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Cantwell Finds Her Antiwar Groove

Josh Feit writes in the Stranger this week that Maria Cantwell has finally found her footing with an antiwar message that sells:

On Saturday, August 19, at a Maria Cantwell rally just outside Vancouver, Washington, the U.S. Democratic senator scored the biggest cheers of the afternoon with her new and improved position on the war. "Changing the agenda means changing the course in Iraq," Senator Cantwell said, to a burst of applause. "The president says we can stay there for as long as it takes. I disagree. I say, 'Let's make sure... we start to bring our troops home at the end of this year.'"

Upon closer inspection, Feit finds that while Cantwell's "new and improved" position seems to be placating the antiwar base of the Democratic party in Washington, it's more of a rhetorical smoke-and-mirror job than a real substantive shift. Nevertheless, if Cantwell can succeed in bringing even a portion of these voters home before November it will be a solid boost to her campaign.

Right now, Cantwell's lead over Republican Mike McGavick stands at 9 points. That number is inflated a bit by a new SurveyUSA poll showing her with a 17-point lead. Three other polls released in the last two weeks show the race between 5 and 8 points. The first batch of polls after Labor Day will show exactly where this race stands. If Cantwell busts out to a double digit lead in the RCP average, the race is probably over. If McGavick can keep it close - meaning 5-7 points or better - with the debates and a bit of luck, he'll make it to election day with at least a chance of scoring an upset.