Paul Green and Michael Redmond have a good analysis on the Illinois Governor's race in today's Chicago Sun-Times. They argue Judy Baar Topinka must do the following three things to win in November:

One: Given the real possibility of a larger-than-usual Cook County vote (due to the County Board president race), Topinka must find a way to cut the governor's winning percentage in this Democratic stronghold. In 2002 Blagojevich garnered 67 percent of the Cook County vote -- a similar performance by him in 2006 could by itself doom Topinka's statewide hopes.

Two: The five collars [DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will counties] must go overwhelmingly for Topinka and up Jim Ryan's 2002 winning percentage (58 percent) by at least 5 percentage points. Key here is whether "social conservative" Republicans will support their party's nominee or reject her because of her moderate views on abortion and gay rights.

Three: Traditional GOP north and north-central Downstate counties must have big turnouts and a huge Topinka vote. The recent Downstate bus caravan was perhaps Topinka's shrewdest political move so far in the campaign.

What's interesting is how the Governor's contest may impact the races in Illinois 6 and Illinois 8, two of the most competitive House races in the country. There's very little enthusiasm on either side of the Governor's race right now: conservatives are lukewarm on Topinka and Democrats' feelings toward Rod Blagojevich range from indifferent to deeply disappointed.

But in the "deep red" collar counties of which IL-6 and IL-8 are both composed, that lack of enthusiasm represents more of a disadvatage to Republicans Peter Roskam and Dave McSweeney, though it's hard to say just how much. At best, both men are going to have to earn every vote, because they aren't going to get any help from the top of the ticket.