Maryland continues to be a major sleeper race in the battle for the Senate. The morning after last week's Democratic primary I suggested:

The conventional wisdom for Maryland has always been that an Mfume win is what the GOP needed to really put this traditionally Democratic seat in play. However a Cardin win may lay the foundation for the same path to victory Gov. Bob Ehrlich followed in 2002. Now 2002 was a very different year in tone and tenor for Republicans, and at the end of the day, the current macro-negativity toward President Bush and the GOP is what makes Cardin the clear favorite here in the general. However, Steele should not be counted out in this race.

An unenthusiastic black vote was a crucial element to Ehrlich's win four years ago, and the rejection of Mfume will not help the Democrats in that regard. So not only will Cardin likely be looking at smaller than otherwise black turnout, Steele as the first African-American to win statewide in MD, is perfectly positioned to challenge for a large portion of Maryland's sizable African-American electorate. A smaller black turnout overall, coupled with Steele perhaps capturing 30% of the statewide African-American vote, could make this a very interesting race election night

Just last night WMAR-TV in Baltimore released a poll done by SurveyUSA giving Steele a one point lead 48% - 47%, and more importantly showing him receiving 33% of the African-American vote. That 33% number is more than double the 15% African-American support for Republican Governor Bob Ehrlich in the same poll. While Maryland Democrats are working hard to paper over any lingering animosity from the primary, Mfume's much closer than expected loss (the final was 43.5 %- 40.6%) has produced a quiet bitterness in parts of the black political community toward Cardin and the Md. Dem establishment. With the Ehrlich - O'Malley race for Governor likely to tighten and be extremely close at the finish, if Steele can maintain that 30%+ support among black voters this race becomes a total toss up.