RCP was ahead of the curve in ranking this race as a toss up when most of the other major analysts rated New Jersey as Leans Democrat (Rothenberg being the exception). Charlie Cook moved it to a toss up yesterday, and with the news of the federal probe into Menendez's finances along with continued polling showing Menendez stuck in the high 30's and low 40's, expect the full consensus to move towards the reality that this race is indeed a toss up.

Republicans have not won statewide since Christine Todd Whitman in '97, but the string of NJ Democratic scandals highlighted by the Lautenberg/Torricelli swap and then the McGreevy scandals might have exhausted the New Jersey public's tolerance for business-as-usual politics in New Jersey. Tom Kean, Jr. being the son of the moderate, and popular, former Gov. Tom Kean is ideologically and temperamentally well suited to win statewide, and is in a strong position to pick this seat up for the GOP.

We would even be inclined to move this race to Lean Republican if it were not for the strong Democratic machine still in power. Expect this race to be close, and ugly, but if Menendez can't get his numbers up above 45%, and soon, he is quickly going to become the underdog.