I didn't get to see the President's speech last night or the usual punditry that always follows, which is important in gauging how the politics will play. But after watching the speech this morning and from what I have seen and heard so far, it looks like the President missed a huge opportunity.

Leadership, something that has been President Bush's strongest asset, is what the country desperately needs on the polarizing issue of immigration. Instead, what we got appears to be a 2006 version of the status-quo immigration policies of the last 20 years. Bush missed a real opportunity to help fix a substantive problem facing the nation which politically would have significantly improved his standing among the public and his party's position heading into the midterm elections.

The seeds of any compromise that would be acceptable to the President's conservative base starts with an acknowledgment that the government has failed to secure the border and halt illegal immigration in the 20 years since Simpson-Mazzoli. Had the President made it clear that starting last night the federal government was going to put in motion what had to be done to seriously halt the flow of illegals, he would have laid the groundwork for an overall compromise that would include a pathway to citizenship or "amnesty."

The only way a huge portion of the President's base would accept what would be an effective amnesty is if they felt the government was finally serious about stopping illegal immigration. While there are many pieces to halting the flow of illegal immigration, the solution at its core is some sort of a fence. Without a fence and a real commitment, conservatives (correctly) view the President's proposal as a redo of the failed Simpson-Mazzaoilli legislation.

A week ago I had been prepared to make the case that the negativity toward the President and Republican prospects this fall had been way overdone by the media, and that the President and the GOP hold considerably higher cards than is conventionally thought by DC pundits. But the President cannot to continue to keep missing on opportunities to lead.

Energy and immigration are two enormous issues staring the country in the face and this President, who has led so ably on the war and the economy, appears to be taking a pass.

We will have to watch how the political dynamic unfolds over the coming days and weeks, but my initial reaction is instead of unifying the Republican base - a base that was definitely in need of unification given the current polls - the President simply pushed a huge issue that is splitting the GOP right back into the spotlight.

All election campaigns have big moments where candidates and parties have to take advantage of opportunities that present themselves. In 2004, John Kerry had two huge opportunities in his VP pick and his acceptance speech. He blew both of them. Last night was one of those chances for Bush (and in turn '06 Republicans) and the President blew it as well. Just like Kerry's chances fell after the Edwards pick and his convention speech, Republican chances this fall took a hit last night.