So we've finally reached the home stretch. The GOP has made its agenda clear: immigration is on the shelf, and the focus will be national security, spending, with tax cuts and a potential battle over judges thrown in as well.

The Washington Post plays up the potential political effect of rising interest rates this morning, but gas prices are more potent as a political issue and, as Larry mentions below, they're dropping in a very noticeable way. That could potentially benefit Republicans if it continues. (Related note: promising new oil find in Gulf of Mexico. Who's against drilling, again?)

Democrats have made their agenda clear as well: work to tie every candidate in the country to President Bush, pushing a theme of "incompetence" that runs from Iraq to Katrina to the economy to homeland security. As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, this is going to require Dems to thread a needle here in the last sixty days, keeping up pressure on Iraq while dodging the perception of being soft on national security - especially as Republicans pound them over the terrorist surveillance program, the Patriot Act, etc. in the coming weeks.

Efforts to put together a coherent positive agenda have largely failed to materialize, and Democrats are left hoping that "nothing will beat something," which is to say they hope public anxiety and dispproval of President Bush and Republicans (or, nearly as desirable, anger at incumbents in general) will be enough to carry the day and give them control.

As things stand right now, the Dems seem poised on the cusp of success. Again, as Larry points out in his post with the Tradesports numbers, this is going to be a very close election. Barring some significant turnaround Republicans are almost certainly going to lose seats, the question is whether the loss will end up being greater or less than 15 in the House and 6 in the Senate. Now that it's finally game on, the picture is going start coming into better focus as we head toward November 7.