticut 4 (Chris Shays), Indiana 9 (Mike Sodrel), New Mexico 1 (Heather Wilson), and Pennsylvania 6 (Jim Gerlach). If half of these embattled GOP incumbents can hold on, Republicans stand a good chance of hanging on to the House - but just barely.

The Parlavecchio Letter

Randy Bergmann, the editorial page editor of the Asbury Park Press, writes on his blog that Bob Menendez once did an interesting piece of "constituent service:"

In 1998, back when U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez was Rep. Menendez, he wrote a letter to federal prison officials asking that a father and son who were in jail on racketeering and drug charges be allowed to transfer to a facility closer to home, allowing them to be reunited at Fort Dix Federal Correctional Institute. A Menendez spokesman said the then-congressmen had no relationship with the mobsters, Nicholas and Antonino Parlavecchio, and that writing the letter on behalf of prisoners seeking transfers so visitation would be more convenient was not unusual.

Interesting, no? Especially since Menendez is now running a brutal ad against Tom Kean, Jr. for getting some oppo research on Menendez from a Democrat who is sitting behind bars.

Amy Fagan writes in the Washington Times this morning that Republican hopes of winning in NJ hinge on corruption charges against Menendez. But Kean has been pushing the corruption argument against Menendez since the day the news broke back in early September and after an initial round of polls showed him jumping out to a slight lead, Menendez has moved ahead in nearly every poll taken in the last three weeks and is up 3.5% in the most recent RCP Average.

October 16, 2006

Media Alert

I am going to be on Milt Rosenberg's Extension 720 tonight with Roll Call's Mort Kondracke and the Chicago Tribune's Clarence Page from 8:30 to 9:30pm Chicago time tonight. Listen live here.

A Thin Reid

Harry Reid will amend his filing to the Senate Ethics committee to make a more full and accurate accounting of his sweetheart Las Vegas land deal. Meanwhile, he's also now going to rectify a "clerical error" which saw Reid use $3,300 in campaign contributions to pay Christmas bonuses to the staff at the Ritz-Carlton building where he lives in an "upscale" condominium.

The AP quotes the former chief enforcement lawyer of the FEC as saying Reid looked to be exploiting a "gray area" in the law:

"What makes this harder for the senator is that this is his personal residence and this looks like an event that everybody else at the residence is taking out of their personal money as they're living there."

Amendments, clerical errors and gray areas. Not exactly the type of pre-election storyline Dems want to see surrounding their leader in the Senate.

Taking Shots at Joe

Lieberman and Lamont met today to debate for the first time since before the August 8 primary. Republican Alan Schlesigner was on stage as well, despite the fact he's only polling at 4%. According to the write up from the Associated Press both Schlesinger and Lamont took turns whacking Lieberman, though Lamont did apologize for the charge made by one of his supporters last week that Lieberman had lied about his civil rights record. (If you're interested, here's the spin from the Lamont camp and the Lieberman camp, respectively.)

Lieberman continues to cruise along in the polls, up a handsome 12.4% in the latest RCP Average.

More DeWine Push Back

Ken Mehlman pushes back further on the Nagourney piece in a 'hastily arranged' press conference (via The Hotline):

"So I wanted to correct the record, make clear that Ohio remains a top priority. And as I said, no state will receive more resources out of the RNC anywhere in the country than the state of Ohio this year. And there is millions more to spend in the coming three weeks, both on turnout and on message."

Saddam's Impact

Will Saddam Hussein's verdict have an impact on the U.S. election? It could be possible.

A Bit More on Today's Column

I have received some excellent comments, in the constructively critical vein, from people today about my column that operationalizes the Big 3 rankers.

A criticism that is worth discussing is whether I can come up with the averages that I did. The averages that I came up with are dependent upon the assumption that each House race is statistically independent of every other House race. In some instances, relatively few, this is a problematic assumption for my column. In others it is not.

First off - what does it mean for one observation to be statistically independent of another? It means that the observation of a "success" in one instance makes the observation of a "success" in another instance neither more nor less probable.

When would it be problematic? Take, for instance, the races in PA 06 and PA 07. These are in the same media market, and one race might be affecting another race. In that instance, we might not be able to consider them independent of one another. Democratic success in PA 06 could help induce Democratic success in PA 07.

But what about, say, FL 22 and IL 06? Is the race in Miami affecting the race in Chicago? Certainly not in a causal sense. To say that FL 22 causes IL 06 is to make a spurious causal claim. In fact, a set of causes is affecting both FL 22 and IL 06, which have no causal affect upon one another. Causally speaking, they are independent of one another. Provided that we have delineated all of the causes that are affecting these races, they are also statistically independent of one another, too.

The proviso of the last sentence is the important point. Think of it this way. Suppose we had, in the first instance, perfect information about the probability that FL 22 would switch to the Democrats, and perfect information about the probability that IL 06 would switch to the Democrats. In the second instance - we find that FL 22 switches. Would we change our estimate of IL 06? No. We would not. Why? Because we already had perfect knowledge about everything that causes IL 06. FL 22 is not one of those causes, and therefore the result in FL 22 does not induce a change in our probability distribution.

On the other hand, if we had, in the first instance, imperfect information about both races, and we found that FL 22 had indeed switched, would we change our opinion about IL 06? We might. If we believe that IL 06 and FL 22 are caused by the same set of forces, a "success" in FL 22 might incline us to update our prediction of a "success" in IL 06. This is akin to what social scientists call Bayesian updating of prior beliefs.

In other words, the column came down to the perfection of information - or, more specifically, the amount of stock you are willing to put into the rankings of the rankers. The rankers have weighed all of the various causal forces affecting each race, and have grouped them based upon those causes. If they have fully and properly delineated and weighed those causal forces, then any variation within their categories should be random. Therefore how one race goes in a given column has no effect on how another race goes.

The "if" in the last sentence is the heart of the issue. And I punted on that one. I said:

Before we get into this - note that this should not be taken as an endorsement of any of these rankings. The idea here is that I am correcting the conventional wisdom based upon the data it most frequently uses. I am not making any comments about whether that data is valid.

This was not a cheap, sophistic move on my part. It was consistent with my overarching analytical question: given that the media uses these rankings to analyze these races, do they have reasons to predict a 25+ seat blow-out? The answer is no. To argue that we should expect something more dramatic, they must be presuming that these rankers have made many pro-Republican errors in their assignments of probabilities. Have they done that? Perhaps. But the point is that this assumption violates their other assumption: that Cook, Rothenberg and CQ are valid guides. To "expect" 25 seats, rather than 15 to 18 - is to disagree with them. You are, of course, free to do that. But don't use them as your evidence for that expectation! That was my point.

Another "Denial Denial"...

...this one from Frist.

More on DeWine

A reader points out that this version of the New York Times story on DeWine has a , linked via the Columbus Dispatch, has a very interesting addition.

But Robert T. Bennett, chairman of the Ohio Republican Party, said he did not believe the reports.

"Somebody's giving out some bad information," Bennett told The Dispatch last night. "That's crazy. There is absolutely nothing to indicate that at all.

"That's contrary to what the polls say, and the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee has access to the same polls that I see. You don't get out of a 5-point race."

Interesting.

The GOP Giving Up on DeWine?

That's the story this morning from The New York Times' Adam Nagourney, who leads off an otherwise newsless and self-evident article (Basic thesis: the parties are strategic utility maximizers. My reaction: Wow...what a scoop! We haven't known that for 20+ years!) with this explosive lead:

Senior Republican leaders have concluded that Senator Mike DeWine of Ohio, a pivotal state in this year's fierce midterm election battles, is likely to be heading for defeat and are moving to reduce financial support for his race and divert party money to other embattled Republican senators, party officials said.

The decision to effectively write off Mr. DeWine's seat, after a series of internal Republican polls showed him falling behind his Democratic challenger, is part of a fluid series of choices by top leaders in both parties as they set the strategic framework of the campaign's final three weeks, signaling, by where they are spending television money and other resources, the Senate and House races where they believe they have the best chances of success.


This is extremely surprising -- so surprising that I cannot help but wonder if there is more to the story than this. We'll take it for granted that DeWine is falling behind in their internal polls - though last week the Bliss Institute's poll found him with a slight lead. What I find hard to believe is that the GOP would believe that it is an acceptable strategy for holding the Senate to do the following:
Republicans are now pinning their hopes of holding the Senate on three states -- Missouri, Tennessee and, with Ohio off the table, probably Virginia -- while trying to hold on to the House by pouring money into districts where Republicans have a strong historical or registration advantage, party officials said Sunday. Republicans also said they would run advertisements in New Jersey this week to test the vulnerability of Senator Robert Menendez, one of the few Democrats who appear endangered.
The GOP has decided that their best chance for holding the Senate is to focus on just three races? Ostensibly, they have already ceded 4 seats in all -- PA, MT, RI and now OH. That means they have to go at least 2 for 3 in these three contests. That sounds awfully risky to me.

What is more, one has to guess that the GOP knows that, ultimately, political advertising has a diminishing marginal return. One dollar does not yield a constant return of votes, thanks to the advertising "din" that is created in October. So how does pouring their vast fortunes into 3 races maximize the probability that they hold the Senate?

This article indicates that resources are going to be redirected from Ohio to Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia. That's a rational thing to do if and only if the marginal redirected dollar will do more to help the party in these other states than in Ohio. So - it is not simply enough for DeWine's chances to be falling on the wayside. It also requires that, given these falling chances, the marginal dollar is best spent in these other races rather than in the DeWine race. This implies that the party was not already going to spend everything it felt it should in these other states, which in turn implies that their resources are relatively scarce -- which is exactly the opposite of what we have been hearing from them for months. Giving up on a race that is still probably winnable - even if the chance of victory is now at 33%, for instance - is something that a party does when it is suffering from scarce resources. And that is not one of the many GOP problems this year.

And of course, this does not take into account the fact that The Washington Post on Friday reported that the GOP was making Ohio part of its Waterloo-type stand. On Friday -- the final stand was to be made in Ohio, Missouri and Tennessee. Today -- it is to be made in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia. Nagourney indicates that this is part of a "fluctuating" Republican strategy -- and he wasn't kidding!

Nor, for that matter, does it take into account the story last week from David Espo indicating that the NRC was involving itself in the Ohio Senate race, stepping on the toes of the NRSC in the process. Espo wrote:

In an unusual move, the Republican National Committee is investing heavily in television advertising in Senate races in Ohio, Tennessee and Missouri in what officials describe as a firewall strategy designed to limit Democratic gains in the Nov. 7 elections and maintain the GOP majority.
So - DeWine has gone from fire wall to down-in-flames in less than a week? It was so important to hold his seat that the RNC was stepping on the NRSC's toes -- and now they are pulling up stakes?

Nor for that matter does it take into account a subsequent paragraph in the article:

Republicans said they remained confident that the party's considerable financial advantage would allow them to hold back a Democratic onslaught over the next three weeks, and they said they were preparing to spend significantly to bulk up any Republican who their polling over the next few days suggested might be faltering.
How does this sort of strategic principle not cover the DeWine race? Did I not read just a few paragraphs up that DeWine is indeed faltering? Did DeWine insult Mehlman's tie or something last week?!

I think there is something more to the story -- and whatever that "more" is, it exists in the undetailed details implicit to this paragraph:

Mr. DeWine has proved to be a successful fund-raiser on his own, and, with $4.5 million on hand, already enjoys a large financial advantage over his Democratic opponent, Representative Sherrod Brown; he is not dependent on financial support to keep campaigning. The Republican National Committee and the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee have already spent $4.6 million on his race; party officials said they concluded that there were now simply more opportune races to focus on.
Maybe, then, the Times is drawing the wrong inference from their sources. Maybe they are interpreting Republican accounting procedures (i.e. the party being satisfied with the overall amount spent between the RNC, the NRSC and DeWine) as news of DeWine's demise. This paragraph certainly reads differently from the opener, does it not? This one reads as though DeWine is in fairly good financial shape, and the GOP is moving on to less well-heeled candidates. That certainly makes more sense.

Minimally, there seems to me to be a tension between different paragraphs of this story. And it is obvious that there are tensions between this story and the news from last week. Unfortunately, the agents who could clear it up for us, the national Republican organizations, will not do it because,

Brian Nick, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said, "The committee doesn't discuss internal strategy in terms of where financial resources are allocated."

October 15, 2006

GOP Problems Hit Minnesota

On Friday in our updated analysis of the Minnesota Senate race we suggested that:

Kennedy's problems may be a warning sign for Minnesota Republicans in both the Governor's race and Kennedy's current House seat MN-6. Both of these races Republicans were felt to have the edge, but current polls indicate toss-ups.

Today the Minneapolis Star-Tribune has a new poll out giving DFL candidate Mike Hatch a 9-point lead over Gov. Tim Pawlenty. The Star-Tribune's polls typically skew towards the Dems; their final Senate poll in the Coleman-Mondale race in 2002 gave Mondale a 5-point lead, he ended up losing by 3. In 2004 their final poll had Kerry ahead by 8-points, he won by only three. And then finally in Pawlenty's first race for Governor in 2002 he did 5 points better on election day than the Star-Tribune's final poll.

All of this is meant to point out that the 9-point lead for Hatch is probably fairly overstated. The RCP Average currently has Hatch with a 2.3% lead, which we suspect is far closer to where this race truly stands. And while down 2.5% is better than being down nine, it's not great for a Governor that many were playing up as a possible VP candidate in 2008. If the wheels don't completely come off for the GOP in these last three weeks we suspect Pawlenty will still pull it out, but he clearly finds himself caught up in the national GOP problems.

This race and the Michigan Governor's race is just another data point that gives you a good idea which way the political wind is blowing. Pawlenty who most felt was safe to hold his seat is now in real a dog fight to keep his job and Granholm in Michigan looks like she has reestablished her footing in a race the GOP had hopes for only 4-6 months ago.

The Pre-Mortem

Glenn Reynolds lays out six reasons the GOP is in trouble this cycle before concluding:

At the end of this process, the Republicans have managed to leave every segment of the base unhappy, mostly over things that weren't even all that important. It's as if they had some sort of bizarre death wish. Looks like the wish will come true . . . .

As I've said before, the Republicans deserve to lose, though alas the Democrats don't really deserve to win, either. I realize that you go to war with the political class you have, but even back in the 1990s it was obvious that we had a lousy political class. It hasn't improved, but the challenges have gotten greater. Can the country continue to do well, with such bad political leadership? I hope so, because I see no sign of improvement, no matter who wins next month.

I'm surprised profligate spending isn't on Glenn's list, because I think it points to a broader problem that connects a lot of the dots. Clearly, part of what has been so depressing to the GOP base is that there is a sense that in just 12 short years Republicans have surrendered some of the fundamental principles which swept many into office in the first place.

It is, as I've written before, a case of unfulfilled expectations. Conservatives have worked hard over the years to elect people who promised to change the culture in Washington D.C. Instead, it looks as if the culture of Washington changed them.

October 13, 2006

Adwatch '06: Fitzpatrick vs. Murphy

This is fairly devastating new stuff from incumbent Republican Mike Fitzpatrick's campaign against Democratic challenger Pat Murphy in PA08:

Murphy's latest video is a 90-second attack against Fitzpatrick over stem-cells:

Santorum's Aggressiveness

Here's a take from someone who thought Santorum KO'd Casey last night. I agree with the point that Santorum's aggressiveness seemed to be a very deliberate strategy which he used to beat on Casey during the debate and then tried to reframe to his advantage in his closing statement when he said:

"I'm a passionate guy. I'm tough, I'm a fighter. But you know what? I'm an Italian kid from a steel town. What do you expect from me? I'm a guy who had to grow up having to scratch and claw. I wasn't born into a family that had a great name. My dad's an immigrant to this country. I've worked hard, just like you do in western Pennsylvania to fight for the things you believe in."

Maybe Santorum's performance will play with voters, maybe it won't. But even if it does, last night isn't likely to change any of the underlying dynamics in this race, all of which are still working against him. Three weeks out from the election Santorum is an incumbent who is polling between 36-41%. Those numbers indicate fundamental problems with his candidacy which are unlikely to be remedied by a single debate performance - no matter how good it might have been strategically.

Family Law

Deb Price examines whether lawmakers are skirting the rules when they bring spouse and/or family members along on trips.

"Meltdown"

That's the title of the new strategy memo by James Carville, Stan Greenberg, and Ana Iparraguirre of Democracy Corps based on new polling in the 49 most competitive Republican-held congressional districts. They write:

We do not often get to write such a report -- changes so large over such a short period that they certainly portend a whole new playing field for the November election. This survey of 1,200 likely voters was conducted in only Republican-held seats, yet Democrats are ahead by 4 points overall in the named congressional vote (49 to 45 percent); indeed, they are ahead by 2 points (48 to 46 percent) in the bottom tier of presumably safest seats.

This vote represents a dramatic change in the state of the race over the last two weeks. The end of the Congress -- with the increased pessimism and anger about Iraq and the Foley scandal and subsequent partisan brawl -- has moved voters to shift their assessments of the parties and their votes. The 1994 election broke at the end; this one just broke. The shift is evident on every indicator -- party, Bush, war, intensity and morale.

The authors go on to say they believe Democrats "have a chance to consolidate gains large enough to affect congressional control over this decade." Read the rest of memo (pdf) and the full poll results (pdf) and judge credibility of that claim for yourself.

Rod's Bad Week

While we're on the subject of corruption, Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich is having one hell of a week. On Tuesday he pulled out of a debate scheduled for 10/26. The next day he refused to answer repeated questions about whether he's hired a defense lawyer to fend off an ongoing criminal probe.

On Thursday, of course, the Governor's longtime pal Tony Rezko was indicted. Today, Rezko failed to show up for court and is now considered a "fugitive."

Rod is sticking to the "I was lied to" defense, claiming his problem isn't seedy associations with corrupt individuals but naivete. But Rich Miller lays that defense bare in today's Chicago Sun-Times:

Once again, Illinoisans are forced to wonder whether their governor is an idiot or a crook or an idiotic crook. You've no doubt heard that Gov. Blagojevich's buddy Tony Rezko was indicted by the feds this week for numerous public corruption capers.

Rezko was the ultimate Rod Blagojevich insider. He raised millions of dollars for Blagojevich's campaign fund. After the election, Rezko recommended tons of people for big-time state jobs. He got people appointed to state boards and commissions, including some who "coincidentally" contributed large sums of money to Blagojevich's campaign right around the time of their appointments. There have been many such "coincidences" in the last four years.

But Rezko was more than just a political pal. Much more. Rezko was one of the governor's most trusted friends. Rezko had an eight-year business partnership with the governor's wife. They attended personal and family events together.

Rezko also appears on the governor's gift disclosure report. Actually, Rezko wasn't listed on the report until Blagojevich was visited by his friendly neighborhood FBI agents, and then suddenly the form was amended.

The Topinka campaign is finally energized and on the attack, though as I said the other day it remains unclear just how much the Rezko indictment is going to help her. This story is all over the place right now, and it could remain there for a while longer especially if Blagojevich tries to go into hiding.

Blagojevich is also still dealing with the fallout from the $1,500 gift given to his young daughter on behalf of a longtime friend that came just two weeks after a job appointment (watch the video of Rod staring blankly, stumbling and simply unable to answer reporters's questions on the matter here) and from questions about the curious nature of the recent property tax assessment on his house.

We should have new polls out in this race soon which hopefully will shed a bit of light just how much Rod's bad week has hurt.

The Election, The Spin and The Expectations Game

One consequence of the Foley scandal is that election expectations have skyrocketed for Democrats. Last week in Roll Call Stuart Rothenberg wrote: "The national atmospherics don't merely favor Democrats; they set the stage for a blowout of cosmic proportions next month." This week the National Journal's Charlie Cook writes: "The fact that the situation has turned grim for the GOP can hardly be disputed......for Republicans to salvage their majorities in the House and Senate, quite a bit would have to change"

After Speaker Hastert's press conference one week ago David Shuster reported to Chris Mathews:

Every Republican that we spoke to today said this has almost guaranteed that the Republicans are not going to keep control of Congress.

If this is anything like Shuster's reporting on Karl Rove's imminent indictment in the Plamegate scandal, perhaps Republicans are a lock to hold onto Congress. But that is another story.

George Will got into the act as well:

If after the Foley episode -- a maraschino cherry atop the Democrats' delectable sundae of Republican miseries -- the Democrats cannot gain (the House), they should go into another line of work.

Howard Fineman added:

If the Democrats can't take the Hill now, they deserve to go the way of the Whigs.

So what happens if we wake up Wednesday morning after the election and the Democrats have failed to take either chamber on Capitol Hill? Given the expectations that have been hyped these last two weeks (and really the entire year), it is not going to be hard for Republicans and President Bush to claim an enormous victory.

The reality will not be quite that black and white, of course. In many ways the absolute worst thing for the GOP (not necessarily President Bush) would be to hold Democratic gains in the House to 13 seats and go into the next Congress with a totally unmanageable four-vote majority. It can credibly be argued they would be better off for so many different reasons to lose 17 seats and give Nancy Pelosi the unenviable chore of managing a four-seat majority.

Holding the Senate has higher strategic value for Republicans, even if it comes with Vice President Cheney voting to break a 50-50 tie. However, in the bigger historical picture losing 4 or 5 Senate seats is hard to spin as good news for the GOP given early expectations in this cycle. Democrats were defending six states they won with 51% or less in 2000, including Florida and Nebraska - both winnable races for the GOP if they had just fielded their best candidates. The same can be said of North Dakota, which in total gave the GOP seven states they should have been able to make very competitive this election. Instead Republicans are stuck hoping that Menendez's ethical lapses in New Jersey will keep them from being totally shut out.

Now to be fair elections don't occur in vacuums and the relatively poor job approval numbers for President Bush, voter frustration over the mess in Iraq along with the 6-yr midterm trends in favor of the out party are rather powerful forces working for the Democrats. And at the end of the day strategizing Senate cycles into the future is only of so much value because of the tendency of the real world to intrude. September 11, 2001 is a perfect example.

It can argued both ways which party benefits more from winning control of the Senate or the House in 2006, but what really can't be disputed given the expectations and hype that have preceded this election is that a failure of the Democrats to capture at least one chamber in the next Congress will be seen as a victory for President Bush. And if that were to happen that would make him 4 for 4 in elections since 2000, something his critics should ponder.

The Party is Over for Bob Ney

Republican Congressman Bob Ney pled guilty to taking bribes from Jack Abramoff in federal court today. He's facing up to 10 years in prison and $500,000 worth of fines.

Among those connected to Abramoff's extra-legal largesse, Ney is unique in that it was well known he was person referred to as "Representative #1" in Abramoff's January plea agreement. Since that time, I 've often wondered why Ney never showed enough decency or loyalty to the Republican party to step aside earlier. Consider the arc of the Ney story over the last ten months:

- January 3: Exposed as Representative #1 in Abramoff guilty plea
- January 20: Announces bid for reelection
- May 2: Wins primary in OH-18 with 68% of the vote
- May 18: House Ethics Committee announces investigation
- August 14: Withdraws from race
- September 15: News of guilty plea becomes public
- October 12: Pleas guilty in federal court

In retrospect it looks even worse, because Ney lied his way through the primary protesting his innocence even though he probably had a pretty good idea even at that point that he wasn't going to beat the rap against him. (The Republican leadership bears some of the blame as well for not taking a stronger stand against Ney earlier, by the way).

Through a combination of arrogance, ambition, and corruption Ney has arrived at the worst of all possible outcomes: he's going to prison next year as a convicted felon, and by dragging out the process (culminating with a guilty plea 3 weeks before the midterm elections) he's done about as much damage as he could possibly do to the Republican party under the circumstances.

Quote of the Day

"It's going to be nice not to have Hugo Chavez across the Connecticut River representing Vermont at-large. Bernie Sanders and his Sander-nistas should go back to taxi-driving in the Bronx of New York City, where they came from to begin with." - Republican Charlie Bass, caught on tape at a private fundraiser taking a jab at Bernie Sanders.

Bass's opponent, Paul Hodes, called the remarks offensive, but Bass responded: "I guess it's just a reflection on the fact that you can't really have fun anymore in a campaign. I had no ill will of any sort against anybody or any place or anything. It was all said as a couple of introductory lines in jest. I apologize if anybody was offended, but quite honestly I just think we've reached a point where you can't make a joke."

Courage Under Fire

As a follow up to my post the other day, here's another story worth reading: " NH Guardsman wins Silver Star for valor while under fire."

This Just In...

Jim Vandehei of the Washington Post reports the Dems have taken a liking to the "politics of personal destruction" in the wake of the Mark Foley scandal.

Harry's Hang Up

The details surrounding the Las Vegas land deal of Minority Leader Harry Reid that exploded onto the scene Tuesday afternoon may or may not turn out to be unethical. The most fascinating part of the story so far, at least to me, is the one that's been least commented on: the hang up.

Hang ups come in a few different varieties. There's the accidental "I had the phone pinched between my shoulder and my ear and hit the wrong button" hang up, and there's also the "I'm so enraged I can't stand it any more" slam the phone down hang up.

Harry's hang up was different. It was an "I'm above answering these questions from you" type of hang up, and one that could be fairly characterized as a bizarre mixture of petulance and contempt.

Let's assume for the moment that the land deal is exactly what Harry Reid says it is: a simple, straightforward, perfectly legal transaction that is being misreported or blown out of proportion. Why on earth wouldn't Reid simply state as much for the record? He could have said "we've been over all this before," or he could have said "you are way off base." Heck, he could have said just about anything. Instead, Reid hung up.

If you believe actions speak louder than words, what are we to make of the fact that the most powerful Democratic elected official in the country feels like he can just hang up in the middle of a tape recorded interview with the largest news syndicate in America?

Florida 13

A month ago I speculated about the negative effect Katherine Harris is having in her old Congressional district. Things have only gotten worse since then.

This week Democrat Christine Jennings released another poll showing her lead over Republican Vern Buchanan expanding to 12 points (50-38) from eight points last month. Also this week, a new independent poll by RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics shows Jennings leading Buchanan by four (47-44).

So is Jennings really ahead? I think so, especially since this is how Buchanan's spokesperson responded to the Jennings poll:

Buchanan spokeswoman Sally Tibbetts disputed the poll's findings but would not release any poll numbers to refute it.

"Our internal polling shows that the momentum is on Vern's side," she said, adding that Buchanan's polls show him "within the statistical margin of error."

Again, the only poll that counts is the one taken on election day, and Republicans have a solid registration advantage in the district, so it comes down to a matter of turnout. With Charlie Crist running strong in the Governor's race but Katherine Harris lagging badly in the Senate contest, the GOP ticket in Florida is a mixed bag - especially for Buchanan in Harris's old district. If Buchanan does manage to pull this one out, it'll only be by a hair.

Three Big Debates

There were some big senate debates last night. Here are the round ups:

Pennsylvania - Santorum vs. Casey: The Philadelphia Inquirer characterized the debate as "barroom brawl - minus the fists." And the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette was even more descriptive

The two candidates interrupted each other, talked over each other, ignored time limits, ignored the moderator and generally stopped just short of playground name-calling and shin-kicking.

To say that KDKA moderator Ken Rice lost control of yesterday's debate between U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum and state Treasurer Bob Casey would be fallacious, because it suggests that he ever had control to begin with.

Reading the two round ups it looks as if Santorum got the better of Casey, but it doesn't seem as if he landed any knockout blows or that Casey made any life-threatening gaffes.

The most recent Morning Call poll with Casey up only 5 points has given Santorum some hope, but other recent polls show him trailing by twice that, and he's behind by 9.8% in the RCP Average.

Washington - Cantwell vs. McGavick: The Seattle Times describes their short 30-min debate as "frosty but civil." Right after the debate in Spokane the two candidates met again before the editorial board of the Spokane Spokesman-Review. The Seattle PI reports that "Neither candidate landed any crippling blows during the two polite face-offs....That wasn't good news for McGavick, who needs something to boost his lagging poll numbers."

Cantwell does have this race pretty much in hand at the moment, leading by 9.4% in the RCP Average.

Montana - Burns vs. Tester: The Helena Independent Record says the two men disagreed "pointedly" about every issue except one (not invading North Korea) before a packed house last night.

Tester has maintained a small but stable lead in this race all year long, and at the moment there doesn't seem any reason to believe that won't continue through the last three weeks. Tester leads Burns by 5.0% in the latest RCP Average.

October 12, 2006

UNH Granite Poll

A new UNH Granite Poll (pdf) shows McCain continuing to lead the race for 2008 in New Hampshire with 32%. Giuliani remains in second with 19%, and Mitt Romney has moved up to 15% from the high single digits into third place. Fourteen percent remain undecided. On the Dem side it is Hillary 30%, Edwards 16%, Gore 10%, Kerry 9%, Biden 5%, Clark 4%, and 17% undecided.

Brit Army Chief Drops Bomb on Blair

General Sir Richard Dannatt, Chief of the General Staff of the British Army, blasts Tony Blair (and, by association, George Bush) on Iraq in a just-released interview with the Daily Mail, saying the Brits should get out "sometime soon." More from the Daily Mail:

But it is Sir Richard's views of the situation in Iraq that will enrage Downing Street.

He says clearly we should "get ourselves out sometime soon because our presence exacerbates the security problems."

"We are in a Muslim country and Muslims' views of foreigners in their country are quite clear."

As a foreigner, you can be welcomed by being invited in a country, but we weren't invited certainly by those in Iraq at the time.

"The military campaign we fought in 2003 effectively kicked the door in. Whatever consent we may have had in the first place, may have turned to tolerance and has largely turned to intolerance."

"That is a fact. I don't say that the difficulties we are experiencing round the world are caused by our presence in Iraq but undoubtedly our presence in Iraq exacerbates them." [snip]

"I think history will show that the planning for what happened after the initial successful war fighting phase was poor, probably based more on optimism than sound planning," he said.

"The original intention was that we put in place a liberal democracy that was an exemplar for the region, was pro West and might have a beneficial effect on the balance within the Middle East."

"That was the hope, whether that was a sensible or naïve hope history will judge. I don't think we are going to do that. I think we should aim for a lower ambition."

This is not some leftwing Labour